Author Archives: Dave French

Bangor

Sorry for the delay with today's post, I wanted to share a tip with you from the Racing Consultants tipping service but needed to delay to ensure that paying members had plenty of time to get the price before I send it out.

There is a half price trial running at the Racing Consultants and the 3 month offer work out very cheap. The RC service is very consistent and I understand that people who run with it for three months very rarely leave. https://racingconsultants.co.uk

Module hasn’t had much racing since being placed in the Champion Chase a few years ago, but while some will view his switch to hunter chases as a sign that he’s gone at the game, I would actually see it very differently, as Tom George is hell-bent on pushing son Noel’s career as an amateur rider, and he will be keen to provide as many winners as he can for the teenager in this sphere.

Module missed an engagement through cancellation earlier in the week, and will be suited by the track and trip at Bangor, and he ought to be favourite ahead of Barrakilla and Silver Roque on past form.

That pair don’t have any advantages over him in terms of fitness, and whether Silver Roque will be as effective under rules now family-trained as he was with Fergal O’Brien is open to debate. It’s intriguing to note, though, that Mary Vestey happens to be Henrietta Knight’s niece.

2.45 Bangor –  win bet  Module Betfair Sportsbook are still showing 5/1 as I type

There will be no post tomorrow. John Burke will be back on Monday and David Massey will be back with us on Tuesday.

John Burke Day

I was looking around for inspiration this morning trying to decide what to share with you and John Burkes work appeared in a few places I looked so I thought let's make it John Burke day.

You already know that John writes the Monday column here at Daily Punt and that he is the man behind the Victor Value tipping service (Try for £1 here)

He also posts daily stats based tips for members of the Betting School Insiders Club and is covering the Meydan Winter Festival at Betting School also.

And he writes for the On Course Profits magazine we mentioned yesterday.

So today I've got his tips from the Betting School and an interesting article from On Course Profits.

John's article is entitled

Improve Your Horse Race Analysis

Key Factors: How many is too many?

In it he argues that we should restrict our form research to just a few key factors about each horse and that information overload can turn us all into losers.

John also shares some academic research conducted in North America which armed horse racing tipsters with various amounts of information and asked then to pick the likely winner from the form they were provided.

Interestingly with only 5 items of information, the handicapper’s accuracy in identifying approximately 18% of winners was almost exactly the same as when they had 40 pieces of information to work with.

Three of the eight tipsters became less accurate the more data they were provided with, three were equally accurate with 5 items of form and 40 and only two were more accurate with the full 40 data points.

You can read the full article here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/improve-horse-race-analysis/

Below is John's post from the Betting School members forum for today's domestic racing…

THURSDAY KEY STAT POINTERS

HUNTINGDON

Trainer David Pipe is 5 winners from 21 runners 24% +16 10 placed 48% with his runners in handicaps at the track since 2014. That record is much improved if you focus on when he just sends the one runner to the course – 5 winners from 11 runners 45% +25.13 A/E 2.78 7 placed 64%. Dell’ Arca is is sole runner at the course today.

I was going to go each way on his chance in this handicap hurdle but two of the nine declared runners are also declared to run at Towcester so we could be down to just the seven runners.

2:50 – Dell’Arca – 16/1 @ Lads & BV

Trainer Harry Whittington is 5 winners from 14 runners 36% +11 8 placed 57% in the past 4 years at Huntingdon and he saddles one runner today Hoke Colburn in the 3:55.

The 6-year-old Hoke Colburn won a handicap hurdle over 2m 4f at Southwell on his last start 79 days ago. That win came on good ground but he won a NHF race on soft going back in May 2016. The handicapper has put him up 4lb for that win but this will only be his 6th start over hurdles so there is every chance he can defy his new mark. Steps up 3m today but on pedigree there is a chance he will stay and he shaped on his last run that further would suit.

3:55 – Hoke Colburn -6/1 @ B365 & BV

TOWCESTER

Henry Oliver is a trainer whose runners in handicaps are worth having onside at Towcester. Since the start of 2014 he’s had 8 winners from 19 runners 42% +23.93 A/E 1.94 12 placed 63%. He also is a trainer who does well with his handicap hurdle debutants – 7 winners from 24 runners 29% +24.5 A/E 2.3 12 placed 50% since 2014.

Fairy Pol is his runner in the 2m 3f handicap hurdle at 2:55. The 5-year-old has only had the four starts under rules and won a maiden hurdle here over 2m back in October. The mare seems to be improving with her races and makes her handicap debut here. A mark of 117 is tough but she has scope for a bit more progress. At a double figure price it might be wise to go each way about her chance here.

2:55 – Fairy Pol – 12/1 @ WH

Good luck with all your Bets

Cheers
John

Mudslingers

We've lost all the turf racing in the UK today but we have racing at Fairyhouse and there's a runner there that qualifies on a system that was published in this months On Course Profits magazine.

I've pasted below the introduction to the article and have included the selection that the system picked today…

Horse Racing trainers to make a profit on heavy ground, The Mudslingers including Willie Mullins

A few years ago, I created a betting system based on trainers whose runners excel under testing ground conditions. We trialled this over at the Betting School and we made a tidy profit from the mudslingers.Continue Reading

Future Security

With David away for a few days I'm going to try and find you something interesting to read and a tip each day in the hope that you don't miss him too much.

Today I have a selection from John Burke, who writes the Monday column here and who also posts daily stats bets in the Betting School Insiders Club members forum and that is where today's tip has been taken from (with permission of course).Continue Reading

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