Hi all,
Qipco Champions Day has arrived and it’s the best card of the flat season. I’ve previewed the first six races on the card over the last two days, so no need to cover old ground here.
Inside today’s main piece, I’m looking at the always-competitive Balmoral Handicap that closes the meeting. You’ll also find my verdicts on the other races on the card — everything bar the uncompetitive Long Distance Cup.
You can watch all seven races live on ITV Racing this afternoon so enjoy the show.
Ascot – Qipco Champions Day
4:40 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) (Class 2) – 1m
Key trends point the way in this big-field handicap. Nine of the last 11 winners of the Balmoral Handicap ran at either Ascot or Newmarket last time, with five coming from the 7f handicap at Ascot’s previous meeting (won this year by Native Warrior) and three from the Cambridgeshire.
The draw often plays its part — low numbers have historically held sway. Only Escobar (21) has won drawn higher than stall 11. Those drawn 12+ are 1 winner from 112 runners, 21 places. Last year’s winner came out of stall 5 but the next 8 home were drawn in 22,18.21,14,17,23,19 & 20 suggesting the low draw bias may not be as strong as it looks.
All 11 winners had run within the previous 11–25 days, while eight of the last 11 had an official rating between 101–105, producing +73.5 points profit to SP.
Applying the draw and days since last run filters gives you the following results:
That’s 90% of the winners from 25% of the total runners in the race in the last 11 years.
The above filters narrow the field down to six: Native Warrior, Fifth Column, Arisaig, Great Acclaim, Ebt’s Guard, and Tribal Chief.
Balmoral Trends Shortlist
Native Warrior has won his last two on Ascot’s straight course and thrives in big fields. Even under a 6lb penalty, he should go close again.
Fifth Column probably didn’t stay 1m1f in the Cambridgeshire, so the return to a mile looks a plus. His yard has yet to win this race but has had five seconds from 15 runners.
Arisaig hasn’t won this season but was a good third in a Group 2 at Goodwood. She’s ground versatile, nicely treated, and has Jamie Spencer — a master on Ascot’s straight track — back in the saddle.
Great Acclaim has been in fine form and finished fourth, three lengths behind Native Warrior last time. First-time cheekpieces could eke out more improvement, and he shouldn’t be far away.
Ebt’s Guard has been a credit to connections all year. He ran better than his Cambridgeshire eighth suggests, travelling well before not lasting home over 1m1f. Back at a mile, he looks a solid player.
Tribal Chief won at Goodwood two runs ago but disappointed in the Cambridgeshire. Softer ground would help, and he may be better on a sharper track rather than Ascot’s straight mile.
Balmoral Verdict
Normally, you want a patiently ridden horse over Ascot’s straight mile. However, there’s little obvious pace here despite 20 runners. Both Native Warrior and Arisaig finish strongly but may not get the race run to suit. A slower over gallop would favour the more prominent runners like Fifth Column, Ebt’s Guard, and Great Acclaim.
Here’s my verdicts on the other races on the card.
1:30 – Two-Year-Old Test
Words Of Truth has the most obvious claims, but Siren Suit and Gentle George are a couple of unexposed juveniles who could easily take a big step forward.
2:05 – Sprint Showdown
An open Group 1 with a handicap-sized field of 20. Lazzat is top on ratings and will take some beating. Kind Of Blue won this last year and looks primed to follow up. If they go hard up front, Montassib could swoop late, while Rayevka returns to the C&D where she went close in the Commonwealth Cup.
2:45 – Fillies’ Battle
Kalpana might well repeat last year’s win, but both she and Estrange look vulnerable at short odds. Nine of the last ten winners were drawn between stalls 8 and 12, which brings One Look and French challenger Latakia firmly into play. One Look shaped like she’d stay 1m4f after finishing strongly in the Prix de l’Opera. Latakia didn’t stay 1m6f or handle the soft in the Prix de Royallieu and looks a danger back in trip on better ground. Waardah is an improving 3yo who can go close if taking another step forward.
3:25 – Mile Championship Clash
If Field Of Gold returns to his best, he’ll take some stopping. Never So Brave loves good ground and is a major player, while course specialist Docklands shouldn’t be underestimated.
4:05 – Champion Stakes Showpiece
Ombudsman will be hard to beat if he gets a strong pace to chase. Calandagan thrives on a good gallop and could be the one to follow him home, ahead of Delacroix. Economics is talented, and dangerous first time up and I'm not ruling out Almeric either who I think is future Group 1 winner.
I’ll be back Monday to review what should be a memorable Champions Day.
Good luck with your Champions Day bets.
John