Bangor Selection

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I have few thoughts on Cheltenham. Plus, I preview Bangor-on-Dee’s staying handicap chase.

Some pundits have been taking about the Cheltenham Festival since the Paddy Power Meeting and even before. I have tried to avoid too much Festival chat this winter. However, with just over a month to go to the start of the four biggest days in jump racing I think it’s time to get into Cheltenham mode. 

Between now and the start of the festival. I will be looking at all the Cheltenham Festival news & betting, most likely in the Friday column.  However, before all that here are some thoughts on the Grand National entry. The entries for April’s Grand National came out on Wednesday.

Grand National: Entries should set off alarm bells!

Just 85 have been entered for this year’s race which isn’t great and they’re hardly a stellar bunch either.

Gordon Elliott has no fewer than 21 entries. That’s just ten less than the number of British trained runners. It’s not impossible that Elliott will have more than 25% of the total runners on the day.

There are just 31 entries from the home based team and if Irish horses weren’t allowed there wouldn’t be enough British trained runners to reach the maximum field size of 40.

The home team has now been reduced by one as Iwilldoit who was one of the leading British contenders will be forced to miss this year's race as he won't be qualified. He's only had five starts over the larger obstacles and he was due to run in Saturday's Denman Chase to qualify for Aintree. However, he misses that race due to the quick ground.

There has to be something wrong with the qualification criteria for the race when a previous Welsh Grand National & Warwick Classic Chase winner can't get into the race.

Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, and Nigel Twiston-Davies have just one entry each and Jonjo O’Neill doesn’t have any. Northern based, including Scottish, trainers have just four entries between them.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to get into the race. Since 2016 you had to have had an Official Rating (OR) of 142 to get a run. And just 20 of the British trained runners for this year’s renewal are on or above that mark.

You can understand why British trainers aren’t bothering to enter horses with OR below 140. Why waste £5,000 when your horse has zero chance of getting into race? It’s a worrying trend and the warning lights should be flashing at the BHA.

Betfair Hurdle

Connections of the well fancied Gin Coco announced on Wednesday that the 7-year-old would miss Saturday’s race and go for the County Hurdle instead.

The going at Newbury was being forecast as good on Thursday morning. However, no rain is forecast, and I will be surprised if it’s not good to firm on Saturday. Looking at the going at other tracks in recent weeks. The times have been much quicker than the official going description so we can only imagine what Newbury will be like.

The ground will be quick, but it won’t be unsafe. However, we know that many trainers won’t run their horses with firm in the going description and for others the closeness of the ‘Almighty Cheltenham Festival’ is too much of a lure.

I’m surprised but delighted that the field sizes seemed to have held up remarkably well at Newbury. Despite the forecast quick ground 18 of the 23 entries for the Betfair Hurdle were declared on yesterday. We could lose the odd one on the day but there’s a good chance we’ll get the 16 runners for each way purposes.

Cheltenham News

Let’s begin by looking at some Cheltenham Festival news and the difference between the two courses at Prestbury Park.

It might just be me, but I don’t think the jumps season has really taken off. I’m putting that down to mostly dry autumn and winter. That means this year’s festival must be something spectacular to prevent this winter jumps campaign being a bit of a damp squid.

My ante post bets have been few and far between for this year’s Festival. Indeed, I have had just two and one of those wasn’t even entered in the race I had bet him.  I’m now left with just Appreciate It in the Turners Novices Chase.

There was a fair few that I liked but I wasn’t quick enough to take advantage of the big prices at the time. The likes of Marine Nationale, Banbridge and Corbett’s Cross come to mind. All available at much bigger odds for their respective targets than now.

Tom Segal (Pricewise) has put up Comfort Zone for the Triumph Hurdle. Regular readers of the column will know that I like the horse. After his win on Cheltenham Trials Day. I wrote in this column:

“He’s very professional, and just gets the job done and he’s proved his effectiveness at the track”.

The defeat of Lossiemouth at the Dublin Racing Festival has opened-up the Triumph Hurdle as a race. It doesn’t surprise me that Tom has put up Comfort Zone at 10/1 for the race.

Old Course and New Course

May punters tend to forget Cheltenham has two courses, the ‘Old’ and ‘New’ Courses. Both are left handed and undulating and horses still come must come up the famous Cheltenham Hill. However, there are subtle difference between the two.

Old Course

Earlier in the season both the Showcase Meeting and the November (Paddy Power) Meeting are run on the Old Course as are the first two days of the festival. Its slightly sharper than the New Course and suits strong travellers and horses ridden prominently.

New Course

The New Course is used for the International Meeting (December), the New Year’s Day Meeting, Festival Trials Day and the final two day’s of the festival.

As you can see from the Racing Post Course Map. There’s as emphasis on stamina on the hurdles track with just one hurdle to be jumped in the final six furlongs. That gives more patiently ridden horses a chance in races like the Pertemps & County Hurdles.

The Gold Cup is also run on the New Course which puts an emphasis on stamina. That said I wouldn’t be put off by a horse that like to keep up with the pace. Indeed, both Coneygree (2015) and Native River (2018) made all to win the race.

Friday racing

There are jump cards at Bangor and Kempton and an all-weather card at Southwell this afternoon. Evening fixtures at Dundalk & Chelmsford conclude the Friday action.

The most valuable meeting isn’t in this part of the world though. It’s over at Meydan at the Dubai Winter Carnival.  I could have gone for a selection at Meydan but there’s an interesting race at Bangor-on-Dee.

Bangor-on-Dee

2:20 – RPM North Wales National Handicap Chase (3m 5 ½ f)

Despite good to soft, good in places ground, fourteen are set to line up for this marathon handicap chase.

It probably says something about the runners that 12 of the 14 are wearing some sort of headgear.  I have slimmed the race down to four contenders.

The Questioner a winner at Ascot over hurdles in November. The 7-year-old made a winning chase debut at Doncaster (3m 2f) last month. Up 6lb but open to improvement for the step up in trip.

Conquredalofeurope has run well on all three chase starts since joining present connections.  Granted he’s now a 10 race maiden over fences but the return to today’s trip will suit and he’s on a fair mark.

Don Herbager won this race 12 months ago on heavy ground. Not at his best on either start this season but he was better at Exeter last time. This has likely been the plan once more. However, drying ground would be a concern.

No ground concerns for No Cruise Yet who won on good ground at Carlisle last March. The 8-year-old hasn’t been seen since winning at Haydock (3m 4 ½ f) in November. He jumped soundly at Haydock and remains unexposed at marathon trips like this. A 3lb rise demands more from him but I’m hopeful he’ll be able to defy it.

Friday selection:

Yesterday's selection Hydroplane ran like an old Yak. I should have taken heed of the trainer form with Ian Williams being 0-18 in the previous 14-days. The Williams horses just haven't been running well. Today's selection is also from a yard who has gone 27-days and 11 runners since a win but has had several go well this week.

Bangor-on-Dee

2:20 – No Cruise Yet – 6/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Friday bets.

John