Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree.
The Becher Handicap Chase: Aintree’s Winter Examination
The Becher Handicap Chase is one of the most fascinating races of the jumps season. Run at Aintree each December over 3m2f, it’s a proper stamina and jumping test on winter ground.
First staged in 1992, the Becher has become a key early-season trial for National hopefuls. It shows whether horses cope with the unique Grand National fences over a staying trip. Get it right here and bigger ambitions can follow.
It isn’t a mini-National though. It’s shorter, can be run in deeper ground, and winning it doesn’t guarantee success in April. In fact, no horse has completed the Becher/National double in the same season. There's a £500,000 bonus from William Hill if the winner can follow up in the Grand National in April. Still, with £84,195 to the winner it’s a valuable prize and a good race in its own right.
We lost last year’s race to waterlogging, but the 2023 winner Chambard – an 11yo – underlined that older, battle-hardened stayers can thrive, especially those with recent runs and winning form beyond 3m.
The trends (10 winners from 184 runners):
Age: Three of the last 10 winners aged 11+, from 29 bets (+29).
Price: Clear favourites are 3 winners from 9 bets (+7.75).
Seasonal Runs: Nine of the last 10 winners had 1–3 runs that season. Horses returning from a break are 1 from 34 overall.
Course Form: Previous Aintree winners are 2 from 36, both previous Becher winners. Aintree debutants are 2 from 58.
Official Rating: Eight of the last 10 winners had an OR between 136–142 (8 from 71 +27).
Last Time Out Placing: Five of the last 10 had finished second or third last time out (5 from 40, +19.75).
Best in Three Runs: Seven of the last 10 had placed 2nd or 3rd in one of their last three starts (7 from 61 +16.75 A/E 1.57. (Those who hadn’t finished in the first three on their last three starts are 1 from 54 -41 A/E 0.30.). That won winner was Vieux Lion Rouge (2020).
Distance: Nine of the last 10 had won between 3m and (Those that haven’t won at 3m or have won beyond 3m2½f are 1 from 64 -51 A/E+0.24)
Becher Chase Trends Verdict
The Becher is a good race for trends analysis even if nothing is decisive. To cut the field down you could do worse than focus on horses who met the following criteria.
Eight of the last 10 winners met those trends. The exceptions were Vieux Lion Rouge (2020), who had won over 3m4f, and Blaklion (2017), who won off an official rating of 153, as 7/4 favourite.
Only 19 remain after Monday’s final confirmations, so we might not get 16 runners at declarations. The forecast doesn’t look great and with Aintree good to soft earlier in the week, we could be looking at soft – maybe heavy – come Saturday. Several I liked were scratched on Monday, so the picture has shifted.
Contenders:
Mr Vango
Heads the ante-post market. Last season’s Midlands Grand National winner (4m2f) thrives in testing ground and returns 9lb higher than at Uttoxeter. The National fences shouldn’t faze him. He won first time out last year, so fitness won’t be an issue. Strong claims if this is the target.
Gaboriot
Runner-up in the Grand Sefton here last month (2m5f). He loves this place and the step up to 3m2f looks ideal. Yard form is the worry. The same applies to stablemate White Rhino, who finished ninth in the Grand Sefton after being hampered at The Chair. He wasn’t knocked about. Yet to win beyond 2m5f over fences but has scored over three miles over hurdles. One to consider.
Tanganyika
Finished a length behind Mr Vango in the Midlands National and is 3lb better off. Shaped well for a long way at Cheltenham on return and should improve for the run. Trainer won this in 2023. Also entered in Saturday’s London National. Better expected.
King Turgeon
Last year’s Grand Sefton winner travelled well for a long way this year before finishing sixth. Jumps these fences well. Back up to 3m2f suits – he won over the trip at Cheltenham last December. This looks the plan for a yard that won twice with Vieux Lion Rouge. Hasn’t hit the places in his last three starts, but nor had Vieux Lion Rouge before his win. Might wait for the Cheltenham race he won last year if the ground becomes to testing. Dangerous to dismiss.
Excello
Ran better than the result in the Topham (14th of 30), still in contention before a bad mistake two out. Showed his liking for the National fences again when third in the Grand Sefton last time. Stays 3m, but the extra two furlongs will stretch stamina. Also holds a London National entry. Player if he stays.
Monbeg Genius
Jumped well from the front when sixth in the bet365 Gold Cup. First run since, but he wasn’t disgraced on seasonal debut last year. Never travelled in the Grand National, and the yard’s horses are just returning after a bug which is a concern. Fitness unknown, but his mark looks workable. Not ruled out.
Wednesday Racing
Some good racing for a Wednesday.
With £41,232 on offer to the winner, Kempton’s Unibet London Stayers Series (Final) Handicap (7:10) is the day’s most valuable race. At Lingfield, the feature is the BetMGM Winter Oaks Trial Fillies’ Handicap (2:00). Haydock also hosts Leg 10 of the Stayers' Veterans’ Handicap Chase Series (2:08).
Kempton
7:10 – Unibet London Stayers' Series (Final) – 2m
Duke Of Oxford chases a hat-trick and runs off the same mark as when winning this race 12 months ago. He’s the one to beat.
Enemy ran to form when a ½-length runner-up over C&D last time. He has a useful turn of foot for a stayer, but in a likely steadily run race he can’t afford to be dropped out too far.
Poncho returned from a short break in good nick, winning on the Flat at Goodwood and over hurdles at Plumpton last month. He’s an all-weather winner and only 2lb above his last winning mark. Each-way claims.
Caprelo ran better than the bare result in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket. He’s a three-time Kempton winner with C&D figures of 511. Back here, he’s a player with Oisin Murphy booked. Wide in stall 11 but solid otherwise.
Haydock
2:08 – Dunboyne has really revived since joining his current yard earlier this year. He stays well and ran a big race when 4½-lengths third of 19 in the Troytown at Navan. That’s strong form and this is a drop-in class. A repeat effort here makes him the one to beat.
3:12 – Fat Harry bids for a hat-trick after wins at Sedgefield and Newcastle. He’s up 7lb but has only had two chase starts and looks open to improvement.
Jaipaletemps also goes for a hat-trick after a pair of Ffos Las wins. Softer ground would suit him better, so of the pair I prefer Fat Harry.
Carrigmoorna Rowan shaped well for his new trainer when 2¾-lengths second at Huntingdon 11 days ago. He’s up 3lb, but if he builds on that effort, he’s on a competitive mark. I'll be disappointed if he can't finish in the first three.
Thursday Selection
Haydock
3:12 – Carrigmoorna Rowan – 17/2 (William Hill)
In Thursday’s column I’ll be looking at Tingle Creek Day at Sandown.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John