Hi all,
It’s a pre-Christmas treat for racing fans this Saturday with good action at Sandown and Aintree. Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to the weekend’s big race action by previewing Saturday’s Boylesports Becher Chase.
Jonbon is the headline act in the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek (3.00), as he bids to become the first horse to successfully defend his crown since Kauto Star in 2006. The Tingle Creek is one of two Grade 1 contests at Sandown, with the other being the Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1.50).
Over at Aintree, attention shifts to the Grand National fences in the Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (2.07). King Turgeon, who impressed when winning the Grand Sefton over the same obstacles last time, is the sponsors ante post favourite at 4/1.
ITV Racing will broadcast five races from Sandown and three from Aintree on Saturday. There’s more to look forward to on Sunday, with live coverage from Huntingdon and Kelso.
The highlight at Huntingdon is the Grade 2 TrustATrader Peterborough Chase (1.50), while Kelso’s feature is the Bruce Farms Scottish Borders National (2.05).
It’s a weekend packed with high-class racing to enjoy!
Aintree: BoyleSports Becher Chase Handicap Chase
The Becher Chase is a prominent handicap chase run annually at Aintree Racecourse in December. Given it’s run over the National fences its often seen as a key trial for the Grand National in April. However, you have to go back 20 years to find the last Becher Chase winner to triumph in the Grand National.
Run over 3m 2f it was inaugurated in 1992 and is named Captain Martin Becher, who famously fell into the brook in the inaugural Grand National of 1839.
Amberleigh House won the Becher Chase in 2001 before landing the Grand National in 2004.
Earth Summit achieved victory in both races back in the 1990s.
Becher Chase Trends:
I’m not going to go into detail into the race trends on this occasion. However, looking at the trends which contain – 16 winners from 274 runners, 58 places.
Here are some of the key angles.
Days Since Last Run: 21 to 35 days – 8 winners from 53 runners +50.5, 13 places (A/E=1.92)
Age: 9-year-old’s – 7 winners from 71 runners +6.5, 15 places (A/E=1.38)
Clear Favourites – 4 winners from 15 runners +10.25, 5 places (A/E=1.53)
Best In Three Runs: 2nd or 3rd – 9 winners from 91 runners +10.25, 24 places (A/E= 1.20).
Mind you two of those three qualifiers won last time out.
Runs at the Track: 2 – 6 winners from 50 runners +13, 13 places (A/E=1.49).
Becher Chase Trends Verdict:
Without straying into the backfitting realms the strongest looking angle seems to be to be the one the days since last run trend.
Trends Races:
Three winners ran in the Grand National on their last start.
Three winners ran in the Cheltenham, 3m1f Handicap Chase at the November meeting on their latest start.
Two winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on their last start.
Becher Chase 2024 Contenders:
Seventeen chasers were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage, and they include last year’s winner Chambard trained by Venetia Williams. Mind you last year’s race was run on bottomless ground.
The going at Aintree on Monday evening was being described as good to soft. However, there could be between 35 & 40 mm of rain before race day. If that precipitation forecast comes to pass it will be much softer.
If you’re considering, the days since last run trend just 4 of the 17 entries qualify – Celebre d'Allen, Monte Igueldo, Regal Blue and Major Dundee.
Looking at the front five in the ante post betting.
King Turgeon is 8lb higher than when winning the Grand Sefton but he remains the right favourite.
Gaboriot was a 4 ¼ length4th to King Turgeon in the Grand Sefton. He was conceding race fitness to the winner that day and gets a 7lb pull in the weights. Saturday’s longer trip is a plus and he should be bang there.
I’m not sure if he comes here but recent Ascot winner Chianti Classico would need respecting going back left handed.
Cruz Control won the 3m 1f handicap chase here on Grand National Day. He had spin over hurdles here in October and should be spot on fitness wise. Stamina to prove on testing ground.
Iron Bridge stays 3m 4f so no issues with stamina. Plenty of encouragement to be taken form his seasonal return at Carlisle but he’ll probably need further than 3m 2f.
Of the rest.
Arizona Cardinal jumped well when winning the Topham over the National fences in April. He stays 3m and if his stamina for 3m 2f holds he should be in the mix.
Major Dundee needed his Bangor seasonal return over an inadequate three miles 24 days ago. He’s dropped down to a good mark, being just 1lb higher than when winning the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March 2023.
Percussion can never be totally discounted around here given his top three RPR’s have come over the National fences and he’s finished third in this race for the last two seasons.
Wednesday Racing
There's some decent action on Wednesday to keep an eye on.
At Haydock, the Veterans' Series Handicap Chase (2:45) sees a compelling clash between Cloudy Glen and Good Boy Bobby. Earlier on the card, the 1m 7½f Introductory Hurdle (2:15) offers plenty of intrigue with some promising young hurdles stepping up.
Over at Kempton, a lengthy nine-race card is headlined by the Listed Hyde Stakes (7:10), which promises to deliver some quality all-weather action.
Meanwhile, at Lingfield, Charlotte’s Web, bidding for a hat-trick, carries top weight in the Winter Oaks Trial (1:20).
It's a day of variety and opportunity across different codes of the sport
Haydock
Whilst Cloudy Glen is handicapped to win the Veterans' Chase (2:50), heavy ground may not play to his strengths. The Two Amigos, a proven heavy-ground performer, returns from a lengthy 627-day layoff. The 2022 Welsh Grand National winner runs over a trip short of his best but is well-treated and ready to make a bold bid if fit enough
Kempton – Hyde Stakes (7:10)
Roi De France showed tenacity to overcome traffic issues and secure a C&D handicap victory 14 days ago. He appears capable of stepping up to Listed level and has strong claims here. Popmaster, narrowly beaten by Roi De France last time, proved his stamina for a mile and should once again be in the mix.
Roi De France may have more improvement in him but Popmaster has solid each way claims once more.
Lingfield – Winter Oaks Trial (1:20)
Charlotte’s Web has obvious claims after her back-to-back handicap wins on tapeta. For those seeking value, the Nicky Henderson trained Therapist is intriguing. Dropping back to 1m 2f, she’s fairly treated on her best turf form and ran well here on her sole weather start for her previous yard.
Ludlow Pointers
2:03 – Ip Up returns to hurdles for the in-form Jedd O’Keeffe yard and looks well-treated based on last season’s best efforts over timber.
2:35 – Frenchy Du Large is a course winner looks well-handicapped if fit after a 572-day absence. Venetia Williams has a good record in this race, having won it in 2020 and 2022.
In Thursday’s column I’ll be looking at some more of the weekend’s big races.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John