Betfair Exchange Trophy Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I preview Saturday’s Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Ascot.  Plus, you’ll find a review of what was informative card at Newbury on Wednesday.

Newbury Review:

I thought yesterday’s Newbury card would be informative and so it proved. I was impressed with Gidleigh Park who won the 2m 4f novice hurdle. He was sent off even money favourite and was backed if defeat was out of the question. That was as good a performance by a novice hurdler as we have seen this season. The further he went the better the 6-year-old looked. Built like an old-fashioned chaser, anything he does over hurdles will be a bonus.

Gidleigh Park is a best priced 20/1 with bet365 & Sky Bet for the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. I think he should be favourite and half those odds. His hurdling was fast and accurate and although the Irish may have one or two who are better, at 20/1 it’s worth finding out if they have.

The maiden hurdle (2m ½ f) went the way of another nice prospect in the Jonjo O’Neill trained Fortunate Man. The 4-year-old won an Irish point in the spring but had unseated his rider at third on his hurdle debut at Ffos Las last week. Another who was strong at the finish and can only improve for the step up to 2m 4f.

Park Princess was a well backed and decisive winner of the concluding bumper. The filly has a nice pedigree and there should be plenty more come from the 3-year-old.

Finally, the importance of jockeyship was underlined in the Novices' Limited Handicap Chase. Harry Cobden gave Model Kingdom a peach of a ride to win. Although Theatre Man lost second close home. If Cobden and not Harry Bannister was on the third, I think he would have won. That’s not taking anything away from Bannister, but Cobden makes more difference than any jockey when it comes to riding chasers.

Ascot – Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle Preview

Saturday’s big betting race is Ascot’s Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (3:35). Seventeen were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage.

First run in 2001, given the competitiveness of the race the odd ‘surprise’ winner can be expected. Not So Sleepy was 20/1 when making all to win in 2020 and Cause of Causes was 25/1 when landing the 2012 renewal. However, the last five renewals have seen 12 of the 18 placed horses starting 9/1 or less.

Trends:

Delving into the race trends which contain 13 winners from 216 runners, 46 placed.  

Age: Twelve of the last 13 winners were aged between 4 and 7.

Last Run: Five of the last 13 winners won on their last run before the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle, 11 of the last 13 winners ran within the last 49 days.

Previous Winning Course Form: Five of the last 13 winners had at least 1 previous win at Ascot – 5 winners from 29 runners +35, 11 placed had 1 or 2 previous wins at Ascot.

Previous Hurdle Runs: Eleven of the last 13 winners had 2 to 7 previous runs at around 2m.

Last Race Course: Eight of the last 13 winners ran at Ascot, Cheltenham or Newbury. Three of the last 13 winners ran in the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run although the best position they obtained in that race was third (Cause Of Causes).

Looking at winning most trainers:

Just eight trainers have been responsible for the last 13 winners. Will a new trainer get their name on that list this year?

Contenders:

Iberico Lord who won the Greatwood Hurdle last time, is the 7/2 favourite with the sponsers. The 5-year-old is going the right way but on good to soft ground might not confirm form with runner-up Lookaway who gets a 4lb pull for 2 ½ length defeat.

Besides Iberico Lord Nicky Henderson could saddle Luccia who was a 7-length 3^rd in the Greatwood Hurdle and gets an 8lb pull with her stablemate. She’s become a bit of a weak finisher, but better ground will suit the mare. Impose Toi is another Henderson entry and like favourite is owned by J P McManus. The 5-year-old made it 3-5 over hurdles when winning a Class 3 handicap at Cheltenham last month. He’s now 10lb higher but would be in the mix if he did run.

Harry Fry saddles Altobelli who shaped with promise for this race when 2^nd of 12 over C&D on his seasonal return 49 days ago. Lightly raced over hurdles he looks handicapped to go close.

Gary Moore has a couple of lively contenders in Hansard and Spirit D'Aunou. The former won at Newbury last time and the latter improved to win at Sandown 14 days ago. Spirit D'Aunou has just a 4lb penalty to carry for his latest win and if a hard race hasn’t taken its toll should go well.

Nemean Lion finished 5^th in the Greatwood and if he had jumped better would have finished closer to the first two.

Of those at bigger odds you can’t dismiss Falvoir. Like Dan Skelton’s last winner of the race Mohaayed he won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and he’s just 3lb higher.

Thursday Preview

We’ve lost Ffos Las due to waterlogging which leaves just one jumps meeting at Exeter and two all-weather cards at Southwell and Chelmsford.

Exeter

The most interesting race of the day is the Join Us On New Year's Day At Exeter Handicap Chase (2:55).

Enjoy Your Life is a worthy favourite to give Venetia William another chase success. The 6-year-old was a comfortable winner over C&D 25 days ago and a 7lb rise isn’t excessive. The ground might be a shade softer than last time, but he’s got a solid chance of following up. The one to beat.

Arizona Cardinal was pulled up on his return from a 6 month absence at Warwick last month. That run can be partially explained as he’s had wind surgery since. He’s only had six starts over fences and could be capable of better.

Run To Milan is a three time course winner including two over C&D.  The 11-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 5 ¾ length 4^th behind Enjoy Your Life here last time. He’s been dropped 2lb since and gets a 9lb pull from the winner.

Jubilee Express should be better for his chase debut 4^th of 7 at Ludlow (2m 4f) 42 days ago. Hopes are pinned on the application of the first time cheekpieces and the step up to 3m seeing him produce a better performance.

In Rem wins his fair share of races – 6 wins from 17 starts and is 1-1 over C&D. He was a well beaten 2^nd of 11 at Chepstow on his seasonal return. Not on a bad mark, just 1lb higher than for his last win, but probably needs further than 3m.

Thursday Selection:

I'm heading to Southwell for today's selection in the Build Your Acca With BetUK Handicap at 4:10. My pick for the race is Fine Wine, a four-time course and distance winner who is currently 4lb below his last winning mark. Although he wasn’t in form on his recent three outings, a performance akin to his 1 ½ length 3rd of 14 to Vintage Clarets in the Gosforth Park Sprint Cup in June would give him an excellent chance. A speedy sort, he returns from an 89-day break, and if he's in prime condition, I believe he has the potential to surprise some more fancied rivals.

Southwell

4:10 – Fine Wine – 8/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John