Good morning all,
Little for punters to get stuck into racing wise. Ffos Las's Thursday card was cancelled on Wednesday and we even lost Newcastle’s tapeta fixture to snow yesterday. That means no jumps racing in the UK until Saturday at the earliest. There’s a slight chance that Thurles maybe able to race today but they inspect in the morning due to forecast snow and ice.
Even worse, the signs are not looking good for Newbury’s Saturday Betfair Hurdle meeting. The course will inspect at 8.30am on Friday to see if racing can go ahead. The course is frozen and sub-zero temperatures are expected for the rest of the week. Unless the weather suddenly changes, which seems unlikely, I can’t see it going ahead.
There is some good news though the meeting may not be completely lost. Hopes are high that the meeting will take place either next Friday or Sunday, if ITV's terrestrial coverage can be obtained. If not, it could be held midweek.
If we do see any jumps action in Britain this weekend it’s likely to be at Warwick but even there freezing temperatures are expected.
Inside today’s main piece I have had a look at Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle. Just in case a miracle happens and anyway it may be useful for when the race does eventually take place. Plus, I have a couple of fancies from Newcastle and Meydan.
Newbury – Saturday
3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
All the last 11 winners of this race were aged five or six. Those aged seven plus are 0 winners from 84 runners 12 placed in that time. Trends are there to be broken but personally I will be focus on the younger horses.
Metier’s a strong favourite
Metier has looked good so far over hurdles winning all three starts, including the Grade 1 Tolworth Novice Hurdle last time. He’s just 7/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and the shortest of the home team. The 5-year-old has a chance at the weights here but he may not run and trainer Harry Fry is woeful form 0 winners from 24 runners 5 placed in the past 30-days.
Leading contenders
Nicky Henderson won this in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours and he’s got a couple of contenders in Mister Coffey and Buzz.
Mister Coffey impressed when winning a handicap at Sandown on his seasonal return. He probably found the ground too heavy back at the same venue a month later when 3rd of 10 behind Benson. The 6-year-old won on his hurdle debut over C&D last season. He’s only had four starts over hurdles and remains in the could be anything category.
Stablemate Buzz is more experienced, he’s had six starts over hurdles, winning three of them. A winner at Ascot in November. He put in a career best on RPR’s when runner-up to Not So Sleepy in a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot before Christmas. Henderson has booked Kevin Brogan to take a handy 5lb off the top-weights back.
Soaring Glory beat leading Ballymore hope Bravemansgame on his seasonal return at Chepstow, before finishing runner-up, trying to give 6lb, to a useful Henderson novice Dusart over C&D. Fell when the most likely winner at Wetherby two starts back and last time out was a good third in a Grade 2 at Ascot in December. The 6-year-old has to be considered a big player here.
Alan King saddles a couple of last time out winners in Edwardstone who looks an ideal type for the race but is a 7-year-old. As is stablemate On To Victory who won a Wincanton maiden hurdle last month and also won the November handicap on the level.
Annual Invictus bids for the four timer and the 6-year-old makes his handicap hurdle debut off a workable mark of 135.
Dan’s The Man
Dan Skelton has laid Cadzand out for the race. Like the favourite, Cadzand is a novice and has been steadily progressive since going hurdling. Winning his last two starts at Warwick and a handicap at Kempton over Christmas. On the latter occasion he beat recent Musselburgh scorer Christopher Wood by 3 ¼ lengths. Now 9lb higher but an improver and my idea of the winner.
Dan Skelton has been a trainer to have onside in handicap hurdles in the last 90-days. Those runners going off 12/1 & under have produced 10 winners from 33 runners 30% +26.20 17 placed 52%. He’s 0 -15 1 place with those returned 14/1 or bigger.
Thursday racing
Thurles must survive a morning inspection and the card looks tricky. Forgetting the “jumpers' bumper” card at Kempton, that leaves just Newcastle and Meydan.
Newcastle
6:30 – You must go back to January 2019 for Fendale’s last win but he’s dropped down to a good mark. He was going well when hampered two out when finishing 4th of 13 over C&D 45-days ago. Can go close for yard 2-5 in the past 14-days.
Meydan
3:05 – Away He Goes returned from 89-day break to finish a promising 3rd of 14 to Walton Street in a better race, over C&D three weeks ago. Stall 10 could be better but the 5-year-old looks capable of going close provided they go a good gallop.
Thursday Selection:
Newcastle
6:30 – Fendale – 9/2 @Bet365
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk