Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Haydock’s Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2:25).
Haydock: Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle
Looking at the trends: 13 of the last 17 winners of the race — including eight of the last ten — finished in the first three on their latest start. Of the two exceptions in the last decade, last year’s winner Shoot First had finished fifth at Galway, while Baradari (2015) was making his seasonal return.
Shoot First was also sent off an unfancied 33/1 for last year’s race, but runners at 18/1 and bigger have a poor record: just 1 winner from 109 runners since 2008.
I’ll be using part of my handicap hurdle method to shortlist possible contenders, focusing on the three best placings last time out among horses that have run within the last 28 days.
I won’t be concerning myself too much with the course or distance element. Few will have won over the trip (3m½f), and previous distance winners are 0 from 56 runners (A/E 3.95).
As for previous course winners, they are 1 winner from 36 runners, with the last Haydock scorer being Gevrey Chambertin (2013), who had won a novice hurdle at the meeting 12 months earlier.
Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle Contenders:
At Monday’s final confirmation stage, 23 were left in the race. The final declarations are out this morning but here’s some of the leading contenders.
Ma Shantou
Looked an ideal type for the race when winning on his seasonal return at Cheltenham last month, is the ante-post favourite. Trainer Emma Lavelle won this race with Paisley Park in 2018.
Electric Mason
Was 2¾ lengths runner-up to Ma Shantou in that Cheltenham contest and gets a 5lb pull with the winner, which brings him very much into the mix.
Shoot First
Is 6lb higher than when wining this race 12 months ago. He had a pipe-opener over an inadequate 2m in a Grade 3 at Tipperary last month and Charles Byrnes has likely aimed him at this race again.
Navajo Indy
Made a good return to action when finishing 3¾ lengths second of 20 at Cheltenham (2m4f) last month. He’s a consistent performer who proved his stamina for 2m4f and could stay three miles. The yard has its runners in winning form.
Ace Of Spades
Made it 3 wins from 7 over hurdles when scoring at Aintree (2m4f) on his seasonal return. He’s up 3lb but remains progressive. He was a close-up second on his only start at 3m at Ayr in April, so he’s unexposed as a stayer, and on a sound surface he’s got a big chance. Stablemate Joyeux Machin stays the trip and is likely on a winning mark but doesn’t find winning easy. He’s shorter in the betting than Ace Of Spades but I prefer the latter.
Hartington
Improved for getting soft ground when winning a Carlisle handicap (2m4f) 20 days ago. He’s open to further progress for the step up to three miles and is just 3lb higher than last time. If he proves as effective on better ground, he must be considered.
Nab Wood
Made a winning return to action over this trip at Ayr 21 days ago. He’s up 5lb but softer ground would probably suit him better.
Doctor Kildare
Has thrived for the switch to Sam Thomas, winning both this season’s starts at Bangor and Hereford. He proved his stamina for the distance at Hereford 19 days ago. He’s 6lb higher in a much better race but the 5yo may not yet have reached his ceiling.
Verdict:
My final selection(s) will come from the horses listed above. Eight of the nine arrive in good form and all are race fit. That’s the easy bit done. The challenge now is working out whether their overall form is strong enough to win, who will get the trip and of course cope with underfoot conditions.
Called It: Southwell Form Pays Off at Kempton
As I mentioned in yesterday’s column, a Southwell mile handicap held the key for Kempton’s London Mile Series Qualifier, with First Principle, Two Tempting, and Dividend all in action.
Not to blow my own trumpet, but I correctly predicted how the race would unfold and highlighted the first two home. Two Tempting reversed the placings with First Principle, while Dividend, held up in the steadily run race, couldn’t get involved. He remains one to watch when getting a race run at a stronger pace.
Thursday Racing
Onto Thursday’s action. It’s soft ground at Warwick, yet we have just five for Leg 9 of the Stayers' Veterans' Chase Series (1:45). It’s a gentle reminder there’s simply too much racing. Fields are good for Class 5 handicap hurdles, but not for midweek Class 2 contests like this.
The strongest action on Thursday is at Lingfield, with two Listed fillies’ races on tap. No shortage of runners here chasing black type.
River Eden Fillies’ Stakes (1:55)
Understudy could bounce back returned to the synthetics.
Fairy Glen was a close second in a Listed race at Bath last time and has returned from her break in good form. She stays 1m5f and is 2 from 3 on the all-weather. My idea of the most likely winner despite being drawn out wide in stall 11.
Jessica Harrington sends Bellewstown maiden winner Lifting Sails. The 3yo needs a big step forward but should have more to come. Looks the each-way play in the race especially if you can get double figures odds.
Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Stakes (2:30)
Sky Safari, unbeaten in four runs on the all-weather, steps out of handicaps. This looks a winnable Listed race and she’s capable of landing it.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John