Hi all,
Apologies for the late posting of yesterday’s column. I was so caught up preparing my Day 2 preview for subscribers that I only realised it was still waiting to be published as they went into the stalls for the first race.
Day 2 of Doncaster’s St Leger Festival brings the Group 2 Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup (3.00). Last year’s winner Sweet William heads the market to follow up. The speedy two-year-olds take centre stage in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes (2.25). ITV Racing has five live races from Town Moor and also shows the rescheduled Group 3 Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes from Salisbury, lost to waterlogging last week.
Inside today’s main piece you can read my quick thoughts on the seven ITV races.
First though something you might find interesting regarding handicap favourites.
Handicap Favourites Outperforming Group 1s
Between 2019 and 2024, favourites in Class 2 handicaps had a 26% strike-rate. Backing them blind would have lost £118 to a £1 level stake.
This year tells a different story.
Clear favourites in Class 2 handicaps are striking at nearly 34%. A £1 level-stake profit of £31.55 says punters are reading these big-field handicaps better than usual.
Half Sovereign added to the winners when taking the opening Class 2 nursery handicap at Doncaster yesterday
Now compare those results to Group 1 races run in the UK this season.
Favourites have won just 27% of Group 1's, with a poor A/E figure of 0.64. Small sample or not, it underlines an unusual season where handicaps have been more predictable than Group 1 contests.
Now it may well probably turn out be an outlier season but maybe the better class handicaps are becoming more data-driven and “solvable,” so favourites are stronger. Just a thought.
Doncaster St Leger Festival Day 2
It was hard work at Doncaster yesterday, the slow-motion finish to the May Hill Stakes told its own story. The sticky ground played a part, but I suspect the strong headwind was the real culprit.
Even so, there were two excellent front-running rides to admire. Tom Marquand (Santorini Star) and William Buick (Devil’s Advocate) judged things perfectly, while their rivals were caught napping. It wasn’t the day to be coming from too far back – take note Rab Havlin, who left Crepe Suzette with too much to do behind Santorini Star.
Doncaster missed yesterday’s showers but will it be so lucky this afternoon. Looking at the morning going stick report on the BHA website the ground has tightened up a bit
1:15 – Betfred Mallard Handicap (1m6½f)
Shadow Dance was a close third in this last year and shaped well in the Ebor. Softer ground is a plus and he’s well treated. Synergism, progressive on the all-weather, ran a big race over two miles at Newcastle last time. He still looks on the upgrade. Promethean gained a maiden win in France last time. He stays 1m4f well and could improve again at this longer trip. He’s nicely treated on the best of last year’s handicap form.
1:50 – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) – 7f
Do Or Do Not has solid Group 2 form but remains winless after six starts. On form he’s the one, but remains vulnerable. Catullus impressed at Yarmouth last time and is improving. Hankelow, a 750,000gns colt, looked a Group horse when winning on debut at York. He skipped quick summer ground and is expected to progress on easier ground this autumn.
2:25 – Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Mission Central bids for a hat-trick after back-to-back 6f wins, including a Curragh Group 3. He has the pace for 5f and sets a good standard. Lady Iman flopped in the Nunthorpe against the older horses and that may have left its mark. I suspect she could be done for the season Revival Power impressed when winning the Listed Roses Stakes at York and the speedy filly looks to have more to offer. Havana Hurricane drops back to 5f, and a strongly run race over the minimum trip should suit his strong finish.
3:00 – Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup (2m2f, Group 2)
Sweet William doesn’t win often but he took this last year and looks solid again. At odds-against he’s fair value, though he’ll test his backer’s nerves. Sunway was close behind him in the Goodwood Cup last time but his stamina over 2m2f is a doubt. Hipop De Loire ran well in the Ebor and steps up in trip, which could unlock more improvement. Kyle Of Lochalsh stays further won a Goodwood handicap (2m4f) last time and enjoys soft ground. He has a bit to find on official ratings but looks worth his place in the line-up. Pendragon, a 3yo improving handicapper who should be suited by a marathon trip but might be more of a Cesarewitch type. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott did win this in 2001 with a 3yo.
3:40 – British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap (1m4f)
Cape Flora is thriving with front-running tactics in winning her last two starts. She looked classy when winning at York (1m2f) and should stay 1m4f. Perfect Your Craft won here over 1m2f last time and remains well handicapped for Ralph Beckett, who has won this race for the last two years. Has the scope to improve further for a step up in trip. Little Dorrit ran better than the bare result in the when fifth in the Listed Galtres Stakes at York last time. Looks nicely weighted on handicap debut. Jujubella was fifth to Cape Flora at York and meets the winner on 10lb better terms here. Entitled to get closer back over further. If you like Cape Flora, you must consider her a live each way play.
Salisbury
3:25 Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Awaken chased home Venetian Sun at Royal Ascot and that’s top form. She’s the one to beat if handling soft ground. Planet Seeker scored on debut at Goodwood and her yard has win this twice since 2022. Flowerhead hasn’t built on her Queen Mary second but steps back to 6f, which may help. Bella Lyra has ability, but her yard is quiet, and soft ground is an unknown. Reimagined is unexposed and still looked green when winning at Windsor last time. Her yard won this in 2023, and she has each way claims. Golden Palace is unbeaten on two starts and promises more if coping with conditions.
Staking Challenge Selection
Doncaster
2:25 – Havana Hurricane: £1.60 win – 5/1
Running Total: £72
I’m at a wine tasting this evening so there might not be Saturday column this week.
If you want my weekend picks from Doncaster and Irish Champions Weekend you can get them for just a fiver – Click Here
If there’s no Saturday column, I’ll be here on Sunday with a look at the best of the action at the Curragh,
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John