Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I am looking at Saturday’s Temple Stakes Day at Haydock.
Saturday’s big handicap is the Betfred Silver Bowl at Haydock. This Heritage Handicap is for three-year-olds over a mile and comes with a £100,000 guaranteed purse. It’s one of the feature races on Betfred Temple Stakes Day.
Haydock: Betfred Silver Bowl Trends:
Looking at the 10-year trends (from 121 runners), the profile of recent winners is revealing. The last nine all met these three criteria:
- Starting price of 7/1 or shorter
- Zero or one previous win over a mile
- Finished first or second on their most recent start.
Just Beatboxer, the 2019 winner, failed to meet the key race trends. He went off at 20/1 and hadn't finished in the first two on his previous start — the outlier.
Contenders:
At Monday’s final forfeit stage, 23 runners remained in the mix. Of those, six caught my eye ahead of final declarations: Fort George, King Casper, Transparent, Teroomm, Cavolo Nero, and Dixieland Blues.
Fort George looks to be an improving handicapper. He won nicely at Newmarket 22 days ago and, although up 5lb, still looks on the up.
King Casper returned to form with a sharp seasonal debut win at Newmarket in a good time. He’s lightly raced and should come on again.
Runner-up that day, Transparent, was beaten three lengths but now enjoys a 7lb swing at the weights. That should bring the pair much closer.
Teroomm doesn’t tick the trend box on distance wins, with both his recent victories coming over a mile. Still, he’s unexposed and open to progress. Roger Varian trained the winner of this race in 2021 and knows the type required.
Cavolo Nero is steadily climbing the ratings. He’s improved on Racing Post Ratings with each of his four starts and got the job done in a Goodwood handicap three weeks ago. He may not have reached his ceiling yet.
Dixieland Blues won at Southwell last time out and steps into handicaps for the first time. This will also be his turf debut, but both his half-siblings were grass winners, so there’s every reason to think he’ll handle it. The stable also has Jolly Roger, who is shorter in the ante post betting. He was badly hampered at York on handicap debut and is worth another chance.
Other Haydock Highlights
It’s unclear whether Running Lion will take up her entry in the Listed Betfred Hedge Of Oak Stakes (2:25). She was last of five in a Group 2 on seasonal return, but don’t forget—she won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot last year and finished a close second in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera. She’s not the most reliable, but if she brings her A-game, she could outclass this field.
If the ground eases, the improving Estrange commands respect. Lightly raced and unbeaten on two of her three starts, she’s open to progress as a four-year-old.
Powerful Glory ended his juvenile campaign with an authoritative win in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. He remains a colt of huge potential. If he lands Saturday’s Betfred Sandy Lane Stakes (3:00), he’ll go straight into the reckoning for next month’s Commonwealth Cup. Richard Fahey won this race in 2018.
The Betfred Temple Stakes (3:30) rounds off ITV’s Haydock coverage. Starlust—a length third in the Nunthorpe—showed he can mix it at the top level and underlined that with a Turf Sprint win at the Breeders’ Cup. If fit, he’s a leading player.
Irish challenger She’s Quality ran a blinder when second to Rumstar in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes. That effort puts her right in the mix here. Rumstar could also run and is an improving sprinter even as a 5-year-old on good or quicker ground.
Keep an eye on another Irish trained filly Grande Marques too. She shaped well when fifth in a Listed race at Cork last month. That was a nice prep, and she can take another step forward.
If you want my final weekend selections and for the next month, you can get them here.
I am off to the Skipton Beer Festival today so there won't be a Friday column.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John