Hi all,
Inside today main piece you find my preview of Saturday's Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup and a free tip from Hamilton.
A much better weekend of racing ahead.
The Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock is the weekend highlight. Other highlights on the Haydock card are the Group 3 Superior Mile (1.15) and the Old Borough Cup (3.00).
There are two Group 3 contests on the all-weather at Kempton. TheUnibet September Stakes (1.35) and Unibet Sirenia Stakes (3.10). The Kempton undercard also includes the Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap (2:05).
ITV Racing are covering five races live from Haydock, two from Kempton and two from Ascot on a nine-race programme.
There’s also more racing on ITV on Sunday when York hosts the final meeting of this year’s Sky Bet Sunday Series with the Listed Garrowby Stakes one of seven lives races from the Knavesmire.
There’s big race action at Longchamp on Sunday where it’s Arc Trials Day. In addition to the Group 1 Prix Vermeille, the Group 1 Prix du Moulin has been added to a card which includes the Group 2 Prix Niel and Prix Foy both races, like the Prix Vermeille, are run over the Arc C&D.
Haydock – Betfair Sprint Cup
Twenty-two remain after Monday’s confirmations for the Betfair Sprint Cup, with Royal Ascot winner Lazzat at the head of the market.
Last year’s shock winner Montassib went off at 25/1 and broke one of the big trends. The previous ten winners had all been priced 11/1 or shorter. A dip into Horseracebase shows all ten of those winners ticked the same trend boxes.
The draw is always a talking point. I’ve never liked being marooned in stall 1 at Haydock, yet Montassib came from stall 2 last year. In fact, seven of the last ten winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower.
Contenders:
Lazzat looked the real deal at Royal Ascot, the star sprinter the division needed. But he should have won the Maurice de Gheest at Deauville last time. Softer ground won’t faze him. At 9/4 he feels short, but if he drifted towards 4/1, he’d be tempting.
Kind Of Blue was runner-up in this last year before winning the Champions Sprint at Ascot. Two poor runs opened his season, but he took a step back in the right direction when third at the Curragh last time.
Flora Of Bermuda didn’t get a clear run when fifth in last year’s renewal. She’s held by Lazzat on their Royal Ascot form, but easier ground puts her right in the mix.
Last year’s winning trainer William Haggas could run both Sky Majesty and Almeraq, two improvers who enjoy some cut. Almeraq only landed a handicap last time, but he’s firmly on the upgrade.
Sayidah Dariyan found 5f too sharp when fourth in the Nunthorpe last time. The return to 6f will help, and she’s capable of sneaking into the places if she handles easier ground.
Finally, Time For Sandals improved to win the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. She wasn’t disgraced under a penalty, when third in a Goodwood Group 2 over 5f last month. The step back up to 6f is a plus, and she’s a big player.
Wednesday Racing
Another quick update on my 30-day betting bank challenge. Yesterday I looked at losing runs when backing horses around 5/1. Today the focus shifts to runners priced between 1.76 and 2.0 on Betfair SP over the last five years. These types return a healthy 52% strike-rate, yet even here the data shows two losing runs of nine.
Proof, if it were needed, that losing sequences are part and parcel of the game – even with odds-on shots.
Yesterday I went with Sixpack. He was very weak in the betting and ran like he didn’t stay two miles on what turned out to be heavy ground. Novelista my idea of the winner finally got his head in front proving as expected well suited to a stamina test. At 13/8 I was more than happy to let him win though.
Hamilton
Back to today’s action on the track. The day’s most valuable contest is the Hamilton Park 2yo Series Final Nursery Handicap (6:15). Better And Better, a C&D winner in June, improved again to land a Haydock nursery two runs back. He didn’t quite see out 7f in a York nursery 13 days ago, but the return to 6f looks perfect. On his Haydock win, he still appears ahead of the handicapper.
Kempton
The lucky last at Kempton is a competitive 6f handicap (9:00) with ten runners. Powdering ran well here over 7f in the spring from a 4lb higher mark. Stall 8 isn’t ideal, but she’s competitively weighted and can get involved. Court Drive, a C&D winner in January, bounced back to winning form at Pontefract last time. She’s up 4lb for that but Warren Fentiman’s 5lb claim cancels it out. With a low draw, she looks set to go close if repeating that effort. Given her profile backing up last time isn’t certain but I’m hopeful she can go in again.
I can only go for one, so I’ve gone with Better And Better ahead of Court Drive.
Better And Better – £2 win – 4/1
Running Total – £84
In Thursday’s column I’ll continue my look ahead to Saturday’s action.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John