Beverley Bullet Preview and two 25/1 Selections

Evening all,

Inside today’s main piece I begin my look ahead to the weekend. There’s a preview of Saturday’s Beverley Bullet. Plus, there’s a horse that I have had an ante post bet on for the 2023 Derby and a Wednesday selection from Bellewstown.

Looking ahead to the weekend: Not much to celebrate

The Group 2 William Hill Celebration Mile Stakes (3.35) at Goodwood is the feature race of the weekend. The sponsors won’t be happy though as only FIVE runners were left in at Monday’s five-day confirmation stage. Ok we have just had York’s Ebor Festival and the ground is likely to be quick. But still for race with a £125,000 in guaranteed prize money the field size is woeful.

The William Haggas-trained Maljoom isn’t one of the entries and the odds-on ante post favourite Mutasaabeq also as entry in the Group 3 Supreme Stakes (7f) at Goodwood on Sunday. All Mutasaabeq’s four career wins have come over 7f and he’s 0-5 beyond that distance. He’s probably going to be worth taking on in what could be a tactically run race. Not sure who with though.

There’s something wrong with racing planning and the pattern when Goodwood have two Group races over 7f & mile over the same weekend. In a sane world there would be just the one race which might, and I stress MIGHT have led to a reasonably sized and competitive field. Sadly, those who run the sport are living in an alternative universe to the rest of us, so we are left with likely two small field contests.

I’m not sure how our friends at ITV who are going to spin this weekend. It’s a shame as the broadcaster is pushing the boat out this weekend. Covering races from Goodwood, Beverley, and Newmarket on Saturday. And seven races from Goodwood and Beverley on Sunday.

Thankfully the Paddy Power Irish Cambridgeshire (4:15) at the Curragh is also on Saturday. Which means there’s at least one big field handicap on offer over the weekend. Sadly, it won’t be on ITV. More on that race in tomorrow’s column.

Beverley Bullet

It might not be the most valuable race of the weekend, but the Listed Beverley Bullet will be more exciting than Goodwood’s Group 2.  

Here’s a quick dive into the ten-year trends for the race.

Draw

Those drawn in a double figure stall are 0 winners from 23 runners just 2 placed. Compare that with those drawn in stalls 1 & 2 are 4 winners from 19 runners +8 10 placed.

Granted looking at 5f races (non-juvenile) at Beverley this season those drawn in stalls 1 & 2 are just 4 winners from 29 runners 8 placed. Whilst those drawn9+ still aren’t doing well being 1 winner from 34 runners 8 placed.

I will still be avoiding those drawn in double figure draw in this year’s race.

Age:

There’s a pretty good spread of ages winning the race. Although 3-year-olds are 0 winners from 16 runners 4 placed.

Odds SP:

A more interesting trend.  If you’re fishing for a big-priced winner of the race, then you’re fishing in a an empty pool. Those returned 11/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 48 runners 6 placed.

Other trends to note:

Those horses with less than two wins over 5f are 0 winners from 29 runners 7 placed.

Horses who ran at Ascot last time are 3 winners from 12 +6.5 runners 4 placed.

Those who had run at Group 1 level are 8 winners from 47 runners +5.5 16 placed.

Horses with one or two previous starts at Beverley are 6 winners from 38 runners +9 13 placed.

If you’re thinking of using the above trends to shortlist contenders for the race. Then you would do worse than focusing on the following:

Stall: 1 to 9

Odds SP: 11/1 & under

Wins at the distance: 2+

Runners who meet those three trends are 10 winners from 39 runners +27.5 18 placed. That’s all ten winners from just 26% of the total runners.  

Contenders:

I won’t be considering a bet until I know the draw. Looking at entries and ante post betting. Last year’s winner Tiz Marvellous (5/1) has solid claims of back-to-back successes in the race and if he gets a decent draw must be high on the shortlist.

Manaccan (6/1) has solid form claims and looks a progressive sprinter. However, he’s a 3-year-old and has only won once over 5f. Korker (10/1) is another 3-year-old. He’s more than capable of winning a race like this has developed a habit of starting slowly.

The veteran Judicial (17/2) won it in 2019 and was third last year and can’t be ruled out over a C&D where his form figures are 11133.

Clarendon House 12/1) and Tees Spirit (12/1) are both 1-1 over C&D. The former hasn’t progressed since winning here in June, but the latter is improving sprint handicapper, winning the Epsom Dash and posted a career best on RPR’s when winning at Doncaster two weeks ago.

Flying high

I have just had my first ante post bet for next year’s classics. The horse in question is the Charlie Appleby colt Flying Honours. The son of Sea The Stars had built on his Newmarket racecourse debut promise when beating two rivals at Sandown. He improved again when staying on strongly to win last week’s Listed Stonehenge Stakes (1m) at Salisbury. I liked impressive change of gear he showed to win at Salisbury.

You can watch Angus McNee’s assessment of Flying Honours’ Salisbury win on Racing TV’s ‘The Verdict' here.

Like Angus I think the colt is a good prospect. Out of Dubawi mare he’s bred to appreciate middle distances as 3-year-old and it’s a positive that he’s been able to show speed to win as a juvenile. He’s got entry in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket and that race looks ideal for him.

I have had a nibble at 25/1 for next year’s Derby and he can still be backed at those odds with both Paddy Power and Coral.

Ante Post Advice: Epsom Derby 2023

Flying Honours 25/1 @ Paddy Power & Coral

Wednesday Racing

Ok, back to today’s fare. It’s not great but its not to bad either and only one of today’s six meetings is over jumps. This evening’s all-weather card at Kempton looks the most competitive of today’s fixtures. However, the two best races in terms of prize money are to be found at Musselburgh and Bellewstown.  

Bellewstown

7:40 – Useful hurdler Jesse Evans lightly raced on the flat was an improved head 2^nd of 12 on handicap debut at Killarney two starts and has since gone close over hurdles in the Galway Hurdle.  Only 2lb higher than at Killarney and his claims are clear for all to see as evidenced by his price. The one to beat but there are others with claims.

Patrick Mullins is an interesting jockey booking for National Ballet who stayed on well to finish a 9 lengths 5th of 18 in flat handicap at Galway last time. The 4-year-old remains capable of better for the step up 2m but so far, his best form has come on good to soft/ soft ground. Was well behind Jesse Evans at Killarney but that was his first start for 275-days so was entitled to need the run.

Cozone and Monas Melody were just a head and short head behind Jessie Evans in the Killarney race. Both have disappointed since, but the latter ran like something was amiss when pulling up in the valuable amateur rider’s flat handicap at Galway last time.  The booking of Derek O'Connor takes the eye and if the mare bounces back to form, she’s an each-way contender.

Jesse Evans will take the beating but at the 25/1 available I can't resist an each way nibble on Monas Melody.

Wednesday Selection:

Bellewstown

7:40 – Monas Melody – 25/1 @ Bet365 (each way).

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John