Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m focusing on the three Grade 1 races on Kempton’s Boxing Day card.
Boxing Day delivers a feast of racing with 11 meetings across Britain and Ireland. Kempton takes centre stage, headlined by the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (2:30). Supporting it are two other Grade 1 contests: the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (1:55) and the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (1:20).
At Aintree, the Grade 1 William Hill Formby Novices' Hurdle (1:05) tops the card, while Wetherby features the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (1:35). Both are on ITV, alongside Kempton’s first four races. In Ireland, the Grade 1 Racing Post Long Distance Novice Chase (2:20) offers the day’s richest prize.
With so much on offer on Boxing Day, staying on top of it all—let alone tackling the form—can feel overwhelming. Focusing your attention is essential. I’ve concentrated on the six ITV races, two Aintree handicaps, and the Lincolnshire National Handicap Chase (1:47) at Market Rasen—a race that’s been kind to me in the past. Final declarations helped refine the shortlist of races further.
I wrote this on Monday after final declarations so any prices below may well have gone.
King George VI Chase (2:30)
This year’s Ladbrokes King George VI Chase lacks a standout contender. There’s unlikely to be a Pendil, Desert Orchid, Wayward Lad or Kauto Star in the line-up. However, we the race does boast 11 entries, potentially the largest field since 2009. Unfortunately, last year’s winner Hewick won’t defend his title, despite ideal conditions.
The field size may shrink further, as Corbett’s Cross will miss the race if the ground dries out, and ante-post favourite Spillane’s Tower requires some soft going description to take part. The going at the time of writing on Monday was good, good to soft in places, with little rain forecast. I suspect they’ll water to keep that “soft” in the description.
Since 2018, there have been winners priced at 12/1 (twice), 20/1, and 28/1. Those returned 12/1 to 25/1 have a remarkable record of 4 winners from 17 runners, returning +59 points profit to level stakes and 8 places (+78.40).
So, if you fancy one at double-figure odds, don’t be deterred. This race certainly in recent years has rewarded bold choices!
Key Contenders
Spillane’s Tower: Solid claims if conditions suit. He should relish 3 miles going right-handed. An improver who looks the solid option if he runs.
Grey Dawning: The trip and track will suit, but he might have had a hard race at Haydock last time. If he he’d have a big chance. Wouldn’t want the ground to quicken up.
Il Est Francais: Brilliant winner of last year’s Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, but inconsistent recently. Broke a blood vessel last time which is off putting but he can win if at his best.
Banbridge: Classy and will like the drying ground. First try beyond 2m 5f is a question mark. Plenty short enough given stamina doubts but will go close if he stays. I don’t think he will
Bravemansgame: Won in 2022 and runner-up 12 month ago but has looked regressive of late. Still, he’s 112 over C&D and underfoot conditions should be ideal.
Envoi Allen: Back to winning ways in Down Royal’s Grade 1 Champion Chase on return Disappointed here on soft ground in 2022 but track and race should suit. Each way claims
L’Homme Presse: Unseated in this two years ago when looked booked for second. Jumps slightly left and might prefer easier ground, but he’s unbeaten on seasonal reappearance (4-4). At 12/1, he’s another who makes each way appeal.
The Real Whacker: 2023 Brown Advisory winner at the Cheltenham Festival bounced back to from a poor season to win the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. Jumped well last time and the quicker the ground the better.
Verdict:
With just 3lb separating six horses on official ratings, this feels like a competitive handicap rather than a stellar renewal. That said, it promises to be an exciting contest, which is just as important.
Il Est Francais and The Real Whacker are likely to make the pace that could help set up the race for the likes of Spillane’s Tower and Grey Dawning. L’Homme Presse and Envoi Allen offer solid each-way claims. Even 2022 winner Bravemansgame, can’t be completely dismissed.
Christmas Hurdle (1:55)
It’s the clash we’ve been waiting for: Constitution Hill vs. Lossiemouth. The latter, who receives a 7lb mares’ allowance, is talented, but Constitution Hill is a brilliant horse at his best. Even if he’s slightly below his best after a 366-day absence, he should still win. Burdett Road, the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle winner, will set the pace but is unlikely to spring a surprise.
Verdict:
Lossiemouth has race fitness on her side but if Constitution Hill is anywhere close to his old ability there’s only one winner. You don’t know until they run so you can’t back him, but you can’t back against him. That said he should be favourite and 6/5 looks big. If he does win, he’ll never be that price again. A fascinating Boxing Day watch.
Kauto Star Novices' Chase (1:20)
Five runners line up, headed by The Jukebox Man, the recent Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase winner. He could be one of this season’s leading staying novice chasers and is the one to beat. My concern would be he did jump left at Newbury, and this is his first time going right handed. I think he wins but if you’re taking the short odds, it’s something to consider.
Hyland: Consistent and well-suited to good ground. Lacks the improvement potential of The Jukebox Man.
White Rhino: Likeable and improving. Should enjoy the step up to 3 miles. Could surprise at a price if handling Kempton.
Verdict:
The Jukebox Man is the one to beat, but outsider White Rhino isn’t out it should the favourite not fire.
If you want my Christmas & New Year selections you can still get them here.
Good luck with your Boxing Day bets!
John