Hi all,
The operation went well, and aside from a sore throat and some minor stiffness in my neck, I’m feeling much better than I expected. I’m not quite up to writing long pieces just yet, but I plan to ease back into it over the next couple of weeks.
In this Breeders' Cup preview, written ahead of my surgery, I’ve focused on the turf races at Del Mar and, of course, Saturday’s main event—the Breeders' Cup Classic on the dirt. Alongside each contender are my odds in brackets. This preview was sent to Victor Value subscribers on Monday before the draws were made for the Breeders’ Cup races.
Breeders’ Cup – Friday
There are three turf races on Friday.
9:45 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint – 5f
Ecoro Sieg (4/1): Japanese colt who is 2 -2 over 6f, has plenty of early speed so the drop back to 5f should be no issue. Looks to have a big chance given an inside draw and a fast break.
Big Mojo (5/1): Michael Appleby saddled Big Evs to win last year. Big Mojo looks a 5f specialist. Just edged out by Aesterius in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster. Suited by quick ground.
Ides Of March (10/1): Won maiden on third appearance and followed up in a Group 3 at the Curragh both at 6f. Off for two months but he’s got plenty of speed so there shouldn’t be any issues with the drop back to 5f.
11:05 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filles Turf – 1m
Lake Victoria (4/6): It’s not often that you see a genuine top European filly come over for the race and Lake Victoria is in that category. Unbeaten on four starts, the last two in Group 1 company. If she runs, she a class above her potential rivals.
Heavens Gate (10/1): Stablemate of Lake Victoria and another contender. Improved for the step up to 7f when winning a Group 3 at the Curragh last time. A mile should suit and should go well if Lake Victoria doesn’t run.
Fiery Lucy (12/1): Steadily progressive finishing runner-up on her last three starts, looked an unlucky when a neck behind Heavens Gate last time. Goes well on quick ground and has each way claims.
Thought Process (11/2): Has won her last three starts since switching to turf including two wins over C&D. Looks the best of the home-based juvenile fillies.
12:25am Breeders’ Cup – Juvenile Turf
British or Irish trained runners have won six of the last 10 including the last three. Aidan O’Brien aims for the hat trick with Henri Matisse and Monumental.
Henri Matisse: A winner of his first three starts including a Group 2. He looked a tricky ride when runner-up in the Group 1 National Stakes and soft ground likely against him at Longchamp. Not build on his early promise but a turning track could suit
Monumental: One from five and a disappointing beaten favourite when only 3rd of 6 in a Group 3 at Newmarket last time when possibly unsuited by soft ground. Looks the stable second string.
New Century: Overcame a slow start to beat Al Qudra in a Grade 1 at Woodbine last time and looks to have a favourites chance for Andrew Balding & Osin Murphy.
Al Qudra: Looked to be beaten on merit by New Century last time but didn’t get the best of runs 1f out and remains progressive for a yard won this in 2018 & 2021.
Aomori City: Stablemate of Al Qudra was only fourth in the National Stakes at the Curragh. Prior to that had been progressive and shaped last time like he was need of the step up to a mile.
Zulu Kingdom (8/1): Unbeaten on three starts, looks an uncomplicated colt who goes well on quick turf. Could be the best of the Americans and should go well for trainer Chad Brown who won this in 2019.
Satono Carnaval: Japanese based challenger was an impressive debut winner at Tokyo over 7f but was more workmanlike dropped back to 6f last time. Hard to weigh up his form but he’s bred for a mile and could go well in what looks a winnable race.
Breeders’ Cup – Saturday
There are four turf races on Saturday.
7:41 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – 5f
Big Evs (8/1): Won the Juvenile Turf Sprint 12 months ago. Freshened up since a disappointing run in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York. His third in the Group 1 sprint at Royal Ascot brings him firmly into the picture and he goes around a bend.
Bradsell (7/2): Returned from an absence to win the Nunthorpe and Flying Five at the Curragh. Not disgraced when runner-up on softer ground in the Abbaye at Longchamp. Yet to race around a bend but if he handles it he’s a big player.
Cogburn (2/1): Has won all three starts this season including a Grade 1 and well suited to firm ground. Prepped for this with a win in a Grade 2 at Kentucky Downs in September. Very talented and will be tough to beat.
Motorious (5/1): Not the best of passages from a high draw when a beaten favourite in 2023 Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. Three from three in turf sprints at Del Mar and has each way claims in a race where American horses have won nine of the last 10 renewals. If they go quick up front he could pick up the pieces.
9:10 – Breeders’ Cup Turf – 1m 4f
Rebel’s Romance (5/2): A six-time Group 1 winner, all abroad, including the 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf and this year’s Dubai Sheema Classic. Won the same German Group 1 he prepped in two years ago. Suited by quick ground and looks a worthy favourite for Charlie Appleby.
Jayarebe (9/2): Improving 3-year-old colt who won the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp last month. Step’s up to 1m 4f for the first time but on pedigree should stay. Trainer Brian Meehan won this race in 2006 & 2010 and has great chance of third success.
Shahryar (6/1): Japanese challenger who finished a close-up and slightly unlucky third in last year’s race. This year’s race doesn’t look as strong as 12 months ago and he’s got each way claims once again
Far Bridge (8/1): Top US middle distance turf horse who comes into the race on the back of two Grade 1’s successes. Won the same two Grade 1’s that Main Sequence landed before his win in this race in 2014. The European challenge isn’t that strong this year which gives him a chance.
9:41 – Breeders’ Cup – Classic – 1m 2f
A closer can win the Breeders' Cup Classic and four have in the past 25 years but tactical speed is a big advantage here at Del Mar. It’s going to be the ultimate test for Aidan O’Brien’s City Of Troy. Arcangues in 1993 was the last horse to win the Classic on turf debut. It’s a brave punter who takes a short price about his chance taking on some of the best dirt horses in the world.
City Of Troy (3/1): The best middle-distance horse in Europe on turf. Bounced back from a poor run in the 2,000 Guineas to win the Epsom Derby, Coral Eclipse and International Stakes. First run on dirt but his front running style should be suited to the 1m 2f trip at Del Mar. Needs to break fast but can win if he does.
Forever Young (5/1): Japanese trained 3-year-old who won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby earlier in the year. Lost his unbeaten record when an unlucky short head third in the Kentucky Derby. Prepped for this with a win in Grade 1 in Japan last month. Capable of better but not easy for a closer here.
Fierceness (7/2): Won the Breeders Cup Dirt juvenile 12 months ago and bids to become the first horse to do the double. Proved to strong for his rivals when winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga last time. Looks the best of the American based runners and a big contender.
Ushba Tesoro (8/1): Another top Japanese based dirt horse. The 7-year-old won Dubai World Cup last year and was runner-up this year’s race. A lack of early speed compromised his chance when 5th in last year’s race. A deep closer, he’ll need a pace meltdown to win but will he get it?
10:25 – Breeders’ Cup – Filly & Mare Turf – 1m 3f
Content (4/1): Won the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks in August, two subsequent poor runs could be blamed on soft ground. Back on quick ground and if she gets a strong pace is very much in the mix.
Emily Upjohn (4/1): Finished third to Content in the Yorkshire Oaks. On a losing run of 8 and the mares’ had a mostly disappointing year. Frankie Dettori back in the saddle and if she’s anywhere near her very best would win this.
War Like Goddess (5/1): Is having her fourth run at the Breeders Cup, the 7-year-old finished a close-up third in this race 2021 over C&D and third to Rebel’s Romance in the Turf in 2022. Ran Far Bridge to ½ length in a Grade 1 last time so is still capable of high-class form.
Moira (10/1): Canadian based mare was a 1 ¼ length third in last year’s race and fifth in 2022. Finished runner-up to stablemate Full Count Felicia in the Grade 1 E P Taylor (1m 2f) at Woodbine last time. First start beyond 1m 2f but could be suited by the extra furlong.
Full Count Felicia (12/1): Was allowed an uncontested lead, was 20 lengths clear at one point, when winning the E P Taylor last time. Won’t get an easy lead here and Del Mar’s 1m 3f isn’t ideal for front runners. Stamina for 1m 3f needs to be proven.
11:45 – Breeders’ Cup: Mile Turf – 1m
Arguably the most competitive race on the night and a low draw wil have an impact on the betting.
Notable Speech (3/1): Poor run at Longchamp last time can be blamed to soft ground, prior to that had won the 2,000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Will get his favoured ground here and trainer Charlie Appleby is 3-3 in the race.
Diego Velazquez (9/2): Has improved for the drop back to around a mile, on good ground, on his last two starts winning Group 3 and Group 2 contests at Leopardstown. The demands of this race could really suit the colt. Trainer Aidan O’Brien won this in 2020
Porta Fortuna (9/2): Runner-up in the Breeders Cup Fillies Juvenile last year and in the 1,000 Guineas. Has since gone onto win three Group 1’s against her own sex. A very classy filly who likes a sound surface. Against the males but fillies have won this race nine times.
Ramatuelle (9/2): Only ½ length behind Porta Fortuna when third in the 1,000 Guineas. Back from a break and produced a career best to win the Group 1 Prix Foret (7f) at Longchamp Drop back to 7f suited her last time but Del Mar’s speed favouring mile should play to her strengths.
Other contenders:
Carl Spackler (7/1): Top-rated American turf miler who has won his last two starts in Grade 1 company. The 4-year-old has good tactical speed, and this track should be ideal. Looks the best of home team. Trainer Chad Brown won this in 2019.
More Than Looks (12/1): Was a strong finishing length runner-up toCarl Spackler in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last month. Likely to be finishing his race off well and could run into the places at big odds.
Geolyph (25/1): Is probably a notch below the best turf horses in his native Japan. On a losing run that goes back goes back to April 2022 when he beat the mighty Equinox in a Grade 1 (1m 2f). Back to form last time when runner-up in Grade 2. Not sure about the drop back to a mile.
If you want my final Breeders Cup’ selections, you’ll be able to get them here.
I’ll be putting out a short column on Saturday covering Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby, though the card looks a bit disappointing with good ground expected. Ascot’s card is in a similar spot, with watering ongoing to maintain good ground.
All the best,
John