Hi all,
Inside today’ main piece you can read my preview of Championship Saturday at the Breeders Cup.
Breeders Cup: Championship Saturday
Aside from Saturday’s big races – the Classic and Distaff on dirt – I’ve focused mainly on the turf contests. You can catch three of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races on ITV4, including the Classic and the Turf.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – 5f
Motorious Aims for Redemption
Motorious’s only defeat in five runs over course and distance came when finishing a neck runner-up in this race last year. He comes here fresh and has a good chance of going one place better.
Arizona Blaze bounced back to winning ways in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh last time. He was runner-up in the Juvenile Turf Sprint 12 months ago, so clearly handles Del Mar. This looks to have been the plan all season and, from a handy low draw in stall 3, I’m expecting a big run.
Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) – 1m4f
Minnie Hauk Chases Eighth for O’Brien, Willie Mullins Takes on Breeders’ Cup
Recent Arc runner-up Minnie Hauk bids to give Aidan O’Brien an eighth win in the Turf. She’ll be tough to beat if reproducing that Longchamp effort. The most likely winner but she’s far too short given the quality she faces.
The admirable Rebel’s Romance, winner of this race in 2022 and 2023, goes for a remarkable hat-trick and could do so if Minnie Hauk isn’t at her very best. That said I think this year’s race is much deeper than last years.
Goliath, the 2024 King George winner, hasn’t quite matched that level since but arrives off a Group 1 win in Germany last time. Del Mar might not be ideal for him, yet he’ll relish the ground and has a good draw in stall 2. At 10/1, he looks the value play in the race.
Willie Mullins and the Breeders’ Cup are not a combination you’d expect. Yet the world’s best jumps trainer runs Ebor Handicap winner Ethical Diamond here. It’s a huge step up in class for him, but if anyone can handle it, Willie can. The 5yo should handle the ground, though stall 14 won’t make things easy. If the pace is strong which it should be, there’s just a chance he can get into the frame.
Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) – 1m1f
Seismic Beauty Faces Improving Rivals
Seismic Beauty heads the market after three straight wins, including a front-running Grade 1 success here last time. Stall 8 isn’t perfect, but she’s a worthy favourite and the one to beat.
That said, the Distaff looks more open than the betting implies. Clicquot comes into the race in flying form with four wins on the spin, including the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes in September. She faces older mares for the first time, but she’s improving fast.
Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) – 1m2f
Classic Wide Open Without Sovereignty
Ante post favourite Sovereignty, winner of both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes has been scratched from the race which means the Classic is now up for grabs.
Fierceness, runner-up in last year’s Classic, got back on track with a C&D Grade 1 win last time and is the one to beat.
Japanese challenger Forever Young looked better than ever when winning the Saudi Cup earlier this year and prepped nicely when winning in Japan last month. Third in last year’s race, he has solid claims now the favourite is out.
Journalism has finished runner-up to Sovereignty in the Derby and Belmont. He took advantage of Sovereignty’s absence to land the Preakness Stakes. A new rider, Jose Ortiz, takes over, and connections will hope he can find that extra spark. He could be the one to take advantage of Sovereignty’s absence.
At bigger odds, Baeza could outrun his odds. He was only a neck behind Journalism in the Kentucky Derby and has improved since, landing the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby last time. He’s drawn well in stall 2 and can hit the frame.
Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) – 1m
Sahlen Looks Value Against Favourite
Notable Speech was favourite when third in this race last year and heads the ante-post betting again. He looked unlucky when just failing in the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois before an easy Grade 1 win at Woodbine last time. This has likely been the plan once more.
Sahlen is improving rapidly after wins in a Group 3 at Deauville and the Group 1 Prix du Moulin at Longchamp. Lightly raced and progressive, he should relish the fast ground and looks better value than the favourite.
The Lion In Winter finished just ½ length behind Sahlen in the Moulin and confirmed that form when runner-up in the QEII on Champions Day. This is a quick turnaround, but he’’ll run on Lasix which could help him.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) – 1m3f
Billy Eyes Up Breeders’ Cup Glory
See The Fire, trained by Andrew Balding, tops the ante-post lists after a narrow second in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opéra at Longchamp. The extra furlong should suit, as will the quick ground but stall 14 makes life tough.
Top U.S. filly She Feels Pretty landed her fifth Grade 1 when narrowly holding on in the E. P. Taylor Stakes (1m2f) at Woodbine. This has been the long-term target, though stamina is a question and stall 13 is no help.
Gezora had a poor draw and soft ground against her when down the field in the Arc. Better judged on her Prix Diane (French Oaks) win, that form arguably makes her the one to beat. It could be a big night for her trainer Francis-Henri Graffard.
Charlie Appleby runs two – Cinderella's Dream and Diamond Rain. William Buick sides with Cinderella’s Dream, who needs to bounce back from a couple of lesser efforts but was an unlucky half-length second in this race last year and will relish the quick ground.
Diamond Rain continues to improve, finishing strongly when just touched off by She Feels Pretty in the E. P. Taylor Stakes last time. Today’s slightly longer trip will suit the 4yo. She’s a live contender and gives Billy Loughnane a huge chance to shine at the very highest level.
Village Voice makes her second start for Chad Brown after a $1.7 million sale from the Jessica Harrington yard. She got no pace to chase last time but still got up to win a Group 3 at Aqueduct last time. A stronger gallop and can see her improve again which she’ll need to do to win. Her trainer Chad Brown knows what it takes to win this race having done so three times since 2014.
Friday Racing
Wetherby’s two-day Charlie Hall meeting gets underway. The feature race is a Premier Handicap Chase (2:55).
Bottom weight Thistle Ask took a big step forward when making it 2 from 3 over fences when an all the way winner at Kelso last Saturday. That was the 8yo’s first run for Dan Skelton and he’s open to further progress over fences. First run beyond two miles but is bred to stay and of more concern would be the quick turnaround given he wasn’t the easiest to keep sound when with his previous trainer.
Magistrato beat one rival over C&D last time, but he’s been thriving this summer and is a good jumper of a fence. Has lively claims of landing the four timer.
Inedit Star is 0 from 7 over fences but ran some good races last year to place in valuable handicap chases at Aintree and Sandown in the spring. There’s a nice pot to be won with the 7yo this season and if he’s ready to roll first time today could be that day.
Consistent top weight Tommy’s Oscar is being given a chance by the handicapper. He’s won over this far in the past, but his very best form has come over shorter, and he might come up short once again.
Earlier on the card the booking of Sean Bown for Williethebuilder looks eyecatching. The top weight makes his debut for Christian Williams and is down to the same mark as when winning a handicap hurdle at this meeting last year. Yard quiet now and today’s longer trip could find him out if he’s not ready to roll. High Dancer was in good from in the spring for his previous yard and looks on a workable mark for new trainer Nicky Richards.
2:12 – Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes (Listed, 6f)
A big field of twenty juvenile fillies’ lines up for this Listed contest at Newmarket.
Spicy Marg caught the eye when finishing strongly to take fourth in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes here over 5f last month. She was beaten only a length and a half and shapes as though the extra furlong will suit. If she stays, she’s the one they all must beat.
Golden Palace ran a fine race when sixth to True Love in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes over C&D. That was a strong effort, though stall 2 could be a slight negative if the pace develops down the stands’ side. She still holds solid claims at this level.
Splish Splash took a big step forward when making all to win a Haydock maiden over 6f two weeks ago. She’ll need to improve again but looks capable of doing so and is well regarded by connections. She’s my pick, though I was hoping for a bigger price than 6/1.
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Besides the Breeders' Cup there's some high quality jumps racing on these shore on Saturday. In tomorrow's column I'll be focusing on Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase Day.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John