Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you will find more Cheltenham Festival stats.
With the Cheltenham Festival just days away, Sandown’s Imperial Cup and a normally informative EBF Final are the standout races on a relatively low-key weekend of jumps action.
Away from Sandown, Wolverhampton takes centre stage on Saturday with the BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap (2:45) and the Listed BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes (3:20) as the highlights. Both races, along with one from Hereford and four from Sandown, will be shown live on ITV.
Cheltenham Going/Ground Update
As of Wednesday lunchtime, Cheltenham was officially soft, good to soft in places. The Norwegian weather app I use forecasts 10mm of rain by Friday, but from Saturday onwards, only 4mm is expected across next week.
The track drains well, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tuesday starts on similar ground before conditions gradually dry out through the week. Of course, it all depends on how much rain actually falls—more rain means soft ground on Tuesday, less means good to soft.
Bookmakers seem to agree. On Wednesday, the Racing Post reported that William Hill was offering just 1/6 on good to soft being the official going description at the start of the Festival. Soft was priced at 4/1, good at 6/1, and heavy at 50/1.
One thing seems certain—this year’s Festival ground won’t be as testing as 12 months ago.
Cheltenham Festival: First Day Entries Confirmed
The final confirmations for Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival were revealed yesterday, with no major surprises.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: 17 entries, including nine from Willie Mullins, led by favourite Kopek Des Bordes, and three from Henry de Bromhead yard.
Arkle Novices' Chase: Nine remain, with Majborough still heading the market.
Mares’ Hurdle: Fifteen left in, including Lossiemouth (Still in Champion Hurdle), while Nicky Henderson has supplemented Joyeuse after her recent Newbury win.
Champion Hurdle: Eight runners stand their ground, although Golden Ace is likely to go for the Mares’ Hurdle
Handicaps: Now three on the opening day, and all look set for maximum fields.
Let the countdown begin!
Cheltenham Festival Stats: More Key Trends
Drum roll, please… It's time to dig into the Cheltenham Festival stats! As always, I've turned to horseracebase for insight, with these figures dating back to 2017.
Be Wary of Easy Irish Hurdle Winners Last Time Out
Look out for Irish hurdlers who won last time out by 5 to 15 lengths—they tend to perform well.
However, those who won by less than 5 lengths have struggled:
13 winners from 136 runners (10%)
A/E = 0.81
Loss of -17.7 to SP
Even more intriguing, those who bolted up by 15+ lengths have also underperformed:
1 winner from 21 runners (-15)
A/E = 0.34
These flashy Irish hurdle winners are worth opposing.
Back Paul Nolan Runners Each-Way
Paul Nolan's 1 winner from 19 runners (-6) doesn’t scream success but look deeper. Eight of those finished in the places, including a 5th (11/2) in last year’s Kim Muir.
If you’d backed all Nolan runners each-way, you'd be +7.83pts in profit and that’s not including last year’s 5th
His best chance of a win this year? Likely Feet Of A Dancer in the Pertemps Final. The mare finished third in a Leopardstown qualifier, the same race that set up Mrs Milner’s 2021 win in the Pertemps for the yard.
I'll be watching his runners closely again this year.
More Cheltenham Festival Stats to come in Friday’s column.
👉 Get My Cheltenham Pass – All my Cheltenham Festival race previews and picks for just £19.99 here.
Wincanton Pointers
A low-key day of racing on Thursday, with Wincanton providing the best of the action.
4:20 – Competitive Chase Battle
Sheldon wasn’t the easiest ride when third over C&D last time, but he’s 2 from 4 at the track and his yard is in form after winning the Grimthorpe at Doncaster on Saturday. However, Saladins Son looks the one to beat. A pulled-up favourite on his chase debut, he bounced back with an impressive C&D win 19 days ago. A 5lb rise seems fair, and he remains capable of better over fences.
4:50 – Can Drash On Ruby Finally Win?
A 14-race maiden over hurdles, Drash On Ruby has placed nine times, often undone by her jumping errors. A bad mistake cost her last time when beaten just half a length at Taunton last week. She proved she stays three miles last time, and if the first-time cheekpieces sharpen her up, she’ll be right in the mix again.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John