Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, you’ll find more Cheltenham Festival stats including one for trainer Nigel Twiston -Davies.
A Low-Key Cheltenham Build-Up?
Maybe it’s just me, but the build-up to this year’s Cheltenham Festival feels quieter than usual. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. The jumps season as a whole has felt more balanced, without the usual all-consuming Cheltenham hype.
A few factors could be behind it.
🔹The Willie Mullins’ stranglehold in several divisions.
🔹A lack of big rivalries has taken away some of the pre-festival hype.
🔹The British challenge remains as thin as ever, making it feel like an Irish-dominated meeting before it even begins. Meanwhile, other big races, like those at the Dublin Racing Festival, have helped shift some of the focus away from March.
🔹Punters might also be waiting to see how the ground shapes up before getting heavily involved.
🔹The well documented costs of attending the meeting.
Once festival week arrives, the excitement will no doubt ramp up—but for now, the build-up feels slightly subdued.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Yes, we’re just 4 days away from the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, but let’s not overlook some good racing this weekend.
On Saturday, Sandown hosts the historic Betfair Imperial Cup (2:25) and the always-informative EBF Betfair ‘National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final (1:50). The latter race is a strong future form guide—if you’d backed every runner on their next start, you’d have found 101 winners and made a £75.48 profit to a £1 stake.
The best results came from horses who ran 16 to 30 days after Sandown and those retaining the same jockey.
Naas concludes the weekend’s big races on Sunday with the Leinster National (4:45).
With Cheltenham just days away, my focus is firmly on next week. That means keeping this weekend’s form study to a minimum.
So, I’m sticking to the KISS approach—Keep It Simple, Stupid.
➤Previous winners or those who ran well in the same race last year.
➤Trainers with strong records in the race.
➤Trends qualifiers (I have five trend races on Saturday).
I’ll go through each race and, if I find horses that fit the above criteria, I’ll then assess whether they have the class/form to win and if they are the right price.
Stick to the above, and we should find winner or two.
👉 Get My Cheltenham Pass – All my Cheltenham Festival race previews and picks for just £19.99 here.
Cheltenham Festival Stats
More Cheltenham Festival Stats for you. Today I’m looking at the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Back Every Horse in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
It sounds bonkers but if you had backed every runner in the Fred Winter in the past ten years to Industry SP you would have made a £18.50 profit to £1 level stake.
You would have made an even bigger profit if you had backed every horse to Betfair SP (BFSP).
I’m not suggesting you should back every runner in this year’s Fred Winter, but it goes to show it’s a race that can provide a shock result or two. Indeed 5 of the 10 winners of the race were returned 18/1 or bigger.
If you backed every horse sent off 18/1 & bigger you would have made a £83.00 profit to £1 level stake and +156.92 to BFSP.
Can Nigel Twiston-Davies End His Cheltenham Drought?
Alan King doesn’t have many Cheltenham Festival runners these days, but his record at the meeting is poor—especially with hurdlers. His last hurdle winner came in 2013, and since 2009, he's had just 1 winner from 135 runners (-101), with 25 places.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is another trainer struggling for Festival success. He had two winners in 2016, but since then, he’s 0 from 90 runners, with just 8 places. He has the well fancied Broadway Boy in the Ultima Handicap Chase on Tuesday.
Can 2025 be the year Nigel turns it around?
My final Cheltenham Festival stats can be found in Monday’s column.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John