Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m going to look ahead to next month’s Oaks & Derby. Plus, you can read my thoughts on a quality evening card at Sandown.
Dark Cloud Hovers Over Epsom
It’s going to be a fascinating couple of days on the Epsom Down. However, there’s a big black cloud hovering over the meeting. Animal rights militants who tried to disrupt the Grand National are going to attempt do the same to the Derby.
There’s so much open land and the public has a right of access on foot to Epsom Downs. Indeed, I believe you can simply walk onto the course by the road near Tattenham Corner Station. So, it’s going to be even more difficult to police than Aintree.
I suspect this attempt will be even better organised and they will be in bigger numbers than at Aintree. I hope I’m proved wrong, but I suspect they’ll get on the track and delay the race.
They won’t have to delay the race to long either before ITV will cut over to its coverage of the FA Cup build-up. Once they have managed to get the race off the main channel they will disperse, job done.
Flat fans should be looking forward to open looking ‘blue riband' race with relish. Instead we have to just hope it goes ahead and is run with no serious disruption.
Derby
It’s an open looking Derby, isn’t it? it’s just a shame it will be run at 1:30.
I was looking at the Timeform ratings for the race and the top eight contenders are separated by just 4lbs.
Contenders:
Military Order tops the ratings and is the rightful favourite after his win in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He’s also the most probable winner.
Auguste Rodin ran too bad to be true in the 2,000 Guineas and Aidan O’Brien remain bullish but at his present odds I can’t have him. Stablemate San Antonio improved to win Chester’s Dee Stakes last time and should be suited by the step up to 1m 4f.
Arrest one the Chester Vase. If the ground was good to soft or worse, you could see the colt going off favourite. I don’t see him winning on good or quicker ground.
Dubai Mile, a Group 1 winning juvenile over 1m 2f. The colt was a 5 ¼ length 5th of 14 in the 2,000 Guineas on seasonal return. Longer trip should suit, and he’s got place claims. However, you would expect there would be a couple better from a win perspective.
Sprewell improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning a Group 3 at Leopardstown earlier this month. A quietly progressive colt he’s open to further improvement for the step up to the Derby distance.
Waipiro runner-up to Military Order in the Lingfield Derby Trial. The return to turf will suit and he’s got each way claims. However, he didn’t finish his race off as strongly as the winner did last time.
The Foxes won the Dante last week and is clearly a contender. However, he did hang to his right at York, and he can’t afford to do that Epsom.
White Birch was runner-up to The Foxes in the Dante. I thought it was an excellent trial and he was doing his best work at the finish. Needs to get the start right. If he does he’s a solid enough each way contender.
Oaks
Soul Sister’s success in last week’s Musidora means there’s meaningful opposition to favourite Savethelastdance.
I was impressed by Soul Sister’s win given she managed to come from behind on day when prominent racers held sway at York.
No many horses win a Classic trial by the sort of distance that Savethelastdance won the Cheshire Oaks. She’s guaranteed to stay the Oaks trip and although she’s yet to race on ground better than soft there’s no reason on pedigree why she won’t be just as effective on a sounder surface.
Ryan Moore will try to ensure that the race is a true test of stamina. Soul Sister will try to do her for speed in the final two furlongs.
Soul Sister’s stablemate Running Lion seems to be heading for the race now. That decision adds a further bit of interest to the race. The daughter of Roaring Lion showed a good turn of foot to win the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes (1m 4f) at Newmarket last time. She’s going the right way and capable of better. The dam side of the pedigree offer hope that she will stay 1m 4f which is by no means certain.
Warm Heart and Bluestocking were first and second in a Listed race (1m 2f) at Newbury last Saturday. Warm Heart had race fitness on her side, but she showed a good attitude to prevail and is bred to improve for the step up to the Oaks distance. Bluestocking was having her first start for 8 months and second career start. There should come on for the run and is capable of better again. However, will this race come to early in her career and might connections be better served by waiting for the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Thursday Preview
There’s the best evening card of the season at Sandown today. Last season’s Derby hero Desert Crown is set to have his first start since winning at Epsom in the in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes (7:42).
The Listed National Stakes (6:42), for the juveniles and the Group 3 Henry II Stakes (7:12) complete a six race card.
If the presence of a Derby winner doesn’t draw the crowds to Sandown this evening what will. But what gives with the races times for what is the best meeting of the day. Utterly ridiculous.
Sandown
In this preview I’m going to look at the three big races on the Sandown card starting with the Brigadier Gerard.
7:42 – Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Desert Crown faces five rivals in the Brigadier Gerard including last year’s Coronation Cup winner Hukum. The latter is a worthy adversary to the favourite but he’s having first start since a very serious injury almost ended his career and may just need the run.
On the night a bigger rival could be Cash. The lightly raced 4-year-old shaped with promise when a ¾-length 2nd of 5 to Chindit in Listed race (1m) at Ascot 22 days ago. He will strip fitter this evening and the return to 1m 2f can elicit more improvement from the colt.
With Desert Crown having a having a likely pacemaker in Solid Stone. Everything looks set for last year’s Derby winner to make a winning return to action. That said I have sneaking feeling that Cash could go well
Best of the rest.
6:42 – The National Stakes could turn out to be the race of the evening with nine of the ten declared runners having win last time out. The two I like most are Dapper Valley and Blue Storm.
Dapper Valley looked a smart juvenile when winning at Newbury on his racecourse debut last month. The ground was soft that day, but he’s bred to be effective on quicker ground. Looks sure to improve with racing and could be a Royal Ascot juvenile.
Blue Storm looked a smart juvenile when winning on racecourse debut at Newmarket last month. The runner-up won at York last week and the third won at Chester’s May Meeting, so the form of the Newbury race looks strong.
7:12 – Just five have been declared for the 2m Group 3 Henry II Stakes. If you want my honest opinion, it’s a dreadful race for the grade.
Nate The Great and Enemy were second and fifth in last year’s race. Given Nate The Great looks the only pace angle in the race I would expect him to confirm that form with Enemy once more in this small field scenario. Albeit the latter is top on Official Ratings.
Roberto Escobarr returned from a 13 month layoff with an encouraging enough ½ length 3rd of 5 at Wolverhampton in March. He’s got a bit to find on Official Rating’s with Enemy and Nate The Great but he’ll appreciate the good ground and is in the mix.
Thursday Selection:
Angels Wrath didn’t win yesterday but as I hoped she gave her backers a good run for their money to finish runner-up to Al Husn.
On to today’s pick and I’m off to Sandown.
Dapper Valley looked a smart juvenile when making a winning debut at Newbury is taken to win the National Stakes ahead of Blue Storm.
Desert Crown is expected to a winning return to action in the feature race but don’t rule out a big run from Cash. He’s a best priced 8/1 with William Hill but I wouldn’t want to be taking less than 7/1 about his chance this evening.
Sandown
7:42 – Cash – 8/1 @ William Hill.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John