Money Archives • Daily Punt

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Posted on January 27, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory Delargy of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Rory regularly beats Betfair starting price and consequently he makes steady and consistent profits.

he also gives a full analysis of every bet he gives so you know exactly why they have made each bet. These write ups invariably include other profitable info and bets that are below Rory's minimum price

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Updated 27 Jan 2020

Filed Under: Money
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Hutching Calculator – Hutching Profits

Posted on January 25, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Following from yesterdays introduction to Dutching, today I want to tell you about Hutching and the Oddschecker Hutching calculator.

The Hutching calculator can be used like the Dutching calculator but instead of taking an equal profit whichever of your selections win. You can instead bias your bet towards a particular outcome.

So you could take all your profit from what you consider to be the most likely outcome and break even on other selected outcomes.

So you are hedging your bet, you have a bet, you expect it to win, but you want to cover some other outcomes so you hedge, hence the hutching calculator.

As an example Chelsea are 1.19 to beat West Ham tonight, so they are expected to win. If we think that West Ham are unlikely to score and Chelsea will win we could frame a bet using the hutching calculator.

If we decide to bet the correct scores of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 & 4-0 which are priced up at 9.6, 7.2, 8.2, 11.5 respectively.

By adjusting our stakes we can pretty much break even on 1-0, 3-0 & 4-0 and take a profit of £38.60 on 2-0, for a total stake of £10.

If we've judged things correctly then that return compares favourably with the £1.90 profit from a straight win bet.

The image below shows the calculator and the stakes required.

The trouble with this hutching calculator is that you have to manually play around with the stakes to get your desired result.

And if all your bets were in the same market, then it's probably just as easy to do this directly into Betfair. But in this case our bets are spread across 2 markets.

Nevertheless this is a a useful way to frame bets to get better value and to bias bets towards what you consider to be the most likely outcomes.

Don't follow the crowd and just bet what is offered to you, hutch your way to profit.

Filed Under: Money
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Please Mr Santa

Posted on December 23, 2019 by Dave French • 0 Comments

If you don’t want socks or underwear for Christmas then you need to get your requests in for for stuff that you would really like.

With that in mind we have some of the lesser known betting books that will help pass away a few quiet afternoons during the holiday period.

Born to Punt is a collection of amusing events that have befell sports writer Steve Palmer.
If you want to feel a bit better about your own misfortunes at the hands of the bookies.

One reviewer summed this book up thus “Absolutely hilarious from the start! For anyone that is regularly involved in financial combat with the bookmakers, or simply intrigued into what makes thousands of people regularly frit away their finances on a variety of sports, Steve’s account is frightfully recognisable. Chasing the dream! The lazy boy lifestyle led with his accomplice through various fast-food establishments adds the required light humour! ”

Our second choice is the more serious, although not too heavy for the non mathematician, Taking Chances.

John Haigh is the author of a number of books on probability and manages to make the mathematics of betting and winning just about understandable by the man on the street.

And although this is not the latest book on the subject it is one of the more readable and is recommended for that reason

Sporting Chancer is a wonderful read that will keep you occupied and amused during the dull sober moments of the traditional christmas.

The book follows Ed Hawkins as he tries to punt himself around the world. Not in a flat bottomed boat with a big stick but by betting to fund his travels.

As well as losing in one of the biggest casinos in the world, he bets on cock fighting, plays bingo and challenges Phil ‘The Power’ Taylor to a game of darts.

Any round up of betting books would not be complete without a couple of the all time classics and here I include the books that I read as I started my own betting career.

Any of Nick Mordin’s books are worth a read as is his website where he regularly looks at racing in alternative ways.

But this is the one that I remember most fondly. Nick explains his methods and the index cards of data that he would carry to the days racing to help him identify the bets he would make.

It wraps up with an account of his own profits and losses betting around the racecourses of England.

As far as I’m aware Value Betting by Mark Coton was the first book to explain the concept of value betting. And although it was pre mainstream internet and Betfair the message is still valid today.

I’m going to finish off with Alan Potts’ Against the Crowd. Alan Potts was a pro gambler turned pundit for a while and this one has had a place on my bookshelf since the mid 90’s.

As the title suggest Alan, like Mark before him, was a value seeker. And like Nick he includes a diary of his bets over the preceding season

Todays Tip

Hexham 2.50 Ockey De Neulliac Each Way

Filed Under: Money
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Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

Posted on November 30, 2019 by Dave French • 0 Comments

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required. But don't expect to get the best bet possible using the cash out button!

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes for greening up and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these greening up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use lay calculator software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

Filed Under: Money
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Category Archives: Money

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Hutching Calculator – Hutching Profits

Please Mr Santa

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes