Cesarewitch Preview and Kempton Selection

Evening all,

Inside today’s main piece I begin my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action by putting the Cesarewitch under the microscope. Plus, there’s a selection from Wednesday’s evening meeting at Kempton.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1

It’s the highlight of Newmarket’s autumn season this weekend with seven group races across the Friday and the Saturday. For older readers the meeting was known as Newmarket’s Cesarewitch Meeting. The meeting has been rebranded as Dubai Future Champions Festival and you can see why. Although marathon Cesarewitch Handicap is still around and is the highlight for most punters, half of the races over the two days are for the juveniles. The feature race on Friday is the Group 1 bet365 Fillies’ Mile. On Saturday besides the big Handicap the highlight is the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes.

It's final two days of flat racing at York on Friday & Sunday.  It doesn’t seem that long seen we were looking forward to the start of the Dante Meeting. Saturday’s big race at York is the normally ultra-competitive Coral Sprint Trophy.

For National Hunt fans the winter jumps season is about to start in earnest. On Friday its day one of the Unibet Jump Season Opener at Chepstow. This meeting has now become the unofficial start of the winter jumps season in the UK. Viewers of ITV are in for a Friday treat with the broadcaster covering no less than ten races live from Newmarket, York, and Chepstow. On Saturday they will be covering the best of the action from Newmarket & York on a seven race programme.

Cesarewitch Handicap – Newmarket

A marathon contest for stayers run over two miles and two furlongs. It’s the race which starts in one county Cambridgeshire and finishes in another Suffolk.

First run in 1839, the same year as the Cambridgeshire, the race has been won by some top stayers including Vintage Crop (1992), Sergeant Cecil in (2005) and top dual-purpose horses down the years like Nomadic Way (1988), Top Cees (1999), Landing Light (2003) and Detroit City (2006).

In the past twenty years the top performing trainers are both more renowned for their NH horses. Willie Mullins has won three renewals and Nicky Henderson has two successes to his name.

Looking at the ten year trends:

Despite the races distance the draw has been rather important factor to look at.  Since 2012 horses drawn 25 & higher are 0 winners from 106 runners 7 placed.

Another interesting trend is horses who haven’t won the prevailing going are 0 winners from 144 runners 14 placed.

Those who ran over 1m 6f & 1m 6 ½ f on their last start – 0 winners from 102 runners 9 placed.

Track last time out: Ascot, Ayr, Goodwood, and Haydock – 0 winners 97 runners 6 placed.

I wasn’t expecting the race to be much of a trend’s heavy, but it is.  

Thirty five were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation and you would expect there should be another 30+ runner field.

There has been plenty of money in the ante post market for smart hurdler Adagio, trained by David Pipe. His price contracted from 25/1 into 13/2 in the last few days.  He’s only had two starts on the flat and he could be very well handicapped given he’s rated 65lb higher over hurdles.

The bookies have recent Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville (5/1) as the ante post favourite. He only gets a 4lb penalty for his Curragh success so remains well in. But will he run?

Long List

Nicky Henderson who won this with Buzz 12 months ago relies on Ahorsewithnoname (6/1) to give him back to back wins. She’s up 10lb for her latest success at York in May and has been trained for this race since that York success.  A thorough stayer, William Buick has been booked and I wouldn’t put anyone off the mare provided she doesn’t get drawn out wide.

Run For Oscar (8/1) has been aimed for the race since winning at Haydock in August. Up 8lb but today’s longer trip will suit the 7-year-old. He does fail the last course trend.

For a competitive handicap the ante post market is a bit strange. Take out those four runners and the next best is a best priced 20/1. At that price we have Irish challengers Gibraltar and Favorite Moon. The first must be respected given he’s trained by a certain Willie Mullins. He stays well and although this would be a step up in class for the 5-year-old, but he ticks the trends boxes and high on my shortlist. A marathon trip like this could unlock a bit more improvement in Favorite Moon but he would be of even more interest if he the ground was to be much softer.

Others on my shortlist at this stage are Call My Buff, Inchicore, Land Of Winter, Rajinsky & Zoffee.

Cesarewitch Verdict:

Personally, I will be holding fire until we know the outcome of the draw and what the prevailing going is. You can see why the money has come in for Adagio. He could be extremely well handicapped returning to the flat for over two years. Ahorsewithnoname looks a rock solid contender and although she’s short enough for handicap like this, I like her claims. On good ground I favour Gibraltar over Favorite Moon. Run For Oscar must be there on form and has been in my tracker since his last win but there are several others that could still be worth a bet.

Wednesday Racing

The best of the action on Wednesday appears to be at Nottingham and Kempton.

Nottingham

Opera Ghost looks of interest in the Nursery (3:50). The son of Camelot improved for the step up to a mile and as testing ground when a 3 ½ length 2nd of 7 to Local Dynasty at Sandown (1m) three weeks ago. The ground won’t be as soft here though, but today’s extra distance should be a positive.

Professional Widow finished one place behind Cisco Disco when a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 8 to Tommy G at Ayr last month. She didn’t get the best of runs between the final two furlongs that day and this previous C&D winner shouldn’t be far away in the mile handicap (4:20). Drawn out wide in stall 12 does temper enthusiasm though.

Alternative Fact would be of interest back over a mile in the second division of the Watch On Racing TV Handicap (4:55) especially if the ground was soft. All three of his career wins have come on soft ground.

Roger Varian is 4 winners from 13 bets 31% +15 8 placed 62% with his runners in Nottingham handicaps in the past 2-years. He saddles Deferred in the Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap (5:30). Deferred posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ½ length 2^nd of 8 at Lingfield 15-days ago. If he can reproduce his all-weather form to grass, he’s big player on handicap debut. That said he does have a wide draw in stall 13 to overcome. Vega Sicilia wasn’t suited by the drop back to 7f when 2nd of 6 at Carlisle last month. He remains capable of progress going into handicap for the first time.

Kempton

7:00 – We haven’t seen Diocles Of Rome for 301 days but he won this corresponding race last year and is 3 wins from 7 runs 5 placed over C&D.  This has traditionally been the 7-year-old’s time of year to as he’s 4 wins from 8 runs 6 placed between October & December. If he’s ready to roll after his long absence he won’t be far away.

7:30 – Willem Twee looked a potential Group sprinter when comfortably landing the hat trick over C&D two starts back. Disappointing on good to soft back on turf at Ascot last month but the 3-year-old might be worth giving another chance to back on this surface.

Wednesday Selection:

A few of interest at Nottingham but I’m heading to Kempton for Wednesday’s selection. Willem Twee has tempted me but I'm happy to take a chance that Diocles Of Rome is fit enough on his return to action.

Kempton

7:00 – Diocles Of Rome – 9/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Monday bets.

John