Challenge Cup Contenders: Native Warrior Heads a Strong Field

Hi all,

In today’s main piece I kick off the weekend build-up with a look at Ascot’s Challenge Cup (Handicap). Plus. there’s a bonus glance at tonight’s Kempton card.

Stellar Weekend of Group 1 Action

We’re set for a bumper weekend of big-race action.

At Longchamp, the two-day Arc meeting begins on Saturday with Group 1 highlights in the Prix du Cadran and Prix de Royallieu. Closer to home, Newmarket stages the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes (2:40). ITV Racing covers four races from the Rowley Mile alongside five from Ascot, where the Challenge Cup Handicap (3:35) takes centre stage for fans of big field handicaps. Redcar also chips in with the Listed William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (3:20).

Then comes Sunday — the biggest day of Flat racing in Europe. Longchamp’s card boasts six Group 1s, headed by the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe itself. The Group 1 Arc supporting races are the Prix Marcel Boussac, Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère, Prix de l’Abbaye, Prix de l’Opéra and Prix de la Forêt, rounding off a truly stellar card.

BetMGM Challenge Cup – Ascot

The BetMGM Challenge Cup Handicap at Ascot goes under the big-race microscope today.

The weather forecast suggests a largely dry week, though showers could arrive on Friday and Saturday. They’re far from certain, but worth monitoring as any ease in the ground would change the balance.

I dipped into horseracebase for the key trends for the BetMGM Challenge Cup.

Top weights struggle: 0 winners from 18, though three winners have come from just 1lb below.

Last-time-out winners rare: Only 2 winners from 57 runners, and none from 35 since 2012.

Draw wide beware: Stalls 1 and 18 are 0 winners from 29 runners.

High-class runners underperform: Runners with Group 1 or Group 2 experience are just 2 winners from 94 runners.

Proven stamina over further helps: Half of the last 16 winners had scored at least twice over further than 7f.

Clear Favourites are profitable: Clear favourites are 5 winners from 16 runners +12.08, 8 places.

A few interesting trends there, suggesting avoiding the top weight, steering clear of those drawn out on the wings. You can give extra credit to horses proven over further and clear favourites are overperforming.

Challenge Cup Contenders:

Thirty-three were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage of which 18 can run.

Native Warrior, a recent C&D winner, heads the market. He’s 8lb higher this time but ticks plenty of boxes for Karl Burke, fresh from Cambridgeshire glory.

Great Acclaim chased Native Warrior home that day, only a length and a half adrift, and now enjoys a 5lb pull. He’s been in excellent form this season and should go well.

Back in Black shaped well last time when third at Doncaster, finishing his race off strongly. He needs five to come out to get a run, but the 3yo looks ready to strike if he does.

Northern Express hasn’t got his head in front this year but won a similar C&D handicap last summer from 4lb higher. Dangerous if back to that level.

Tarkhan returned to form when edged out at Newbury on soft last time. Any cut would play to the 6yo’s strengths, and his yard won this race in 2018.

Thunder Roar was back to winning ways at Ayr last month and thrives in the autumn — his October record reads 114221. Testing ground would boost his claims.

Billyjoh is often finishing late, as he did when third at Goodwood last time. On a fair mark but just 1-21 on turf, which tempers enthusiasm but can’t be discounted if getting a strong pace.

Linwood finished 4 lengths behind Tarkhan when fifth at Newbury last time. Likely remains well treated if he gets quicker ground, where his best form lies.

Two Tribes has had a superb season, taking the International Handicap over C&D before bagging the Stewards’ Cup. His Ayr Gold Cup effort is best ignored, given he was on the wrong side of the draw. He’s another who’ll prefer a sound surface.

Challenge Cup Verdict

Native Warrior is the right favourite, but 5/1 feels on the short side in such a competitive handicap. Back in Black has been well backed — cut from 14/1 into 7/1, I missed the big odds while Billyjoh has halved in price from 25/1 to 12/1. Of the others still at double-figure odds, Northern Express looks a touch of value at 16/1 with bet365, while Linwood appeals at 25/1 with Paddy Power if the ground keeps drying out.

Wednesday Racing

Kempton takes centre stage this evening with a decent card. The highlight is the 6f conditions race (6:00), the most valuable contest on the day. Supporting races include qualifiers for both the London Middle Distance Series (6:30) and the London Mile Series (7:00).

6:00 – Conditions Race (Class 2) – 6f

Al Shabab Storm tops the ratings but has struggled for form this year after a fine 2024.

Ten Pounds, just 1lb below him, must give weight but arrives in better heart. He’s already won at Newmarket (7f) in the spring and placed in the Wokingham Handicap and Bunbury Cup. He’s two from two on the all-weather (tapeta) and goes well fresh, so looks a big player.

Drama has 9lbto find on official figures with Ten Pounds, yet his course record commands respect. A decisive C&D handicap winner last month, his C&D form figures are 31511. Always needs respecting around here.

6:30 – Handicap (Class 4) – 1m3f

Port Of London made all to win his novice here (1m4f) 16 days ago. Wasn’t doing much in front that day and cheekpieces are added. He’s open to improvement on handicap debut.

Power Of Destiny has been below form this year but is back on the same mark as when winning over C&D last November. First-time cheekpieces could spark a revival.

Gaassee blew the start at Chester last time but is better judged on his Haydock success two runs ago. A nose second in a similar C&D handicap in January, he remains on a workable mark if bouncing back.

7:00 – Handicap (Class 4) – 1m

Footwork likes to front-run and won here (7f) last October before scoring again at Haydock in May. Fresh from a break, he’s unexposed at this trip but will face pace pressure here.

Talis Evolvere drops into Class 4 company and is 9lb below his last winning mark. A previous C&D scorer, he has a handy low draw and a 7lb apprentice booked.

Borgi, a five-time tapeta winner, ran a close fourth at Southwell 10 days ago. He’s 2lb below his last winning mark and looks primed to strike.

Cogitate flopped in the Series Final her last month but now drops back to Class 4, where he won at Salisbury in May. Needs to bounce back but his yard is in much better form now.

Olympic Candle, a wide draw to overcome, makes his first start since March. A course winner at two, he’s well treated on his best form. With Oisin Murphy back on for Saeed bin Suroor, the trainer-jockey stats demand respect: nine winners from 12 runners +22,59, 10 places since 2024.

Staking Challenge Selection

Kempton

7:00 – Borgi – £1.60 win – 11/1

Running Total: £71.20

Tomorrow I’ll continue my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action.

Best of luck with your Wednesday bets.

John