Hi all,
Inside today's main piece I'm previewing Saturday's BetMGM Challenge Cup at Ascot.
Inspiral is set for retirement after her final run in Saturday’s Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (2:40) at Newmarket, and she could clash with stablemate Nashwa in what promises to be a thriller on the Rowley Mile. However, it was soft ground at Newmarket on Wednesday morning, so Inspiral run. On the undercard, the £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (2:05) is sure to draw attention
Over at Ascot, the £180,000 BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (3:35) steals the spotlight. Ascot undercard also features the Bengough Stakes (3:00).
Redcar's most valuable race day is headlined by the £150,000 William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (2:45).
And of course, over in Paris, it’s Arc weekend. One of the greatest races of the year, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3:00) on Sunday is the highlight. Longchamp hosts five other Group 1s, including two races for juveniles and the Foret, Abbaye, and Opera. It’s a day you won’t want to miss.
ITV Racing will be showing eight races on Saturday from Ascot, Newmarket, and Redcar. You can also catch Sunday’s Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe live on ITV3.
Not only is the Arc Europe’s top middle-distance race, but it’s also a personal favourite of mine, despite a poor record until 2021. My luck changed with 100/1 winner Torquator Tasso, who I tipped for Victor Value subscribers. Can lightning strike twice? Join me here to find out!
Ascot: BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Saturday’s big handicap is the Challenge Cup at Ascot. A couple of trends stand out. Fifteen different trainers have won since 2008. Favourites have also done better than expected, with five winners from 15 bets, producing a profit of +13.08.
Here are two negative trends worth noting:
Runs (Distance): 2 & 10
Percentage of Horses Beaten Last Race.
For 13 years prior to 2022, winners fitted the above two trends. However, in 2022 Escobar broke the pattern with 22 starts at 7f, and last year's winner Atrium had finished 6th of 7 on his previous run.
Contenders:
There were 36 left in at Monday’s final stage, but with a maximum field of 18, we should see the race fill up by Thursday’s declarations.
Goodwood winner Qirat leads the ante-post betting for this year’s Challenge Cup. He’s now 5lb higher, but the 3-year-old handles an easy surface. Fresh, a recent course winner and former C&D victor, is next in the betting.
William Haggas may run the improving 3-year-old Germanic. He won this race with a 3-year-old in 2021. Other fancied runners include Volterra, Carrytheone, and recent C&D runner-up Akkadian Thunder.
Richard Fahey has two possible runners in Ramazan, who was second in the Victoria Cup (C&D), and Golden Mind. Saffie Osborne has been booked for last year’s runner-up Popmaster booked. Clifford Lee is set to ride United Approach for James Tate. Lee will be bidding for a third successive big Saturday handicap success.
Wednesday Racing
Today was supposed to be Grassroots Series Finals Day at Nottingham, with good prize money up for grabs in the five finals. However, the course failed to pass a precautionary morning inspection, and the meeting has been abandoned.
Best of luck with your Wednesday bets!
John