Champions Day Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I have previewed the first five races on Champions Day.

Champions Day offers UK punter’s a final chance to bet into the World Pool.  I’m not here to promote the World Pool. However, there are a couple of good reasons why you should seriously consider playing in it.

Firstly, it’s a totally different betting market. In all honest there is very little to choose between UK bookmakers in terms of prize.  Because racing fans from across the world including Australia, Hong Kong and America are betting into the World Pool. The prices are determined by the amount of money on each of the runners and that means it’s down to what the world’s betting population are thinking not just the UK punters.

Secondly, and even more importantly your bets aren’t restricted by the bookies trading desk. Your bets don’t have to go to a trader for approval and your stake won’t be limited. You just place the bet and that’s it.

If you’re betting into the World Pool through your Tote account. You’ll also have the extra bonus that your guaranteed to get the best of the World Pool win price or the SP whichever is bigger.

What’s not to like?

Ascot: Champions Day

Fingers crossed Ascot has missed most of the heavy rain bought by Storm Babet. The going was described as soft on Friday morning on the straight and round courses and good, good to soft in places on the inner track.

A decision to switch the races due on the round course to the hurdles track was expected on Friday lunchtime. Some connections will be happy with a change, but some won’t. Since Champions Day was first inaugurated in 2011 the inner course has only been used once in 2019.

Despite the allure of going racing given the weather you're probably better watching all the action on ITV which is covering all six races live on Saturday afternoon.

1:15 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m

On soft ground this looks between last year’s top stayer Kyprios and Trueshan who bids for a race four timer. Broome is likely to help make the pace for his stablemate Kyprios and that won’t allow Trueshan an uncontested lead which he got when winning the Prix du Cadran at Longchamp last time. I was underwhelmed with Kyprios’ return in the Irish St Leger but if he’s back to last year’s best he’s wins and would be value at around 11/8. On this year’s form Trueshan might be a bit of value if he goes to around 5/2. That said I think Kyprios is the most likely winner. It’s a no bet race for me.

1:50 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

In truth this year’s renewal looks a Group 2 masquerading as a Group 1.

Kinross won last year’s race and soft ground really suits the 6-year-old and he’s a worthy short- priced favourite.  He’s the Group 1 winner in the race and the class act and the most likely winner.

I thought Vadream looked value at 16/1 earlier in the week. However, this proven mudlark is a best priced 13/2 now which doesn’t make much appeal.

I also liked Rohaan earlier in the week and at double figure odds I still do. He was a 3 length fourth in last year’s but did best of the group that raced more far side. The 5-year-old gained a fifth C&D success in handicap 15 days ago and although I don’t think he’ll beat a Kinross at his best he won’t be far away. . Ryan Moore 3-6 on the gelding is back in the saddle for the first time since winning the Wokingham Handicap on him.

I’m not sure Believing wants the ground to testing (has won on soft) but the 3-year-old posted a career best when a ¾ length 3^rd of 16 in the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup last month and has each way claims.

2:25 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f

A good sized field of 14 fillies & mares are set to meet the starter.  Just 3lb separates the top six on Official Ratings. 

Free Wind and Jackie Oh are vying for favourtism. The first named will be hoping that the race is switched to the hurdles track as she doesn’t want testing ground. No ground concerns for Jackie Oh although she must prove her stamina for 1m 4f.

Bluestocking disappointed in a Listed race at Chester last time but the first time cheekpieces go on though and a reproduction of her Irish Oaks runner-up performance would see her very much in the mix.

A good stamina test will suit French challenger Rue Boissonade. She won on heavy ground earlier in the season and isn’t out of this on Official Ratings.

Terms of Endearment goes well on soft ground and a strongly run 1m 4f will suit. The 4-year-old improved to win a Group 3 at Cork (heavy) in August and can’t be totally dismissed.

3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

This has the potential to be the race of Champions Day. Paddington is back at a mile and will like the softer ground. He’s a worthy favourite but does face several talented rivals and there’s three that I would rather be with.

Tahiyra is unbeaten on her last three starts in Group 1 company and her potent turn of foot makes her a serious rival to Paddington. I think she’s capable of an even better performance than she’s shown so far. However, will heavy ground blunt her speed, and will she run if its heavy? If the ground is ok for her, I think she can beat Paddington.

Nashwa looked well suited to the drop back to a mile when winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket in July. The 4-year-old comes here rather than go for the Champion Stakes over 1m 2f. A high class filly at her best and is very much one to consider.

I have fancied French challenger Big Rock for this race since he finished runner-up to Arc winner Ace Impact in the French Derby. He should get the testing ground he needs but I’m hoping connections let him go from the front rather than change tactics and hold him up which has been suggested.

3:45 – Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

Like 12 months ago nine are set to line up for the most valuable race on Champions Day. If the race is switched to the inner track, it will benefit International Stakes winner Mostahdaf. He’s the best horse in the race on ratings but does need good or quicker ground to be at his best. So there’s a good chance he won't run.

I don’t think there’s a standout contender on the likely slower ground and it’s a very winnable race.

Bay Bridge

Won this race last year and wasn’t really suited by quick ground when 6th in the Arc last time.  He likely needs soft in the going description to win, for a second year running, but if he gets it can do so.

Horizon Dore

Is a rather surprising ante post favourite. The French challenger completed a four timer when winning the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp three weeks ago. He’s going the right way for sure but has yet to run in Group 1 company.

King Of Steel

Runner-up in the Derby and third in the King George VI in July can go close on ground and over a distance that should suit. There’s a Group 1 in the colt and it could come today.  If any jockey can get him to win its Frankie Dettori. 

Via Sistina

Runs here rather than the Fillies & Mares race earlier on the card. A Group 1 winner having landed the Pretty Polly Stakes (1m 2f) at the Curragh in the spring, and she was only beaten a nose in a Group 1 at Deauville last time. Goes well with juice in the ground and isn’t of this.

My Prospero

Was a ½ length behind Bay Bridge in last year’s race. He bounced back to winning ways in a Goodwood Listed race (soft) last time. He’ll need to better what he did last time by some way but can’t be totally ruled out.

Royal Rhyme

Only won an Ayr Listed race last time but he’s going the right way and is 3-3 on soft ground. He’ll need to have improved again to win but that’s possible he can. However, he does need plenty of juice in the ground to do so.

The outsider of the whole field is Point Lonsdale. The Aidan O’Brien trained 4-year-old has been used as a pacemaker on his last two starts. However, he is 4-4 on soft/heavy ground and will be ridden to achieve his best possible position. I don’t think he’ll be good enough to win a race like this but if it was soft and he was to get an uncontested lead he could get into the places. I’m probably mad to think it but the 66/1 available with Coral looked big to me and even the 40s is potentially good value.

Champions Day Verdict:

The switcher to the tighter inner track probably isn’t helpful to the big King Of Steel although the better ground will suit him in the Champions Stakes.

The QE11 looks the race of the day if Tahiyra runs. I have been saying I think we still haven’t seen the very best of the filly yet and provided the straight course isn’t bottomless I think she can win. If it is very testing, I wouldn’t put any one off French challenger Big Rock.

As for the rest of the card. Kinross looks a worthy short-priced favourite of the Champion Stakes. If C&D specialist Rohaan is to ever win a Group 1 sprint it will be today.

If Bluestocking can reproduce her ½ length second to Savethelastdance in the Irish Oaks, she’s the one to beat in the Fillies’ & Mares race. I’m hopeful she can in the first time cheekpieces and she’s my idea of today’s nap.

I’m not sure how the draw will work out in the Balmoral Handicap. There seems to be pace on both sides of the track but if most of the field gravitate far side it might inconvenience those drawn high which include one of my fancies Al Mubhir. It’s a race where you could easily go with three and not get one to finish in the first four. My hunch is the winner will be found in the top half of the weights. We'll know if I'm right by 4:45.

Saturday Selection

Ascot

2:25 – Bluestocking – 8/1 @ Coral.

There’s some good racing on Sunday with the highlight being the JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National at Limerick. Given the action is decent its highly likely I will be doing a short Sunday column.

On Monday I will be looking back at the Champions Day action.

I’m having a five day break on the Isle Of Wight next week which means Monday’s column will be the last I’m doing until next Saturday.

Good luck with your Saturday bets.

John