Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find a couple of future winners. Plus, a profitable handicap hurdle angle.
What Did We Learn at the Weekend?
Paul Nicholls is usually quiet in January after his horses get their flu jabs, but this year has been particularly slow—just 2 winners from 20 runners in the last two weeks.
It’s even worse for Harry Derham, who is winless with 26 runners in the same period. While he’ll bounce back, I’m steering clear of his yard for now whatever their odds.
Tom Lacey is another trainer struggling, with no winners from his last 21 runners over 30 days.
Even Venetia Williams, despite In d'Or’s win on Saturdau, is one to approach cautiously. Just 2 winners from her last 23 runners. Below par runs from Royale Pagaille, Martator, and The Famous Five on Saturday highlight the yard’s issues.
Some pundits ignore trainer form completely, but I think that’s risky. A “cold” stable reduces the likelihood of horses running to their true form, affecting their value as bets. That’s a hard lesson I learned after backing Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock.
If you’re new to betting, factoring in trainer form is better than ignoring it altogether. It might save you from backing horses unlikely to perform to expectations.
Future Winners
I recapped the Berkshire Winter Million in Monday’s column, and while Cheltenham and Windsor are different tracks, I believe this meeting will produce a Cheltenham Festival winner or two. I’ve even added a few ante-post bets for Cheltenham—more on that in Wednesday’s column.
The valuable handicap hurdle won by Secret Squirrel on Friday should prove strong form. Secret Squirrel looks well-treated under his 5lb penalty for the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Newbury next month.
In the same race, Navajo Indy and Beat The Bat also caught the eye:
Navajo Indy: Eight pounds higher than his Newbury win, he struggled with the early pace over Windsor’s sharp two miles. Staying on late to get within three lengths of the winner suggests he’ll relish a return to Newbury’s more galloping track.
Beat The Bat: Another needing more of a stamina test. A winner over an extended 2m 3f, the sharp two miles at Windsor didn’t suit, and he stayed on late for 7th. A step back up in trip should see him back in the winners emclosure.
Fortunate Man looks every inch a future long distance handicap chaser. He impressed when winning at Aintree over 3m 1f and confirmed his potential in Sunday’s Fitzdares Windsor Stayers Handicap Chase. Despite top weight (12-00) and a 5lb penalty, he finished a brave 3½-length second to the well-handicapped Planned Paradise. With just four starts over fences, he’s still improving and remains one to follow.
On Course Delivers!
The ever excellent On Course Profits magazine continues to deliver value. If you’re not already a subscriber, you’re missing out.
Those on their mailing list will have seen their Christian Williams handicap chase angle highlight a 25/1 winner at Windsor on Sunday. Inspired by that, I’ve decided to share a trainer angle for the first quarter of the year, focusing on Charles Byrnes’ handicap hurdlers.
Like the Christian Williams angle there won’t be many selections, but you can add it to your portfolio.
Charles Byrnes Handicap Hurdlers (January–March)
Charles Byrnes has won with 1 in 5 handicap hurdlers during this period and has been profitable for the last three seasons.
While he’s 0-1 in 2025 so far, winners are likely in the coming weeks.
You could have improved an already excellent win strike rate by focusing on his handicap hurdles not wearing headgear.
Over the past six years, this angle has consistently delivered profits, including a £110.80 return to a £10 level stake in 2024. One to watch!
We don’t have long to wait for a qualifier as Charles Byrnes saddles one Diamond Dollar (2:10) at Down Royal this afternoon.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John