Hi all,
I covered trainer angles for the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) in yesterday’s column. Today, the focus switches to the action this side of the Irish Sea.
Before that, a few final stats for Leopardstown.
Dublin Racing Festival: Note Last Time Out Winners
Last-time-out winners have a strong record at the DRF. Since 2022, just over 70% of races have been won by horses successful on their previous start.
In three of the last four years, those qualifiers have returned a profit to both SP and BFSP.
It may also pay to focus on last-time-out winners returning after 46 to 365 days off the track.
British-trained runners have struggled. Just 12 have travelled over since the meeting began, with only Madara winning in 2024. Numbers look small again, although Haiti Couleurs is expected to make the trip for Saturday’s Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (3:30). That race and the Grade 1 Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (2:55) are now being shown live by ITV Racing.
On Sunday ITV Racing will show five races live from the DRF. Plus, six from Musselburgh on a bumper Sunday of action for free-to-air viewers.
Most of my form work this weekend centres on the DRF, and my strongest bets are likely to come there. Still, there’s good racing at Sandown and Musselburgh.
Sandown
The Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (2:40) is the feature race. Nine were entered on Monday, but that number will thin out come final declarations today.
Kitzbuhel could represent Willie Mullins after his impressive Grade 1 Kauto Star (3m) win at Kempton. He’s two from two over fences and heads the market at around 7/4. His jumping was quality last time and he’s the right favourite.
Steel Ally, also unbeaten over fences (2-2), is next best at 3/1. This 2m4f trip looks ideal and his Ascot Grade 2 win makes him a serious challenger.
Gordon Elliott won this in 2023 with Gerri Colombe. He may not bring Kala Conti, but if he did, the mare would command respect with her 7lb mares’ allowance.
Sixmilebridge made it two from two over fences at Cheltenham last month. He’s open to improvement and soft ground would play to his strengths.
Mambonumberfive is a young chaser who I like. He’s 3 from 3 over fences after his win in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices' Chase (2m) at Kempton last time. There’s more to come from the 5yo over fences albeit stamina for 2m4f on heavy ground will ask another question of him.
By the time you read this, we’ll know whether Sandown stages a chase-only card. With the hurdles track already heavy on Tuesday, that looks likely. For that reason, I’ve ignored the hurdle races for now.
Mr Vango heads the betting for the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (3:42). Testing ground will suit, but three miles looks short of his best. Much as I like him, I’ll be looking to take him on.
Musselburgh
ITV Racing will show three races live from the Scottish track.
Minella Study, unbeaten in three hurdle starts, continues his Triumph Hurdle preparation in the Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle (1:10). He sets a solid standard and will be tough to beat.
Welsh Charger and Afadil, first and second in last year’s Scottish County Hurdle (1:43), could renew rivalry. Afadil is 2lb better off this time. Star Of Guiting is 6lb higher than his New Year’s Day C&D win but is well suited to this sharp two miles.
The feature race is the bet365 Scottish Champion Chase (2:20). Insurrection heads the market after shaping well when third over C&D on New Year’s Day and should come on for that run. Yard form isn’t great, but Paul Nicholls does well at the meeting.
The Kalooki Kid, last year’s winner, is 7lb higher but this has likely been the plan. Tommy’s Oscar has tumbled down the weights and, while 2m4f stretches him, the veteran is too well treated to ignore.
We don’t know who runs at Sandown and Musselburgh but my early look at the racing suggests there could be plenty I’m interested in.
Thursday Racing
Thursday’s most valuable contest is the Dick Hunt Handicap Chase at Wincanton (3:33).
Collectors Item was the first to catch my eye. The 9yo ran well on his seasonal return when second to Jubilee Express at Chepstow. He failed to back that up in the Welsh Grand National, but that’s easy enough to forgive. He’s now 4lb higher than when landing the Somerset National here last January, over slightly further. He’s not the most consistent, but from a handicapping angle he has claims. The yard also won this race in 2021.
My Silver Lining was pulled up after a mistake at the sixth in the Surrey National ten days ago. Prior to that, she ran a solid race when second to Grand Geste in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. She’s probably not the mare who won the Classic Chase two years ago, but she’s now 2lb below her last winning mark. With the yard back among the winners, she must be respected.
Largy Poet is one of two Paul Nicholls runners. He looked all about stamina when winning a heavy-ground handicap chase at Exeter last February and returned with a solid second at Fontwell but has disappointed twice since. Needs to bounce back, and the stable form is a concern.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John