Morning all,
Inside today’s main piece I continue my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action and have an each-way selection in the Sunday’s Grade 1 Dublin Chase at Leopardstown. Plus, there’s a return of my ‘Path To Cheltenham’ series and a Thursday tip from Wincanton.
Something For the Weekend – Part 2
Sunday sees day two at the Dublin Racing Festival where Honeysuckle, bids to extend her unbeaten run in the Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (3.00).
Besides Honeysuckle the exciting Galopin Des Champs will bid to make it 2-2 over fences in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (1.20). The Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (1.50) will see the return of Chacun Pour Soi. His stablemate Sir Gerhard is one of the leading fancies for Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (3.35). It could be a very big Sunday for Willie Mullins.
It’s also day two of Scottish Trials Weekend at Musselburgh on Sunday. On Sunday ITV are broadcasting four races from Musselburgh and as a bonus five races from the final day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.
Ladbrokes Dublin Chase – Leopardstown
Eight stand their ground for Sunday’s Grade 1 Dublin Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. That’s good news for those looking for an each-way punt in the race.
Trainer Willie Mullins has won all four running’s of the race and Chacun Pour Soi bids for the hat trick. The 10-year-old was a bitterly disappointing 8/13 favourite when well beaten in the Tingle Creek at Sandown on his seasonal reappearance last time. Needs to bounce back from that below par effort but his form figures at Leopardstown are 2111. If he’s back to last season’s best he wins.
Greaneteen took advantage of Chacun Pour Soi’s dismal run to win the Tingle Creek. The 8-year-old was then no match for Shishkin when a ten-length runner-up to that one in Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton last time. On rating’s he’s Chacun Pour Soi main rival but there’s a chance he’s a better going right-handed.
On form the other six runners look to be fighting it out for place money. The one that I like most is Dunvegan. The 9-year-old has developed into a high-class two-mile handicap chaser this season winning his last two starts at Fairyhouse. Granted he does go very well at latter track but deserves to take his chance in graded company. I don’t think he’ll win but he’s got good each way claims.
Verdict: If Chacun Pour Soi is back to his best he wins. He’s a best priced 5/6 with Ladbrokes & Paddy Power which looks good to me, if you like your shorties. However, at 12/1 with Paddy Power, paying 3 places, Dunvegan looks the each-way bet in the race.
Advice: Dunvegan – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 3 places 1/5 odds).
Path To Cheltenham
My Cheltenham Hurdle ante post selection Saint Roi takes on Honeysuckle in Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle on Sunday. I’m hoping for a good run to keep his Cheltenham hopes alive.
Today I’m putting up my fourth Cheltenham Festival ante post selection.
National Hunt Chase
The National Hunt Chase used to be run over 4m but is now run over 3m 6f. However, it remains the longest race at the Cheltenham Festival. Due to Covid the professional jockeys replaced the amateurs last year but the latter are back again this year.
The Gordon Elliot trained Run Wild Fred and the Willie Mullins trained Stattler are the joint 7/2 favourites. The former ran out a comfortable winner of the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase before finishing runner-up to stablemate Fury Road in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Stattler a useful staying novice hurdler last season made a winning chase debut in a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse. Upped in class he had to dig deep to wear down Farouk D'alene on the run-in to win a Grade 3 novices’ chase at Naas (3m 1f) last Sunday. He should be effective over further and is open to more improvement over the larger obstacles.
Pats My Fancy
The front two in the ante post market clearly have clear claims in the National Hunt Chase. However, I’m going with one of the home team here at it’s the Rebecca Curtis Pats Fancy.
A useful novice hurdler last season, Pats Fancy has taken his form to another level since going chasing. A winner of his last two starts, both at Chepstow. Both those successes have come at 2m 7 ½ f but he’s bred to stay further. He held off useful handicap chaser Gericault Roque who has boosted the form since for the first of those wins and then comfortably beat recent Cheltenham winner Imperial Alcazar by 11 lengths at the Welsh Grand National meeting. He finished his race off strongly that day which suggests he will relish the 3m 6f of the National Hunt Chase.
The 7-year-old also has entry in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase but trainer Rebecca Curtis has said this will be his Cheltenham target. He was due to run at Exeter yesterday but was a non-runner due to pulling a shoe off.
Curtis doesn’t have may runners at the Cheltenham Festival but since 2012 she’s trained 5 winners from 46 runners +38.38. One of those five winners was Teaforthree who won the race in 2012.
Selection: Pats Fancy – 20/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (EW)
Thursday Racing
There’s jumps action this afternoon from Wincanton and Kelso this afternoon and an all-weather card at Southwell & Chelmsford this evening.
Guy was just touched off by Patroclus at Leicester yesterday. I’m off to Wincanton for a selection in what looks the race of the day.
Wincanton
4:10 – I’m going to forgive Didero Vallis his last run at Ascot. He’s no 0-4 there and just doesn’t seem to like that track. Prior to that run he had finished a useful 3-length 2nd of 7 at Ludlow. Not the easiest to catch right. Although he did win a Catterick 12 months ago, off 3lb lower, and ran even better when beaten a neck by Kitty’s Light at Kelso a month later. Slight concern about the ground, fine on good to soft. However, what really stands out is the 9-year-old’s record in field sizes eight or less – 4 wins from 7 starts +21.62 7 placed (all his career wins).
Selection: Didero Vallis
Cheers
John