Hi all,
National Hunt’s pre-Christmas big race caravan rolls back into Cheltenham on Friday for its two-day December Meeting.
For readers of a certain vintage, the big race will always be the Massey Ferguson Gold Cup. For others, it’s the Tripleprint or the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. This year, the race will be run in memory of racing commentator John Hunt’s family.
The Hunt Family Fund was set up after the murder of John Hunt’s wife and two daughters. It aims to support causes that help young women.
December Gold Cup Trends (15 winners from 206 runners)
All fifteen winners had raced between 16 and 45 days beforehand. Thirteen of them had run between 21 and 30 days previously.
All 15 winners were returned 16/1 or shorter. Those at 18/1 or bigger are 0 from 65, with just five places. Favourites (clear or joint) are 1 from 17, with an A/E= 0.3.
Fourteen of the last fifteen winners met the following criteria:
10 of the last 15 ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November Meeting (10 winners from 72 runners, +26.5, 24 places).
13 of the last 15 ran at Cheltenham or Ascot last time.
Trends Verdict
You want horses who tick these boxes:
Recent form in their last three runs.
Ran between 16 and 45 days ago.
Ran over a distance between 2m3f to 2m5f on their last start.
Contenders
Only 12 remain after Monday’s final confirmations. Last year we had 11 runners, and in 2017 only ten went to post. We could easily dip below double digits this year.
Here are the main contenders.
Jagwar heads the ante-post market. The 6-year-old is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham, including a Festival Plate win. He missed the Paddy Power Gold Cup because of the softening ground. Will ground conditions be in his favour on Saturday?
Next in the betting is Hoe Joly Smoke, who finished third in the Paddy Power last month. He runs off the same mark and ticks the key trends.
Vincenzo, runner-up in that same race, finished 2½ lengths ahead of Hoe Joly Smoke. He also matches the main trends and looks a solid player.
Colonel Harry won last month’s Grand Sefton over the National fences and is only 4lb higher. I’d have him much shorter than his current 10/1 and think he should be vying for favouritism.
Imperial Saint needs to bounce back from a poor return at Aintree, but he ran well to finish third over this C&D in January. He’s one to consider if he can step forward from last time.
Paul Nicholls relies on Il Ridoto, last year’s Paddy Power winner. He’s dropped back to his last winning mark but disappointed in this year’s renewal on soft ground. He wouldn’t want conditions any worse than good to soft.
Martator shaped like he needed further when a strong finishing second over 2m1f at Ascot. He’s only 1lb above his last winning mark, but testing ground would stretch him up in trip. Yard won this last year.
Irish Challengers
Kim Roque got a proper look at Cheltenham when finishing a 4-length second in last month’s Novices' Limited Handicap Chase over 2m4f. That was his first run for Joseph O’Brien, and the French chase winner looks on a workable mark albeit he’d be 3lb out of the handicap if top weight Ga Law is declared on Thursday.
Will The Wise, went into my tracker after finishing 4th of 19 in the Troytown Handicap Chase over 3m. He’s fairly treated, but I had hoped to see him over further rather than back at this trip.
Verdict:
Vincenzo can emerge best of those who ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. If the rain stays away, Il Ridoto is handicapped to run a big race. Martator is interesting back up in trip, although softer ground would test his stamina. Colonel Harry looked overpriced at 10/1 on Monday and should be shorter in the betting. Imperial Saint might simply have needed the run at Aintree, a track where he’s a three-time winner, and he comes into the mix if that was the case. Kim Roque looks the pick of the Irish challengers, and this has likely been the target. If the weights rise, he’d be on a very workable mark.
Wednesday Racing
Only one race on a thin Wednesday card caught my eye a ‘dreaded’ handicap chase at 2:45 Leicester. William Cody, a C&D winner, stepped forward from his seasonal return when finishing runner-up at Catterick 19 days ago. He’s now 1lb below his last winning mark and the yard is among the winners.
Moonshine Man shaped with plenty of promise when second on his chase debut at Sedgefield on quick ground. He then pulled up on heavy going at Bangor, so connections will be hoping the rain stays away and we get genuine good ground.
Moonshine Man would be interesting on a sound surface, but I’m siding with previous C&D winner William Cody. He runs for an in-form trainer who is 3 from 7 with her handicap chasers at Leicester over the past five years.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John