Hi all,
Inside today’s column, I have several horses who ran on Saturday and are worth keeping onside in the coming weeks. Plus, with the Cheltenham Festival just a week away, it’s time to start the countdown. Each day this week—and next Monday—I’ll be diving into some key Cheltenham trends.
Brighterdaysahead Set for Champion Hurdle Test
There was good and bad news for punters on Monday.
The good news for the sport is that Gordon Elliott confirmed Brighterdaysahead will take on Constitution Hill in the Unibet Champion Hurdle rather than going for the Mares’ Hurdle. However, it was bad news for those who backed her for the Mares’ race.
Monday also bought bad news for backers of Windbeneathmywings, who is out of the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. An easy winner at Ascot in December, the David Pipe-trained five-year-old was the leading home-trained contender for the race.
Cheltenham Festival 2025 – My Approach
I don’t have a big ante-post portfolio and I’m surprised I’ve only made six selections. That said, I’m excited for this year’s Cheltenham Festival. My race picks are coming together nicely!
How am I tackling this year’s Festival? Here’s my plan:
🔹Festival Bankroll – I set aside £500 for the four days. Festivals are different from day-to-day betting, and I approach them accordingly.
🔹Balancing Value & Winners – I always look for value, but at Cheltenham, finding winners is just as important, if only from a psychological perspective.
🔹Festival Form Matters – Having seen Cracking Rhapsody and Moroder win Saturday’s big handicaps for the second time, I’ll be focusing on horses with proven Festival Form. Last year, eight winners had already won or placed in the same race before. I’ll also be paying close attention to trainers with strong records in specific races.
🔹Using Trends (But Not Blindly) – Trends can divide opinion—some punters swear by them, others ignore them. So far in 2025, they’ve worked well, so I’ll be using them while keeping an open mind.
Trainers and First-Time Headgear
I know an old-school pro punter who built his betting strategy around two key angles—horses wearing first-time headgear and those making their handicap debut.
His approach was simple: if a race didn’t have at least one horse wearing first-time headgear or making a handicap debut, he moved on. But when he found one, he’d dig deeper to assess its ability and form. It wasn’t a strategy for everyone, but it gave him his ‘edge.’
I can’t say I follow his method, but I do take notice when first-time headgear is applied—especially in big races. I still remember being at Cheltenham with him when we backed Jezki, who won the 2014 Champion Hurdle in a first-time hood.
With the Cheltenham Festival fast approaching, I decided to dig into the data and see how first-time headgear has performed at the meeting.
First-Time Headgear at the Cheltenham Festival (Last 10 Years)
📊 12 winners have worn first-time headgear at the Cheltenham Festival over the past decade.
However, with an A/E (Actual vs. Expected) of 0.75, these horses have generally been poor value overall.
That said, when we break it down by trainer, an interesting trend emerges.
Key Trainers for First-Time Headgear at the Festival
✅ Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott & Emmett Mullins account for six of the 12 winners. If any of these trainers apply headgear for the first time this year, it’s worth noting.
On the flip side, two major trainers have poor records with first-time headgear at the Festival:
❌ Willie Mullins – 1 winner from 26 runners (-22), 5 places.
❌ Nicky Henderson – 0 winners from 20 runners (-20), 3 places.
Mullins’ sole success came last year when Gaelic Warrior won the Arkle in a first-time hood.
Breakdown by Headgear
It’s small sample sizes, but it’s clear that not all trainers use first-time headgear effectively at the Festival. If Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott, Emmett Mullins or Joseph O’Brien apply it to one of their runners this year, I’ll be paying close attention.
👉 Get My Cheltenham Pass – All my Cheltenham Festival race previews and picks for just £19.99 here.
More Cheltenham Festival Stats to come tomorrow!
Future Winners
Several horses caught the eye on Saturday and look worth following in the coming weeks.
Alnilam – Progressive and Tough
A strong second in the Morebattle Hurdle, Alnilam stuck to his task well despite racing up with a strong pace throughout. He’s finished first or second in all four starts this season and remains on the upgrade. Possible next targets include the County Hurdle at Cheltenham or the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April.
Petrol Head – One for Good Ground
Also, in the Morebattle Hurdle, Petrol Head shaped well and might have just needed this run on stable debut. He’ll be much more effective on quicker conditions, making him one to watch for the Scottish Champion Hurdle or even the Galway Hurdle this summer. His yard won the first named contest in 2021.
Favour And Fortune – Worth Another Chance
Disappointed in the Morebattle, but he didn’t handle the sharp Kelso track, and his yard was on a 13 runner, 17-day losing run at the time. Still has plenty of potential when back on a more galloping track.
Vincenzo – Stamina Opens New Doors
Ran a big race in Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup, just unable to resist Booster Bob’s late surge. Proved his stamina for 2m 4f, which gives his connections more options. With a further rise in the weights likely, he should still be competitive.
Hymac (Harry Fry) – Needs a Marathon Trip
A consistent performer over fences, finishing in the first three on all three chase starts this season. He was third in the Grimthorpe Chase, unable to match Moroder’s pace, but he stayed on well. He’s already won a 3m 4f handicap chase at Cheltenham and remains unexposed over extreme distances. He’s got an entry in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Personally, I would prefer to see him in a long-distance handicap chase next.
In Wednesday's column, I’ll dive into Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown and bring you more key Cheltenham Festival stats.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John
john if there is anyone i caan trust its you ive been a topster myself very successfull good luck to the triers in the game but you cant beat the tied and tested thanks john now come and join us mmel scott (itsbeat)
Hi There,
Read a couple of your articles in relation to Cheltenham that were very informative.
Wee gripe however in relation to headgear, Ferny Hollow wore a hood when winning bumper in 2020, so Mullins should be 2 from 26, still poor though. Talk of Kopek wearing one for first time in Supreme too, won’t put me off!
Regards
Hugh
Forget my earlier post, first time headgear! Sure he wore a hood previously.
Too much Cheltenham reading is affecting my thinking! lol
Apologies
Hugh