Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’ve looked at the best of the ITV action from Cheltenham’s November Meeting. First though a simple method to shortlist contenders for the better-quality handicap hurdles.
Cut Through the Noise: A Smarter Way to Tackle Handicap Hurdles
Handicap hurdles can look like a minefield – plenty of runners, different form lines, and endless stats. But sometimes the best angles are the simplest. Here’s a quick, no-nonsense method to help you narrow the field and find runners that are fit, in form, and proven where it matters.
It’s a simple one. Look for the three best placings last time out among horses that have run within the last 28 days. Then, make sure they’re either a course or distance winner. That instantly cuts down the number you’re focusing on.
I’m not too strict about the “days since run” rule. If a horse ticks the other boxes but last ran 33 or 35 days ago, I’m happy to keep it on the shortlist.
1. Focus on recent runs
Horses that have run in the last 28 days are usually sharper and race fit. They’ve had a recent run and are ready to go again. Be flexible — if one ran a few days outside that window and otherwise qualifies, don’t rule it out.
2. Look for good recent placings
A solid finishing position tells you a horse is in form. You don’t need to overthink it — top three last time out is a simple, reliable filter. It cuts out those who ran without showing anything.
3. Course or distance winners
Proven ability under similar conditions counts for plenty. Horses that have already won at the course or over the distance know what’s required. At certain tracks like Cheltenham or Haydock, that experience can make all the difference.
Summary
This approach won’t find every winner, but it consistently highlights runners who are fit, in form, and well suited to conditions. It’s a quick, practical way to get say 14 runners down to a manageable shortlist of three or four.
I don’t have the time over the next few days, but next week I’ll look at how to build on this by adding a few class and ratings filters to sharpen the edge.
There are two handicap hurdles on this afternoon’s Cheltenham card so you can try it out for yourselves.
Cheltenham November Meeting – Countryside Day
The first big jumps meeting of the season gets underway at Cheltenham today. The rain has arrived at the right time, so we should see good-sized fields and competitive racing. There’s plenty to like, and I’m fully pumped for the three days – hopefully you are too.
I’ve put in plenty of study for the meeting, and if you want my final selections, you can get them here.
It was good ground at Cheltenham on Thursday, but forecasters are predicting 11mm of rain Thursday night and 25mm on Friday. Forecasts aren’t always accurate, so it’s best to keep an open mind until conditions are confirmed. That said, 35mm on watered ground and we could be looking at heavy ground on Saturday.
The final declarations for Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup card came out on Thursday morning. Thankfully, field sizes have held up well despite the weather.
Anyway, onto Friday’s racing. Here’s my look at the four ITV races from Cheltenham.
1:45 – Unibet Middle Distance Veterans' Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m4f
Fugitif might only have one win at Cheltenham, but he’s placed on six of his 11 starts and his five best RPRs have all come here. He’s 6lb below his last winning mark and runs in veteran company for the first time. If he’s fit and ready, he’ll go close.
Gunsight Ridge must prove he stays this far but has shaped like he could on a going day. He goes well fresh, was set to go close when falling at the last here (2m) 12 months ago and enjoys some ease in the ground.
Eldorado Allen may prefer three miles, but he’s well treated and usually goes well first time out. The yard is in form, and he should be thereabouts.
Irish raider Dreal Deal has been running well through the summer since joining Philp Rothwell and was only beaten by the improving Coming Up Easy on his latest start over fences. He’s ground versatile and capable of getting in the mix.
2:20 – Sun's ‘Save Our Bets’ Novices’ Chase (Listed) – 3m1f
In races like this, it often pays to focus on the top of the market.
Wade Out, who needed every yard of 2m4f when winning on chase debut at Worcester 23 days ago. Already a better chaser than hurdler. He’s open to improvement for the step up to three miles and has won on soft ground.
Leave Of Absence made it 2 from 4 over fences with a C&D novice chase success last month. He jumped well that day, and with the yard flying, must be respected – though he’s unproven on ground softer than good to soft.
Double Powerful, progressive over hurdles last season, made a pleasing chase debut when a 2 ½ lengths 3rd of 14 here (2m4f) last month. The step up to three miles should suit, and he’s open to progress over fences. Yard has gone 29 runners and 17 days since its last winner which is a slight concern.
Isaac Des Obeaux didn’t look a natural chaser on four starts last season but returns from wind surgery. Paul Nicholls has won four of the last ten renewals, so market confidence would be telling.
2:55 – Shloer Chase (Grade 2) – 2m
The day’s feature sees Jonbon a short price to land his third straight Shloer Chase. He’s clearly the form pick.
L’Eau Du Sud, won the Grade 2 novice chase over C&D at this meeting last year and finished a 1 ½ lengths fourth in the Arkle at the Festival. He receives 3lb from Jonbon but must improve again now in open company.
Libberty Hunter was still travelling well when falling three out in the Champion Chase. The early 16/1 has long gone, but this remains a good opportunity with the rain arriving. Brookie is just 2lb behind him on ratings and could sneak into the frame at big odds.
3:30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m5f
Heads Up, runner-up in the Champion Bumper here in March, made a winning start over hurdles (2m) at Listowel. He should stay this trip, and despite softer ground posing a small question regarding stamina, he’s the one to beat.
No Drama This End, a Warwick bumper winner on debut for Paul Nicholls, finished nine lengths behind Heads Up in the Champion Bumper. He’s thrown in the deep end for his hurdles debut, which looks a positive sign from his trainer.
Friday Selection – Cheltenham
Double Powerful – 2:20
He shaped well when 3rd of 14 on chase debut here over 2m4f, finishing just 2½ lengths behind the winner in a strong race. The step up to three miles should bring further improvement, and he was a progressive hurdler last season. His jumping looked assured first time over fences, and with more to come, he looks overpriced compared to the front two in the betting. The only negative is the trainer’s recent quiet spell but he can hopefully overcome that.
Not sure yet whether there will be a Saturday column. If there is, I’ll cover the best of Paddy Power Gold Cup Day. If not, I’ll be here on Sunday.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John