Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at Cheltenham's November Meeting that gets underway on Friday. Plus, there’s look at this afternoon's feature race. I fancy one to beat the odds on favourite but she probably needs the rain to stay away.
Cheltenham November Meeting Stats
On the eve of Cheltenham’s three day November Meeting, I thought I should dig into some meeting stats.
I have looked at the stats from 2017 and which contain 111 winners from 1102 runners.
Odds SP: 100/30 & lower
A solid enough set of results for those at the front end of the betting with 46 winners from 142 runners 32% -3.8 75 placed 53%.
Looking at the trainers:
If the money is down for a Dan Skelton runner at 100/30 and less, they don’t often leave the money behind. Compare those figures with his runners 100/30 and bigger at the meeting – 1 winner from 39 runners -27, 6 placed. His sole winner was West Cork (11/1) in the 2021 Greatwood Hurdle.
In contrast Nicky Henderson’s ‘shorties’ 100/30 & shorter are performing well below market expectations. That's a slight concern as I fancy one of his on Friday.
Runs At The Track: 1+
Previous experience of racing at Cheltenham is no negative as they have produced 70 winners from 563 runners -36.95, 158 placed.
Breaking down those numbers by race type makes for interesting reading.
Runners in the NH Flat races with previous run at the track are definitely worth more than a second look. Sadly I don't think any of the entries have run at the track before.☹️
Those horses with 2+ wins at Cheltenham are 14 wins from 74 runners 19% +10.94, 29 placed.
Trainers:
Here are the winning most trainers at the meeting since 2017.
Plenty of winners for Paul Nicholls there but they don’t offer punters much in the way of value.
On the negative side this meeting hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Nicky Henderson and his A/E is well below what you might expect.
The standout trainer is Kerry Lee she has the same number of winners as Nicky Henderson but from 37 less runners. I notice that Kerry has only got one horse entered for this year’s meeting and its Nemean Lion in Sunday’s Greatwood Hurdle. Incidentally Nemean Lion was one of my recent eyecatchers after his win the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las last month. Provided there’s soft in the going description then he’ll be one of my selections for the race.
Venetia Time
Oxygen’s success at Lingfield on Tuesday means Venetia Williams is 7 winners from 13 runners, 8 placed with her handicap chasers in November. The wet weather and with it soft ground means it really is Venetia time.
Venetia has already had two more winners this November than she had 12 months ago when she had 5 winners from 29 runners -13.5, 10 placed and we’re only halfway through the month.
Her good run will come to an end before too long. But for now, you must keep the Venetia Williams handicap chasers on side out and she’s got plenty of entries between now and Sunday. 😊
Thursday Preview
The Listed Mares' Chase (2:50) at Market Rasen is the day’s feature. As is normally the case with these sorts of races it’s attracted a small field.
Second season chaser Galia Des Liteaux holds a Betfair Chase entry which looks fanciful but she’s the highest rated of the five mares and this looks a good opportunity for her on seasonal return. The good to soft ground would be a bit of a concern as her best form has come on much deeper ground.
Nicky Henderson saddled Fantastic Lady to win this corresponding race 12 months ago and he’s got a Tweed Skirt running for him. The 6-year-old won her first two starts over fences last season and goes well on good/good to soft ground. She should be ready to roll first time up and must be respected.
Found On returned from a 246 day layoff to make it 2 from 2 here at the end of September. Capable of a bold show but needs a sound surface (6 wins from 9 starts on good) to win.
Verdict: Galia Des Liteaux’s class might just get her home on ground that might be on the quick side. Tweed Skirt hails from last year’s winning yard and must be respected on ground that will suit. Found On needs the rain to stay and the drier the ground the better her chance. Yard could do with a winner but she’s the play on suitable underfoot conditions.
Thursday Selection:
Market Rasen
2:50 – Found On – 3/1 @ Bet365.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John