Good morning all,
My thoughts on what Saturday meant in terms of the Festival are on the main piece, along with a selection from Southwell.
First off, an apology for some utterly awful selections Saturday. I’d played on the ground being no worse than good to soft and it was anything but, with the winning times suggest very slow ground indeed. That was backed up by the visual impression too.
What’s a slight concern for me, with the Festival in mind, is how slow the ground is actually drying up this year. Normally, a week without rain at Cheltenham is enough to dry it out, but it was clear from Saturday how high the water table is at present. Normally we start off on good to soft, but if we get a rainy February, I’d be doubtful of that happening.
Let’s start with the Cotswold. I said beforehand we’d learn something about Santini, and what we learnt is that he’s a good horse with a chance of winning a Gold Cup, no more and no less than that. There were parts of Saturday’s Cotswold when he looked slow, and there were parts where he looked very good. His jumping was okay, but not spectacular, and I thought he would have to jump a bit better if he’s to be victorious in the big one come March.
Nigel makes the argument that Bristol De Mai might have won but for a bad mistake three out, and he has a point, to an extent, as I thought his horse was going slightly better at the time. But we know where we are with BDM, whereas Santini may well have a bit more to come (and from paddock inspection, that may well have been the case, I was told). Do I want to back Santini for the Gold Cup? No. Can he win? Yes.
The pair were a mile clear of Top Ville Ben, who may not have been totally suited by hold up tactics, and De Rasher Counter. The latter’s defeat here means that not one of the first 10 home in the Ladbroke Trophy has won since, or even hit the frame – the winners from the race, namely Ok Corral, Yala Enki and Regal Encore, all finished well beaten that day, and it’s not hard to think the form of the race isn’t great this year.
Paisley Park was described by the excellent Dan Briden (@aidenldrebin on Twitter) as “the new Inglis Drever” after his win in the Cleeve, and I can think of no better way of describing him. He hits his flat spot everytime, looks in a bit of trouble for about 100yds, then once that staying gear kicks in, looks unbeatable. You can crab the form if you so wish, with the 140-rated Lisnagar Oscar not far away in third, but it’s churlish to do so as he’s beaten everything that’s been put in front of him, and probably will do again come March.
Lisnagar Oscar has again run at cracker at Cheltenham, and both he and Tobefair, running on for fourth in a race not run to suit him, are both worth consideration in “without the favourite” markets come March. It might be the only way we can play the race and get any value. More later in the week, when I cover the Stayers in a write-up.
I was also really taken with Harry Senior’s win in the Ballymore trial, but unsurprisingly, given he looked all about stamina, it’ll be the Albert Bartlett for him. King Roland may have travelled like the best horse in the race and I was disappointed that he couldn’t get away from them once hitting the front, but Harry Senior, once he got to him, he powered away for a ready win. I like his chance in the AB, and he’s top of my shortlist for the race at present.
Ruthless Article (a good looker in the paddock, I’m informed) travelled fine to three out but then couldn’t pick up in the ground. He’s a lot better than this, which he’ll prove once he gets good ground.
Lingfield's already bitten the dust and although Newcastle goes ahead, there's not much there to get excited about. The 5.25 at Southwell has plenty of pace on, with at least three front runners as far as I can see, and that might suit Le Manege Enchante, who is in good form on the surface and has a decent draw in stall 4 to work from. Expect to see Luke Morris come with a late run.
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.