Chepstow Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece, I’m recapping the best of the Boxing Day action at Kempton and previewing the four ITV races at Chepstow.

Boxing Day Recap

The fog spoilt racing across Britain and Ireland, but thankfully, Kempton managed to escape unscathed.

Constitution Hill made a winning return in the Christmas Hurdle, delivering a commanding performance. Lossiemouth, his big rival, drifted in the market and never looked comfortable in the race. If Nicky Henderson keeps Constitution Hill sound, he remains the one to beat in the Champion Hurdle. However, vulnerabilities remain but can any rival step up?

The King George VI Chase delivered a thrilling contest. Il Est Francais looked set to win after dictating the pace, but a mistake at the last handed the race to Banbridge. The winner proved his stamina over 3m in style. Il Est Francais might not have held on even without the mistake, but his bold jumping made the race a great watch.

The Jukebox Man confirmed himself Britain’s best staying novice chaser in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. His jumping was slicker than on debut, and Kempton’s right-handed track suited him fine. The Brown Advisory at Cheltenham looks his next target where he’ll face the best of the Irish.

It was a good day at Kempton for those backing horses near the front of the betting with Banbridge (7/1) being the biggest priced winner.

For me, though, the highlight was The Big Westerner’s win in the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Limerick. She was my Boxing Day nap for Victor Value subscribers, and her impressive performance made it my most satisfying result of the day. If you have been following my future winners you will have been on to.

Chepstow

ITV covers four live races from Chepstow on Coral Welsh Grand National Day. Let’s break them down:

1:05 – Coral Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f

Paint The Dream: Caught the eye on his Newbury return but I’m hoping he has other targets in mind.

Fidelio Vallis: Nicely weighted off just 2lb higher than his win at Musselburgh last January. Ran poorly on return but comes here instead of Musselburgh race and could bounce back. Not sure about the jockey though.

Lowry’s Bar: Progressive chaser who built on a promising debut to win at Exeter last time. He’ll be popular, and rightly so.

Can You Call: Rarely wins but is edging down the handicap. His best effort over C&D last season puts him in the mix and he should like the soft ground.

1:40 – Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m

This looks a match between Nietzsche Has, runner-up in a French Grade 1 last month, and the progressive mare Opec. I’ll sit this one out, but the French challenger’s class could prevail.

2:10 – Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 7 ½ f

Madaket: Encouraging 3rd at Newbury last month. Likes soft ground and can win a handicap hurdle of his present mark.

Tune In A Box: Solid 4th in a strong Cheltenham handicap last time. Back up in trip, he has strong claims. Yard form a slight concern though.

Dans Le Vent: At 12, he’s no spring chicken, but his 6th at Haydock hinted there’s still life in him. A return to this trip makes him an attractive contender off a good mark.

2:50 – Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 6 ½ f

Monbeg Genius: The favourite, unbeaten in three runs at Chepstow. Yet to try this trip but ticks the trends boxes I identified in the race preview.  I wouldn’t put you off if you like him.

Here are the four trends qualifiers:

Jubilee Express: Returns after 282 days for a trainer who excels with staying chasers fresh. A compelling case can be made if ready to go.

Iwilldoit: The 2022 winner runs off the same mark as then and has gone well fresh before. His 7lb claimer boosts his chances further.

Atlanta Brave: Handicapped to be competitive but still a maiden over fences. Get’s the first time cheekpieces and given the yards record in the race shouldn’t be underestimated.

Stuzzikini: Won the Troytown last time and could improve further for this trip. Better ground suits though.

Verdict: It’s a wide-open renewal, and I like the chances of Jubilee Express if fit, with stablemate Iwilldoit a strong contender. I’ve gone against the trends. Will I regret it?

Friday’s racing leans more towards handicaps, which suits me perfectly. I’ve got several strong fancies lined up for the day, including a couple of big-priced selections in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown.

If you’d like access to them, you can find them here.

Good luck with your Friday bets!

John