Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece, I’m reflecting on the weekend action and looking ahead to the Christmas racing.
Get Ready for the Festive Feast
Horse racing has entered a three-day Christmas break, giving punters a chance to recharge. Afterward, we’re treated to a feast of top-class action across Britain and Ireland, including 12 Grade 1 races and iconic handicaps like the Coral Welsh Grand National.
Boxing Day at Kempton features the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase, a race steeped in history with past winners like Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid, and Kauto Star. The card also includes the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle, where Constitution Hill could face Lossiemouth in what promises to be a thrilling contest.
In Ireland, Boxing Day or St. Stephen’s Day—ushers in four days of festive racing at Leopardstown and Limerick.
On Friday, December 27, Chepstow hosts the Coral Welsh Grand National, while Kempton features the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, potentially showcasing Ballyburn, Sir Gino, and Rubaud. The big race action continues Saturday at Newbury with the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle.
The high-class racing ends on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham, which will draw its largest crowd outside the Festival.
With Boxing Day declarations due on Monday, I’ll be diving into form analysis for Victor Value subscribers. If you’d like my Christmas & New Year picks, you can get them here.
Ascot Recap
Friday
The Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase headlined but lacked depth and quality, featuring four handicappers in a weak contest.
I opposed favourite Johnnywho, as his pedigree suggested he needed 3m+. Dropped in trip, he struggled with the pace, his jumping suffered, and he plugged on into third. He remains one to watch over 3m+ but can’t be backed until then.
Personal Ambition dictated the pace and seemed poised for victory before a costly mistake at the last. That opened the door for Mark of Gold, who secured a likely fortuitous win on his chase debut at 9/1, much to the delight of Victor Value subscribers.
The highlight of the day was Windbeneathmywings win in the Listed bumper. Setting a strong standard, he led from the start under Jack Tudor and cruised to an emphatic 14-length victory.
On paper the race looked full of promise, but its true quality will become clear in the months ahead. How the winner measures up to the best of the Irish remains to be seen, but for now, he’s Britain’s standout bumper horse and a genuine Cheltenham Champion Bumper contender.
I had confidently tipped him to subscribers at 11/2, making my first bumper bet of the season a winning one.
Saturday
Drama in the First
The Graduation Chase began with drama as short-priced favourite Iroko came down at the first. That left Jungle Boogie to control the pace, and despite jumping markedly left at times, his class shone through against his two remaining rivals. Talented but fragile, it remains to be seen if Henry de Bromhead can keep the 10-year-old sound. This might well prove to be his big day in the sun.
Another Long Walk for Crambo
Strong Leader headed the market for the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, but my pick of the favourite over last year’s winner, Crambo, proved a costly error. Crambo, my original fancy from Thursday’s race preview, delivered a gutsy victory over Hiddenvalley Lake.
Beauport set the pace and led until the last, only to be caught by the winner and runner-up on the run-in. It was a bold effort from the front-runner.
Crambo, now unbeaten in four seasonal reappearances, showed his fighting spirit to hold off a late challenge by Hiddenvalley Lake. Meanwhile, Strong Leader was disappointing, suggesting something was amiss with the favourite.
It was one of those races where over analysis got the better of me. The more I looked, the more I talked myself out of Crambo—proof that sometimes, you just need to trust your gut in this game.
Confident Ride Secures Back-to-Back Howden Silver Cups for Victtorino
The Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase saw a strong gallop with The Changing Man, Trelawne, and Threeunderthrufive pushing the pace. This set things up perfectly for last year’s winner, Victtorino, who received a confident, well-judged ride from Charlie Deutsch. The jockey didn’t rush, allowing the winner to settle into the race before making his move.
The Changing Man, still leading at the last, couldn’t hold off the winner but it was another strong performance from The Changing Man, who’s now finished second in two big handicap chases and is 0-8 over fences
Despite some late betting support for French challenger Heloy Delabarriere, the gamble didn’t pay off. Heloy Delabarriere never seemed comfortable with the pace and weakened out of contention.
One to take out of the race could be Hartur d’Arc. The Irish challenger’s jumping improved as the contest unfolded, but a mistake at the 16th fence led to him unseating his rider. It was too early in the race to be certain of his chances, but if he had stayed upright, he looked capable of fighting for the places. There should be other opportunities for the promising 7-year-old in the future.
Ladbrokes Christmas Cracker
The Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle delivered a fast and furious pace, which played perfectly into the hands of Fiercely Proud, who narrowly denied the progressive Kabral Du Mathan in a thrilling finish. Known for being keen, the winner benefitted from the strong gallop, settling better than has been the case. Two out, Kabral Du Mathan appeared poised to challenge, and with a cleaner jump there, he might have preserved his unbeaten record. However, Fiercely Proud dug deep on the run-in to secure a thrilling victory by a short head.
Be Aware was still in contention at the second-last but a mistake saw him fade, and he had to settle for a distant third after Secret Squirrel fell at the last.
Secret Squirrel, who had been prominent throughout, looked set for third when his race ended with a heavy fall. If his confidence remains intact, he’s one to watch in future races.
Further back, Favour And Fortune stayed on for sixth, suggesting he needed his reappearance. He could be a force in handicap hurdles in the spring. Race favourite Dysart Enos (100/30) was never travelling and trailed home a well-beaten seventh.
Fiercely Proud, a qualifier from Wednesday’s trends preview, delivered the expected result, though with seven of the 13 runners meeting the criteria, it was far from a surprise.
I went into Saturday full of confidence after an excellent Friday, but that optimism quickly faded as the day unravelled. It was a tough watch made worse by Crambo's victory in the Long Walk.
I’m off for the next two days so I’ll take this chance to wish you and yours a very Happy and peaceful Christmas.
See you on Boxing Day.
John