Christmas Stats

Hi all,

No racing until Boxing Day but inside Friday's column I have some Christmas stats to share with you.

The days between Boxing Day and New Year’s Day are for me punting wise the busiest of the racing calendar. I normally have plenty of bets and I don’t see that changing this year.

There is so much good racing you can get a bit overwhelmed but if you concentrate on a few races each day then you can get through it. For example, on Boxing Day there are eleven meeting across Britain & Ireland. Most of the races I won’t even give a cursory glance to. Instead, I have pinpointed eleven races that I might have a bet in. However, come the day that will be down to five or six.

Everyone has their own races they like to have a go at. For me it’s higher class races mainly but not exclusively handicaps. Others may focus on 3m + handicap chases. Whatever you choice, stick with it. Don’t be tempted into looking at other races and taking a scattergun approach to your Christmas betting.

William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase – Wetherby

I’m not going anywhere for Christmas Day this year which means I’m off to Wetherby on Boxing Day.  

The feature race on the card is the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (1:35) It’s live on ITV to so hopefully the race won’t be lost amidst all the Grade 1 action at Kempton. I say that because I think this year’s renewal could be the best in many years.

I hadn’t intended to look at the race trends. However, taking a very cursory look at the trends which contain 11 winners from 100 runners 32 placed.

Ten of the last eleven winners of the race where aged seven or eight.

All ten winners had also run 12 times or less over fences.

Twenty five were left in the race at the final confirmation stage. They include the likes of Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian and Chantry House. We have, Into Overdrive and Happygolucky second and third to L'Homme Presse in the Rehearsal Chase. Last year’s winner Good Boy Bobby is among the entries as is Empire Steel who was travelling best of all when coming down four out 12 months ago. Add in Coral Gold Cup runner-up Remastered. Shan Blue who had the 2021 Charlie Hall Chase over C&D at his mercy when falling three out. Recent Haydock winner Fontaine Collonges and her stablemate Fanion D'Estruval and you can see why we're in for a Christmas cracker of a race even if only half of them line-up on the day.

The Christmas Feast Continues….

The quality action over the festive period doesn’t end with the Coral Welsh Grand National on Tuesday. Nope, the feast continues on Wednesday & Thursday. However, the focus now switches across the Irish Sea to Leopardstown where the Grade 1 Savills Chase (2.20) and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (1.45) are the Wednesday highlights. And on Thursday there are two Grade 1’s the Matheson Hurdle (2.20) and the Neville Hotels Novice Chase (1.45).

I know Irish Racing isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but given the quality of action on offer at Leopardstown next week. Plus, the fact that ITV will be covering the action live on Wednesday and Thursday it will be worth tuning in to what should be an informative meeting.

Anyway, without further ado: Here are those Christmas stats I promised you.

Christmas Trainers

Trainer’s are ‘creatures of habit’. They target certain tracks and certain races. You’ll be pleasantly surprised how many good- priced winners can be found by looking at trainers who have won previously won the race in question.

Here are a several examples:

David Pipe is 2-3 with his runners in Market Rasen’s Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day. He has several entries in this years race including last years winner Sidi Ismael.

Since 2008 Nicky Henderson has had 3 winners from 16 runners +6 7 placed in the 2m 4 ½ f novices limited handicap chase at Kempton on Boxing Day (3:05).

If you dig a bit deeper, you’ll find that he’s 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +16 5 placed with his runners that were aged five or six and hadn’t won one of their last three starts. He has three entries in this year’s race. Two of them were last out winners but the third Balco Coastal qualifies on both trends.

Now we’re dealing with small samples so it could be just noise, but it will be interesting to see who Nicky does run in this year’s race.

Dan Skelton has a good record in Wetherby’s Castleford Handicap Chase run on December 27^th.  Since 2016 he’s had 3 winners from 6 runners 50% + 9.25 4 placed 67%. He got just one entry in this year’s race and it’s Eclair D'Ainay who won the race 12 months ago.

There are plenty of other examples I could have used but I don’t have the time to look at any more today.

Kempton Trainers:

Here are a group of trainers whose runners could be worth noting at Kempton’s two day Christmas Festival.

Nicky Henderson loves to have runners at this meeting and is the winning most trainer since 2016. And with Constitutional Hill running in the Christmas Hurdle its pretty certain he will add to his haul of winners.

Digging deeper into his results:

An impressive win strike rate with his hurdlers, albeit the profit is boosted courtesy of 25/1 winner. He was 3 from 5 +6.63 with his runners at last year’s meeting.

Wetherby Trainers:

Here are some trainers who have good records at Wetherby’s two Christmas Meeting (2016 to 2021).

Digging into the Dan Skelton numbers a bit more.

Whilst I wouldn’t put anyone off his hurdlers. It looks like his chasers are worthy of more consideration as would a runner in Tuesday's bumper.

Local trainer Philp Kirby’s record is also decent, and he seems to be coming into the Christmas period with his horses in good form. He looks to have plenty of entries at Wetherby and they will be worth more than a second look.

Here’s wishing you and yours a very Happy Christmas.

Boxing Day's column will be with you over the next few days so watch your inboxes for updates.

John