Classic Chase Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I begin my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action.  Today Warwick Classic Chase comes under the big race microscope.

You Can't Top That

It was an old school jumping performance from Raddon Top yesterday Jumping the Exeter fences soundly, he loved the deep ground to register a first success over the larger obstacles. He should be able to win again but probably had a hard race in victory.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1

It’s Warwick's biggest meeting of the year on Saturday, with the highlight being the Classic Chase (3.00). There are also two Grade 2s, the Hampton Court Novices' Chase (1.50) and Leamington Novices' Hurdle (2.25) on a seven race card.

The other principal meeting in Britain this weekend is at Kempton. The Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase (2.05), and the normally competitive Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2.40) are the highlights from there.

ITV4 will be covering the best of the action from Warwick and Kempton on a seven race programme.

Across the Irish Seas the highlight is Grade A Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (2.12) at Fairyhouse.  And the best of the action on Sunday is at Punchestown where the feature race is the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle.

Weather Watch:

Where would this column be without a weather watch segment? At Tuesday lunchtime the going at Warwick was being described as soft, good to soft in places. If the forecast for the rest of the week is correct there won’t be any good in that description by the start of racing on Saturday. Indeed, it could be borderline heavy if there is more rain than expected.

Down at Kempton the going is being described as soft. However, the forecast is suggesting between 15mm to 20mm between now and racing on Saturday. So, the ground could be close to heavy at the Sunbury track.

Classic Chase – Warwick

Looking at the race trends which contain 12 winners from 170 runners 37 placed. Personally, I don’t see to many significant trends. Mind you I’m not really a big race trends person these days.

Here are some of the more interesting positive & negatives trends:

Maximum Distance Won: 3m to 3m 3f – 11 winners from 94 runners +30.5 25 placed

Odds: 22/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 41 runners 4 placed. The sweet spot from an odds perspective looks to be those horses returned between 8/1 & 14/1 – 6 winners from 46 runners +30 16 placed.

Official Rating:  133 to 140 – 8 winners from 74 runners +4.5 22 placed

Class Move: Drop 1 or Same – 7 winners from 55 runners +31 17 placed

Runs Over Fences: 18+ – 0 winners from 41 runners 6 placed.

Trends Verdict:  For those looking to the trends to shortlist the race.  You'll probably do worse than look at horses with the following traits.

Twenty were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. The main bookies have priced up the race and the ante post favourite is Threeunderthrufive, The 8-year-old won the Grade 2 Hampton Novices' Chase on this card last year. He looks nicely treated on that Grade 2 performance here last year. However, he didn’t get beyond the first in the Coral Gold Cup last time. Trainer Paul Nicholls saddled the winner of this in 2015.

Notachance isn't the horse he once was but did win this race in 2021 and can race off 9lb lower now.

More Contenders:

Ben Pauling has two entries in Slipway & Nestor Park. The first named looked a progressive staying handicap chaser when winning the Southern National (3m 3 ½ f) at Fontwell on his seasonal return in November. The 8-year-old is 7lb higher than last time but is most definitely going the right way. Nestor Park seemed to prove his stamina for 3m 4f when a 3 length 3^rd of 9 at Haydock on seasonal reappearance.

Grumpy Charlie was back to form when beating 12 rivals in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury 14-days ago. He’s up 6lb and looked well suited to stamina test last time. If this race doesn’t come to quick, he’s a big player. Stablemate Tile Tapper seemed to prove his stamina for 3m when a 4 ¾ lengths 2nd of 14 to Remastered in at Kempton over Christmas. He’s jumping will need to be better than last time, but he’s got chance.

We haven’t seen Iwildoit since he won the 2021 Coral Welsh Grand National. A 7lb rise in the weights doesn’t look to prohibitive and he’s only had four starts over the larger obstacles.  A long absence to defy but he did win first time up last season.

Guetapan Collonges made it 3-6 over fences when winning here (3m 1 ½ f) on seasonal return. That was a career best by the 7-year-old and he looks worth a try over this longer trip. Should be fine on soft ground and could be capable of better.

Grand Mogul is another lightly raced over fences (1-4).  He shaped with promise on his stable/seasonal return when 11 length 3^rd of 10 to Farinet at Chepstow last month. If he can build on that promise, he wouldn’t be weighted out of this.

Verdict:

I want to take on likely favourite Threeunderthrufive. Notachance is well handicapped but seems long way from the form that won him this race two years ago.

Grumpy Charlie & Tile Tapper are both in the mix. The former is unexposed as a stayer and loves the mud. However, I would be concerned about the quick turnaround from Newbury. Tile Tapper also holds an entry in a 3 m handicap chase at Kempton so could go there.

The Ben Pauling pair of Slipway & Nestor Park are both high on the shortlist. As is last season’s Welsh Grand National winner Iwildoit and at big odds Grand Mogul.

Wednesday Racing

Leicester jumps card has been cancelled due to waterlogging that leaves just two all-weather fixtures at Lingfield this afternoon and Kempton this evening.

It won’t take long to do Wednesday’s preview as I don’t see too many solid betting opportunities. I also seem to have got one of those winter viruses that are going around so that I haven’t had any inclination to look at Wednesday’s action. I said at the start of the year that there would be day’s in 2023 without a selection and today’s is one of them. Albeit for a different reason.

I'm due to go to Catterick tomorrow for the North Yorkshire Grand National. However, the way I'm feeling at the moment makes that seem unlikely.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John