Hi all,
Fingers crossed Saturday’s racing beats the weather. Hopefully it does. If so, we have Warwick’s Classic Chase to enjoy, backed up by the Lanzarote Hurdle and the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton.
In today’s main piece, I look ahead to Saturday’s Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick.
Warwick: Classic Handicap Chase
It’s Warwick’s big day on Saturday, weather permitting. The Classic Handicap Chase (3m5f) is the clear highlight.
Sixteen remain after Monday’s final confirmations. The winner will collect £56,950.
A new BHA rule also comes into play. Horses cannot run if they are 15lb or more out of the weights. If top weight L’Homme Presse is declared, three horses will be expunged. That list includes last year’s winner, My Silver Lining.
For those interested in trends, a couple stand out.
All of the last 14 winners finished in the first five last time out or failed to complete.
Horses coming from Cheltenham or Haydock are 0 from 49, with just four placed (Exp/Wins 4.38).
Overall, I don’t think the trends are especially strong. However, that Cheltenham stat would put me off L’Homme Presse.
Contenders
Early ante-post support has come for Myretown (3/1). He fell in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. He’s trained by Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore. The yard won this race in 2014 with One For Arthur, who went on to land that season’s Grand National. Myretown looks well handicapped if none the worse for his Newbury mishap. He’s the one to beat. The nine-year-old also holds a Kelso entry on Sunday, which looks like insurance in case Warwick falls to the weather.
Next in the betting is the likeable Mr Vango (6/1). He was runner-up in the Becher Chase at Aintree. The longer trip is a plus. The question is the ground. He may only run if it turns genuinely soft.
Resplendent Grey (7/1) disappointed when 11th in the Coral Gold Cup. He’s better than that. However, he’s likely to be ridden from the rear, which is not ideal around Warwick.
Val Dancer (12/1) won last season’s Welsh Grand National. He followed up with a solid third in the Becher Chase. He will appreciate the return to a marathon trip and has clear claims.
Destroytheevidence (14/1) is shorter with William Hill at 10/1. That makes sense. He shaped as if needing further than 3m when a back-to-form runner-up at Ludlow last month. There could be more to come from the eight-year-old over extreme distances.
Is there a Silver Lining?
Finally, if L’Homme Presse does not run, My Silver Lining would not be 20/1 that’s available. The 2024 winner finished a good second to the improving Grand Geste in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. She is now 2lb lower than for last year’s win and is handicapped to go close again. If you like her, I will act now. You will get your money back if she is expunged.
My Silver Lining is 1 from 1 at Warwick and the record of such qualifiers in chase at the course is good.
Verdict:
Myretown is the right favourite. He looks the one horse in the line-up capable of being well ahead of his mark. My Silver Lining is handicapped to go close again. She may not run. However, if you like her, take the 20/1 now.
Of the rest, Mr Vango cannot be ruled out if rain arrives and eases the ground. Meanwhile, Val Dancer also makes appeal. He wasn’t declared for a repeat win in the Welsh Grand National and this has likely been the plan.
In tomorrow’s column I’ll be looking at Saturday’s Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John