Morning all,
Missing A Winner Always Hurts!
Well it’s a new month and there’s plenty of high class racing action to look forward to. There's the Coral Eclipse next weekend, followed by Newmarket's July Festival and the start of the Goodwood and Galway Festivals.
The weather looks set fair for this week and the hot and dry spell could last well into July. The field sizes on turf are already suffering due to the dry conditions, with talk of hose pipe bans in the offing racecourses may well be forced to go easy on the sprinkling.
June was a tough month on both the punting and tipping front. Up to 11 days ago, it looked as if I had no chance of making a profit in June but things turned around for the better in the last week or so.
So, that's now three months profit (+160) on the spin to advised prices for my subscribers, albeit last months was a small one. What will July bring?
Saturday was one of those days that could have been so much better but I committed the cardinal sin of identifying a horse for the tracker and then completely forgot to add it. The horse in question was the Tim Easterby trained Mukhayyam, who I highlighted in this column two weeks ago. I concluded my thoughts on the horse with this sentence.:
“You can draw a line under this run and he’s handicapped to win a race in the coming weeks”.
Hopefully, you didn’t forget to add him to your trackers!
A Tale of Two Derby’s
Over the Irish Sea it was Irish Derby Day at the Curragh on Saturday and this side of the water there was a very different Derby, the Northumberland Plate or “Pitman’s Derby” at Newcastle
Charlton Stayer Holds Off Rivals In Style
Last year’s very impressive Cesarewitch winner Withhold was having his first start of the season and the 5-year-old came into the race looking like a Group horse racing in handicap and so it proved.
The gelding was given an uncomplicated ride by jockey Robert Winston and he made all to win by a fairly comfortable 2 ¾ lengths at the finish.
He will now probably head for the Goodwood Cup to tackle Gold Cup hero Stradivarius. Given he’s only had the 11 career starts, I doubt his improvement has stopped yet and he will give the Gosden horse plenty to think about.
It’s Another O’Brien Irish Derby Winner
This years Irish Derby was a triumph for an O’Brien but it was Joseph, rather than Aidan, who took home the winners prize with the progressive Latrobe.
The son of Camelot had the necessary reserves of stamina to hold off Rostropovich and Saxon Warrior inside the final furlong. What now for the winner? The manner of his victory marked him down as a stayer, so you would expect the St Leger to be a target for the colt who likes quick ground. Long term, given his owner, the Melbourne Cup would seem a good race for this progressive 3-year-old.
English 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior who had his bubble burst at Epsom was given another try at 1m 4f. The colt looked to be in the perfect position to swoop three furlongs from home but the distance found him out and he was just outgalloped by the winner. He will surely now return to shorter.
Arguably the big disappointment of the race was Epsom Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee who never really looked comfortable in the race and probably found the going too quick for his liking.
Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) – 1m 2f
On Saturday it's Coral Eclipse Day at Sandown. A race which is the first opportunity for this years Classic Generation to take on the older horses. At this stage it's hard to know who or how many will turn up for this great race but that goes with the territory when it comes to ante-post betting.
Ante-post favourite for the race with most bookmakers is Roaring Lion who was 3rd in the Derby and should be suited by the drop back to 1m 2f.
Recent Royal Ascot winner Poet's Word could also take his place in the line-up. If he does he will be vying for favoritism on the day.
At the prices I do like the look of the Aidan O'Brien trained Happily. The 3-year-old was 3rd in the English 1000 Guineas, before occupying the same position behind Alpha Centauri in the Irish 1000 Guineas and then proving her stamina for an extended 1m 2f when 4th in the Prix Diane (French Oaks).
The filly is by no means a certain runner but if she does come over for the race she won't be anywhere near the 14/1 thats available with Bet365. At those sort of odds she looks a worth an each way play.
Coral Eclipse Selection: Happily (each way)
Notebook Horse:
I am not normally one to put up a last time out winner as a horse for the tracker but this week I am going to make an exception and go for the Ed Walker trained Royal Intervention.
The Exceed And Excel filly won the Listed juvenile race at Newmarket on Saturday in impressive style. The juvenile had made a promising racecourse debut when runner-up at Lingfield in May.
The benefit of that experience was not lost on her, as she stormed away from a field of 12 fillies to win by 4 ½ lengths. She’s related to plenty of winners, including three with RPR’s in excess of 109.
She’s a fast ground horse on pedigree and she relished Saturday's quick ground. On this sort of going she can hold her own in Group company this summer.
Monday Racing & Selection:
Last week’s Monday selection Conrad Hastings landed the each-way money. Fast ground means there are plenty of small field’s around the country today and a serious lack of solid betting opportunities.
Windsor
6:00 – Trainer Ralph Beckett has his horses going well and his runner Cross My Mind comes into the race with arguably the best form. She seemed to improve for the quicker ground when beaten just 1 ½ lengths at Salisbury on her last start 15 days ago. Up a further 3lb but she can hopefully break her maiden tag today at the expense of Sister Celine.
Selection: Cross My Mind
All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable weeks punting.
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