Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m previewing Saturday’s Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury.
Coral Gold Cup (Newbury)
All the last 11 winners of the race met the following criteria:
Those rated OR 156+ are 0 winners from 25 runners. (Monty’s Star is OR 159.)
Horses who hadn’t finished in the first two on any of their last three starts are 0 from 47.
Those with fewer than 13 or more than 24 career starts are 0 from 83. (The Changing Man has had 26 starts.)
Horses with two or more seasonal runs are 0 from 45. (Spanish Harlem, The Blizzard Of Oz, Gorgeous Tom and Doyen Quest fall into this group — although the first two are trained by Willie Mullins, who tends to break trends.)
Eight of the last 11 winners finished in the first three on their latest start.
The three that didn’t are Datsalrightgino (2023) who finished 8th on previous start but had won at Ayr in April that year.
Cloudy Glen (2021) who pulled up on his previous start but had finished runner-up in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that year.
The final winner not to have finished in the first three on their previous start was De Rasher Counter (2019) who had finished 6th over hurdles prior to winning the race and had won over fences in March of that year.
All three had either won two starts previously or in the case of Cloudy Glen finished runner-up in a big field handicap chase.
Trends Verdict
Solid trends overall, with the career starts angle looking the strongest.
Contenders
Twenty-seven were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation so lets hope we get more than last year’s 13 runners.
Resplendent Grey
Heads the ante post betting. He stayed on powerfully to win the Bet365 Gold Cup (3m4½f) at Sandown in April and returned with a good win in the Colin Parker (2m4f) at Carlisle 27 days ago. Back up to 3m2f is a plus and Newbury’s long straight will play to his strengths.
Myretown
Made it 3 from 5 over fences when winning the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He lacks a prep run, unlike the favourite, but this has been the target and there’s more to come from the 7yo over fences.
Katate Dori had a pipe-opener over hurdles at Aintree 21 days ago. Pulling up in the Ultima can be forgiven; better judged on his dominant Ladbrokes Trophy win at Kempton three starts back. Only five chase starts, so there is improvement to unlock.
The Doyen Chief (2 from 6 over fences) shaped well when 2¼ lengths second to Deep Cave at Bangor on return to action 17 days ago. Same mark here. Stamina for 3m2f needs proving but he shapes like he’ll stay. Trainer won this in 2015.
Victtorino is an Ascot specialist at three miles but proved he can run well elsewhere when third in last year’s race. He jumped poorly early that day but finished best of all. Needs a cleaner round of jumping to win but is well suited by good ground.
Annual Invictus probably needs good ground too. He won the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster and finished a neck second in the 2024 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. Off 581 days. If he retains ability, he’s well handicapped, but to win a race like this of such a long layoff would be a massive training performance.
The Changing Man fails the career runs trend and is just 1 from 13 over fences but was runner-up in four valuable handicaps last season, including the Ultima. Another second at Ascot 28 days ago should leave him spot on. Given his record in these types of races he’s a solid each way contender at around 10/1.
Coral Gold Cup 2025 – Verdict
I’m confident the winner comes from the shortlist above.
There’s not a lot of rain forecast until a bit of a downpour on Saturday. If Saturday’s rain doesn’t materialise, I would have the ground as good but with a bit of ease and if it does soft.
The front two in the betting, Resplendent Grey and Myretown, look the strongest contenders. Despite lacking a prep run, I marginally prefer Myretown, who still has improvement to come and won’t be fazed if the rain does arrive. Indeed I would think it will enhance his chance.
The Changing Man often finds one too good at the finish, but he looks a banker for the places and if the rain stays away, Annual Invictus – long absence aside – can outrun likely his price on decent ground. Katate Dori, The Doyen Chief and Victtorino are three others worthy of strong consideration in what should be a pre-Christmas cracker.
Wednesday Racing
There’s a decent card at Market Rasen this afternoon where the highlight is a Listed Mares Chase (2:25). Marsh Wren won this race off a long lay off 12 months ago and can do so again provided there’s enough ease in the ground.
I am out today so so my next column will be with you on Friday.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John