Hi all,
Today's piece includes my preview of Friday's Coral Welsh Grand National. With some spare time on Sunday, I had the chance to write it up in advance.
Coral Welsh Grand National – Chepstow
The Coral Welsh Grand National is among the most iconic staying handicap chases in the British National Hunt calendar.
Key Details
Date: Traditionally held on December 27th at Chepstow, though sometimes rescheduled to January due to weather.
Course & Distance: A gruelling 3 miles, 6 ½ furlongs on Chepstow’s undulating track, often run on soft or heavy ground—demanding proven stamina.
History
First run in 1895, it moved from Cardiff's Ely Racecourse to Chepstow in 1949.
Several winners have gone on to contest the Aintree Grand National or the Cheltenham Gold Cup:
Native River (2016): Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
Synchronised (2010): Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in 2012.
Earth Summit (1997): Dual winner of the Welsh and Aintree Nationals.
Burrough Hill Lad (1983): Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in 1984.
Trends & Insights
Weight: Lower weighted horses have dominated. Eleven of the last 16 winners carried between 10-0 & 10-10. Classy types can carry big weights to success Synchronised (11-6) and Native River (11-12) have done so. Albeit both went on to win Gold Cups. I think weight matters over longer distance in races like the Coral Welsh Grand National. Combine with usually testing ground and you can see why lower weighted horses have tended to dominate
Age: Twelve of the last 16 winners were aged between 6 and 8: 12 winners from 139 runners 33 places. Horses aged 9 and older: 4 winners from 162 runners, 31 places – Exp/Wins 9.18. Interestingly all the older horses who won had run at Chepstow previously. Those that had yet to run at the course are 0 winners 46 runners, 7 places.
Course Experience: Prior runs at Chepstow often prove vital, with 11 of the last 16 winners having 2-6 outings here. Three winners from 94 runners were making their Chepstow debut the latest of them being Emperors Choice (2014).
Stamina: Horses with previous runs over extreme distances (3m 5½f+) fare best. Eleven of the last 16 winners from 179 runners had run over 3m 5 ½ f +.
Recent Form: Horses finishing in the first three last time out have accounted for 13 of the last 16 winners, including eight last time out winners.
Trends Verdict
If you’re looking to shortlist contenders for this year’s Coral Welsh Grand National you could do worse than to look at horses with the following traits.
Those trends found 14 of the last 16 winners. The only two horses who failed one of the above trends were Emperor’s Choice and Elegant Escape. Emperor’s Choice failed the % of rivals beaten (4th of 6) on last start. Meanwhile Elegant Escape (2018) is the only winner not to have won a handicap chase. However, he had finished runner-up in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on his previous start.
Focusing on these factors can hopefully narrow down this year’s contenders effectively.
Coral Welsh Grand National 2024
Twenty-two remain at the final confirmation stage, though this will reduce further at declarations. Notable absentees include last year’s winner Nassalam, Mr Vango and Broadway Boy.
Paint The Dream heads the weights with an OR of 150, signalling this may not be the strongest renewal.
Leading Contenders
Monbeg Genius (5/1) favourite with the sponsors. He meets the key trends and is 3-3 at Chepstow. Yet to race beyond 3m 2f but has solid claims.
Jubilee Express returns from a 282-day layoff but is trained by Sam Thomas, who is 8 winners from 25 runners 32% +64.25. 11 places with his runners in handicap chases run over 3m 1f+ and 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +34, 3 places with those returning from a 181+ day layoff including Al Dancer to win this season’s Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton. A compelling case can be made for him if ready.
Where It All Began a strong stayer returning from 270 days off. Ground conditions will be key, needs soft or heavy ground. Stablemate Stuzzikini won the Troytown Handicap Chase last time and could improve for a longer trip. Better ground suits.
Your Own Story is slow but consistent, second in the Borders National last time. A potential place contender.
Val Dancer progressive and unexposed over marathon trips but fails the handicap chase wins trend.
Atlanta Brave represents Kerry Lee, who won this in 2015 ( Her father won the race 2011 & 2013). However, he was only 4th of 5 on seasonal return and is still a maiden over fences.
Coral Welsh Grand National 2024 Verdict
The ground shouldn’t be as testing as it can be and my race shortlist isn’t as long as usual. Monbeg Genius has strong claims, while Jubilee Express could deliver first time out if fully wound up. Of the Elliott runners, Stuzzikini edges preference on better ground. For each-way players, Val Dancer and Atlanta Brave offer each way appeal.
If you want my Coral Welsh Grand National picks along with all my Christmas & New Year previews and selections, you can get them here.
All the best,
John