Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you’ll find my preview of Saturday’s Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. I looked at the Boxing Day highlight, the King George VI Chase, in Tuesday’s column. Today, the focus switches to one of the season’s great staying handicap chases.
Chepstow – Coral Welsh Grand National
The Coral Welsh Grand National is one of the most iconic races in the British National Hunt calendar. Run over a gruelling 3 miles 6½ furlongs on Chepstow’s undulating track, it’s often contested on soft or heavy ground and places a premium on proven stamina.
Looking at the key trends, which cover 16 winners from 318 runners, a few clear patterns emerge.
Weight
Lower-weighted horses have tended to dominate. Twelve of the last 17 winners carried between 10-0 and 10-10. Classier types can defy big weights – Synchronised (11-6) and Native River (11-12) both managed it – but they went on to win Gold Cups. In a race like this, over an extreme distance on testing ground, weight is a major factor.
Age
Thirteen of the last 16 winners were aged six to eight, producing 13 winners from 149 runners and 35 places. Horses aged nine and older have managed just four wins from 167 runners. Notably, all older winners had previous Chepstow experience.
Course experience
Familiarity with Chepstow often counts for plenty. Eleven of the last 17 winners had already run at the track between two and six times.
Recent form
Recent performance is a strong guide. Fourteen of the last 17 winners finished in the first three on their previous start, including nine last-time-out winners from 67 qualifiers.
All 17 winners met the following three criteria.
Digging deeper 16 of the last 17 met the following:
Given the Exp/Wins was 9.56 those are some serious trends.
Twenty-two horses remained at Monday’s final confirmation stage for this year’s Coral Welsh Grand National. There’s likely to be some further attrition before final declarations, but hopefully we still get a field of 16 or more.
Contenders
Here are a few on my shortlist.
Rock My Way appeals from a handicapping perspective. The 7yo was an emphatic 11-length winner of the Berkshire National at Ascot last time. He’s 9lb higher here, but this has clearly been the plan. If he’s as effective on soft ground, he has strong claims.
Mr Vango was a short-head runner-up in the Becher Handicap Chase (3m2f) at Aintree on his seasonal return earlier this month. Soft ground suits and a return to a marathon trip is a big plus. He’s a credit to connections and, provided this doesn’t come too quickly, he has solid claims from the same mark.
O’Connell gained a fifth success over fences when winning the London National at Sandown 21 days ago, producing a career-best effort on RPRs. He carries a 4lb penalty here, but the bigger concern is his hold-up style in a race where prominent racers are often favoured.
Jubilee Express, runner-up in last year’s renewal, returned to winning ways when making all to land the Welsh Grand National Trial here last time. That race has a strong recent record of producing winners of this. He goes well on soft ground and clearly enjoys Chepstow.
Collector’s Item was a 2½-length runner-up to Jubilee Express in the Trial and can race off the same mark here. He has obvious claims from a handicapping perspective and is likely to be ridden prominently, which is no bad thing in this race.
Git Maker finished third in last year’s Scottish Grand National, so stamina is assured. A course winner over hurdles, he goes well on soft ground, and this has clearly been the plan. The 9yo had a spin over hurdles at Lingfield last month and is another with solid claims.
Christmas Offer
If you want my Christmas and New Year’s Day previews and selections, you can get them here.
I’ll be back on Friday to look ahead to the Boxing Day action.
All that’s left is to wish you and yours a very Happy Christmas.
John