Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting.
Craven Meeting Kicks Off As Flat Action Steps Up a Gear
The Flat is about to hit top gear. Newmarket’s three-day Craven Meeting begins today—and with it come more key Classic trials.
There’s been a shake-up to the running order this year. What’s usually a low-key Tuesday card has been pushed to Thursday. That’s moved the more high-profile action—like the Nell Gwyn Stakes and Earl of Sefton Stakes—forward to Tuesday. The Craven Stakes and Abernant Stakes have also moved, now taking place on Wednesday.
The ITV cameras will be there for both Tuesday and Wednesday, also picking up the first day of Cheltenham’s April Meeting. That includes the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle, one of Wednesday’s feature races.
However, there’ll be no ITV coverage on Thursday. That means Cheltenham’s Mares’ Card will only be available via Racing TV. Most likely, this is a logistics move, as ITV is lining up a massive 11-race broadcast from All-Weather Finals Day across Newcastle and Lingfield on Good Friday.
Before I get stuck into today’s Craven Meeting, here’s a quick word on a couple from Saturday that caught the eye…
Did We See a Classic Winner at Newbury on Saturday?
Despite Duty First’s dominant win in the Fred Darling Stakes, I’m not convinced she’s a 1,000 Guineas winner in waiting. She powered away from her rivals but might not see out a strongly run mile, and she didn’t really handle Newmarket’s dip last autumn.
I was more taken with Jonquil in the Greenham Stakes. Yes, he had to work hard to win, but he beat a solid yardstick in Rashabar, and the mile should really suit him. Here’s a replay of the race.
Jonquil didn’t back up his debut promise as a two-year-old, but he’s clearly trained on. I think he deserves serious consideration for the first colts’ Classic at Newmarket. He now joins another colt, who I'll be advising to subscribers on Wednesday, on my 2,000 Guineas shortlist. I haven’t backed Jonquil yet – but I might well do.
Weekend Eye-Catchers
Urban Lion (Jack Channon)
Urban Lion two from two on the all-weather, put in easily his best run on turf when just denied in Saturday’s Spring Cup at Newbury. Lightly raced with only seven career starts, he’s effective at a mile but bred to get a bit further. Even after reassessment, he’ll still be on a competitive mark. There could be a nice handicap in the 4-year-old this summer.
In the same race, James McHenry was a disappointing 5/1 favourite. He’d previously gone well first time up, so his 11th of 14 was underwhelming. Perhaps he just needed this outing more than expected. Or he wasn’t on the right part of the track or didn’t handle what some trainers were describing as loose ground.
Connections are maybe eyeing up the Thirsk Hunt Cup on 2,000 Guineas Day, and that could be a better reflection of where he’s at.
Ramazan – Richard Fahey
Ramazan was probably in need of the run when finishing 6th of eight to stablemate Our Havana in the 7f handicap at Musselburgh on Sunday. This run will have blown away the cobwebs. Equally effective over 6f or 7f in a big field on a straight course, he should get dropped a couple of pounds after this effort. That means he will look well treated for next month’s Victoria Cup; a race he was only beaten a head in last year.
Spanish Harlem (Willie Mullins)
He was going well when carried out through no fault of his own in the Coral Scottish Grand National. He holds an entry in the Irish National, but I’d love to see him head to Sandown for the Bet365 Gold Cup instead. I haven’t gone in ante-post yet as I am wating to see if he’s declared for the Fairyhouse race first.
Classic Clues at the Craven Meeting
The first day of Newmarket’s Craven Meeting brings two Group 3 and a Listed contest to the table, with possible Classic pointers on offer in two of the races.
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 26%-win strike rate at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting. You can improve that already good strike rate by focusing on his favourites at the meeting.
Appleby has well fancied horses in five of this afternoon’s races. It could be a very good day for the yards followers or a poor one.
The Nell Gwyn Stakes (3:00), a 1,000 Guineas trial, headlines the card alongside the Earl of Sefton Stakes (3:35). Both Charlie Appleby’s runners flopped in Saturday’s Newbury trials—something to consider if you fancy Verse Of Love, the current ante-post favourite for the Nell Gwyn. That said she did look the part when bolting up over C&D on debut last October, but at the prices I’d tread carefully.
Arabian Dusk has stronger juvenile form and arguably should be favourite. She ran her best race in the Group 1 Cheveley Park here, staying on for third behind Lake Victoria. That was over 6f, and she looks the type to appreciate 7f now.
The one I’m most curious about is Nardra. A daughter of Night Of Thunder and a 440,000 Gns yearling, she was an easy winner on debut at Haydock. Yes, it was heavy ground, and she didn’t beat much, but she did it well and showed a good attitude. My paddock watcher described her to me as “a nice, scopey filly who should do well as a 3-year-old.” Trainer William Haggas won this race in 2021.
Earl of Sefton: Ottoman Fleet Targets Hat-Trick
Six go to post in the bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes, where Ottoman Fleet bids for a third straight win in the race. He’s back from Meydan and runs well fresh. He’s joined by stablemate First Conquest, who also improved in Dubai over the winter but must give 3lb away after winning a Group 3 out there.
Ambiente Friendly—second in last year’s Derby—makes his stable debut for James Owen, in the same ownership. He’s officially 5lb clear of his rivals but this is just a starting point for the season and 1m1f might be a bit sharp. I suspect connections will have an eye on the Coronation Cup back at Epsom for which he’s an interesting 16/1 with William Hill.
Feilden Stakes: Promising Colts in the Spotlight
Earlier on the card, the Listed bet365 Feilden Stakes (2:25) is a potentially interesting 3-year-old contest with six of the eight declared holding Group 1 entries.
Masai Moon (Charlie Appleby) was the sponsor’s 13/8 favourite and looked a nice prospect when winning on debut at Kempton. He’s bred to get further this year and should be a big player.
King Of Cities (Richard Hannon) could come forward again for quicker ground and gets Ryan Moore in the saddle. The pair combined to win this race in 2016.
Also keep tabs on Sallaal (Roger Varian), who impressed when making a winning debut (7f) at Yarmouth. He looks the type to improve with age and experience. Yard won this in 2022.
Green Storm is more exposed than his rivals, which also means he's top-rated on Racing Post Ratings (RPRs). However, with so many potential improvers in the line-up, he could be underestimated by punters. Tom Marquand takes over in the saddle for a yard that won this race in 2018.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John