Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I preview Saturday’s ITV Racing action.
I said in yesterday’s column that Trustintimes, back from a 160-day break, would be a real test of the handicap hurdle method. He was — and he won at a very generous 20/1.
Does that result invalidate the method? Of course not. It simply shows why I use it as a shortlisting tool, not a rigid rulebook.
Weekend Jumps Digest
The jumps season finds its rhythm this weekend with top-class action from Haydock, Punchestown and Ascot. The Grade 1 Betfair Chase is the highlight on Saturday, while Punchestown hosts the Morgiana Hurdle and Sunday’s John Durkan Chase.
Punchestown
Willie Mullins has dominated the Morgiana Hurdle, winning eight of the last ten renewals. He trains the front two in the betting in Lossiemouth and Irancy and it’s hard to see the prize going elsewhere. The latter a Grade 1 novice hurdler over C&D is promising but must concede 7lb to the mare. It’s a race I’ll watch with interest but won’t be having a bet in. Sunday’s John Durkan Chase should be another cracker. Fact To File, who edged Spillane’s Tower in a thriller last year, is favourite to follow up. Fastorslow, the 2023 winner, can take advantage if the favourite isn’t fully tuned up. Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin also returns but an extended 2m3f is an inadequate stamina test.
Haydock
Betfair Chase (3:00)
A small but classy line-up. Grey Dawning heads the betting for the Betfair Chase and, with conditions less testing than last year, can reverse placings with Royale Pagaille, who needs softer ground. Haiti Couleurs steps up to Grade 1 company and must go close if he’s a genuine Gold Cup type. Handstands and Steller Story complete the five.
Grey Dawning is the most likely winner of this year’s but it’s not a betting race for me.
Betfair Stayers’ Premier Handicap Hurdle (2:25)
The race of the day for me.
Ma Shantou looked tailor-made for this when winning at Cheltenham last time and is favourite.
Electric Mason, runner-up Ma Shantou there, is 5lb better off and strongly respected.
Shoot First aims to defend his crown, now 6lb higher but 7lb conditional has been booked.
Ace Of Spades remains progressive and is unexposed at 3m. He’s preferred to stablemate Joyeux Machin.
Navajo Indy and Hartington are two more with good claims.
Elsewhere on the Haydock card: Kabral Du Mathan heads the betting in the 1:15, and The Jukebox Man reappears in the 1:50 Graduation Chase.
Ascot
ITV covers the best of Haydock and Ascot plus Punchestown’s Morgiana Hurdle. The Ascot card contains a couple of interesting Grade 1’s and along with competitive handicaps
In the Grade 2 1965 Chase (1:30), Il Est Francais could dominate from the front, though dual race winner Pic D’Orhy remains a big danger. Jango Baie and Gidleigh Park two promising second season chasers add depth.
Ascot Hurdle (2:40): Wodhooh is the one to beat after high-class spring form. Altobelli, unbeaten twice over C&D, looks the main threat to the mare.
Hurst Park Handicap Chase (3:15): Teddy Blue and Gabriel’s Getaway re-oppose after finishing first and second here three weeks ago. JPR One and last year’s winner Martator look threats. JPR One gets the first time cheekpieces and will appreciate the better ground. Meanwhile Martator is 1lb below his last winning mark.
Good fields, strong form angles and real depth providing some proper early-season fare.
I’ll be back on Monday to look back at the weekend’s big race action.
Cheers
John