Curragh Free Tips

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on a couple of races at the Curragh this evening.

Epsom Derby Day Attendance: A Mixed Bag

This year's Epsom Derby Day saw a slight uptick in attendance compared to 2023, which is a positive sign. Last year’s lower turnout was largely due to the Derby going off early and a rail strike, factors that significantly affected crowd numbers.

2023: 25,413

2024: 27,000?

So, yes, crowds increased to around 27,000—time to uncork the champagne, right? Maybe not just yet.

Historical Context

Let's look at the Derby Day attendance for the previous three years:

2022: 37,274

2019: 38,044

2018: 35,258

Given these numbers, the 2024 turnout is still disappointing. If the sport were truly back on track, we would have expected numbers north of 30,000. The Downs, which used to be packed, were practically empty. You can’t blame the cost of living either, as it’s free to attend the Downs.

Racing's Urban Disconnect

Alan Sweetman wrote a thought-provoking article in the Racing Post about Irish racing that applies equally well to Britain. The key point he makes is:

“I'm certain though that racing has lost its urban constituency.”

He's spot on. For years, I've argued that horse racing has lost its working-class base in cities and old industrial towns. Young working-class men used to get into the sport through betting, but that pathway has closed. It’s not that they don’t bet—they do, but on other sports.

The Changing Landscape of Betting

When I started, horse racing was practically the only sport you could bet on at the local bookie. Betting shops were community hubs where working-class men would gather, discuss the sport, and place bets—a surprisingly communal activity. Fast forward 40 years, and betting has become an isolated activity, done at home with just a click.

The Future of Racing's Fan Base

How do we get a new generation of working-class men back into betting on horses and engaged as fans? The harsh reality is that we likely won’t. They have other sports to bet on, and society has changed. Racing needs to find new ways to attract and engage fans in this evolving landscape.

Go Saffie!

Last month, I chatted about how impressed I was with jockey Saffie Osborne, and this past Sunday provided another example of her skill in action. Saffie steered Aerion Power to victory at Nottingham, a horse that hadn’t won for three years. She expertly finessed Aerion Power to get in front in a tightly contested finish. I was on the runner-up, Great Blasket, and the contrast between Saffie and Gina Mangan on the second-place horse was striking. If you saw the race, you’ll know what I mean.

Saffie is now 3 wins from 7 rides (+9.23) with 2 places when combining with Aerion Power’s trainer, Sir Michael Stoute.

She had another winner on Trefor at Windsor on Monday evening. I fancied Trefor for the race, and once my main pick Jimmy Speaking was a non-runner, I had a bet on Trefor. Saffie delivered a tidy 7/2 winner. If you read my preview of the race in Monday’s column, I’m sure you would have been on too.

Saffie Osborne is already among the top ten jockeys riding in the UK, and she’s only getting better. Indeed, looking at the Racing Post she’s in 6^th place on turf this season, just 10 winners behind leader Osin Murphy.

Source Racing Post:

Looking at that table, what’s eyecatching is her win strike rate on favourites.

Where does Saffie’s profit come from?

There’s a nifty little tool on horseracebase which tells us.

Hopefully, Saffie will get a chance to showcase her skills in some big races this summer.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 1

We’ve entered that twilight period between the end of the Epsom Derby Festival and the start of Royal Ascot. We’ve had so much top quality action on the flat in the last month that this weekend’s offering looks, shall we say underwhelming.

The ITV Racing action comes from Haydock and Beverley. Haydock stages the Group 3 Lester Piggott Fillies' Stakes (3.00) and Group 3 John of Gaunt Stakes (3.35). The Beverley feature contest is the Two-Year-Old Trophy (2.40).  I’ll look at some of Saturday's big races in Thursday’s column.

Wednesday Racing

The ground turned soft during racing at Leicester and that didn’t suit yesterday’s selection User Amistoso. He came in for money as I expected but was the first beaten on ever slowing ground.

The best of Wednesday’s action is clearly across the Irish Sea at the Curragh. It’s an eight race evening card with the highlight being two handicaps worth €29,500 on offer to the winner.

6:25 – Majestic Beauty wasn’t at her best on stable debut last month but should be sharper here. Air Force One won a Navan maiden on stable debut last month and wouldn’t need to have improved much to make a winning handicap debut for the inform Paddy Twomey yard.  At the prices I like the claims of Nikki Swango who didn’t get the best of runs when a 1½ length 5th of 14 on handicap debut at Naas (6f) last month. Looks weighted to close if not inconvenienced by the drop back to 5f.

7:00 – A win and you’re in race for York’s Ebor Handicap.  Saturn got within a length of completing a hat trick when 3^rd of 12 here (1m 2f) 11 days ago. A progressive for 4-year-old, he should stay 1m 4f and if he stays 1m 6f he’d be the one to beat. All five of Ceallach’s career wins have come at Dundalk (0 from 7 on turf). However, he’s officially rated 15lb lower than his all-weather mark. He’s on a very good mark if he can translate his all-weather form to grass. Burren Song was beaten ¾ length into third in last year's race for his previous yard. Didn’t get competitive over hurdles on his stable debut last month but better expected back on the level. Should be in the mix if back to last year’s form.

Wednesday Selection:

Curragh

6:25 – Nikki Swango – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John