Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m doing a final review of York’s Dante Festival. Plus, you can read my thoughts on the 6f handicap at Ayr this evening.
Dante Festival Review
York’s Dante Festival is done and dusted for another year. Despite the tragic deaths of two horses on day one, no fault of the course imho, it was great start to a new season of racing on the Knavesmire.
York is the best racecourse in Britain and in William Derby they have the best Clerk Of The Course in the business If you haven’t been its worth a visit and you won’t be disappointed.
The going was good to firm for the three days and the ground was ideal for flat racing. Indeed it was a joy to watch. Unlike some courses I could mention York tend to let nature do its work. Yes, they put on 2mm of water on the home straight on Thursday night, but it was hardly overdone.
This year’s Dante Festival was a tough one for punters playing the front end of the market. Just 11 of the 21 races were won by horses in single figure odds. Once again I'm indebted to horseracebase.com for the following figures.
Compared those figures with horses returned 10/1 to 28/1.
I’m not sure why it proved to be a bit of ‘punters graveyard’ this year. At the 2022 Festival it was the market leaders who held sway with 19 of the 21 races being won by horses returned 17/2 or shorter.
For me double figure winners are good. I like to fish in the 6/1 to 18/1 odds pool, so those sorts of results suit. Two or three winners in that price range and you can make the game pay. A good three days for the bookies then. Which is strange as they normally only come out on top at York when it rains and turns the ground soft.
Wednesday
Soul Sister caused an 18/1 shock in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes. In the process the filly became the major challenger to Oaks ante post favourite Savethelastdance.
The daughter of Frankel was one of the few winners to come from behind to win on a day where prominently ridden horses dominated.
I think the form of this win is stronger than Savethelastdance’s Cheshire Oaks success and I fancy her to win the Oaks on ground quicker than good. Of course, how much water will Epsom put on prior to the race? I suspect the course management will want to ensure good ground for Derby Day so it will be on the easy side of good for Oaks Day.
Apart from the winner If there was one horse to take out of the race it would Empress Wu. As she ran better than her 9 ½ length 7th of 8 suggests. Softer ground will probably suit her like it did her dam’s full sister Madame Chiang. She had looked a potential pattern winner when successful on her racecourse debut last November and that remains a possibility.
Thursday
Whilst Tuesday’s Musidora made the Oaks picture clearer. Thursday’s Dante didn’t add any further light on the Derby for me.
The Foxes produced a decent turn of foot to win the Group 2 Dante Stakes. Whilst there’s a good chance, he will stay the Derby distance he doesn’t strike me as a winner of the race.
I prefer the claims of runner-up White Birch. He looks like he can improve a bit more for the step up to 1m 4f and has good each way claims. If he was trained by Aidan O’Brien, he would be half his present odds for the Derby.
Several of the runners in the Dante didn’t really like the quick ground. The one that come to mind are Liberty Lane (7th) and Canberra Legend (8th) both are worth another chance in this company with more suitable underfoot conditions.
Friday
The 4-year-old’s came to the fore in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup. Giavellotto, third in last year’s St Leger took advantage of the 5lb he was getting from St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov to win the York feature.
It was an encouraging return to action by the runner-up. At level weights and with this race under his belt I would be very confident he would reverse placings with the winner should they meet in next months Ascot Gold Cup.
With no Kyprios in the race this year’s race the Gold Cup looks wide open. Eldar Eldarov has as good a chance as any of the leading fancies in the betting. I think he will stay 2m, but will he stay 2m 4f though.
The third home Broome needs further than 1m 6f in this company and he’s not of the Gold Cup reckoning should connections run him.
Dante Festival: Future Winners
Plenty of well fancied horses unperformed over the three days and the meeting had more than its fair share of unlucky horses.
Here are three future winners from each day of the Dante Festival.
Wednesday
Mr Wagyu – John Quinn
Won valuable 6f handicaps at Epsom & the Curragh last summer sandwiched between a 4th of 26 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot. Much better than on his first two starts this season when 2 ¾ length 7th of 21 to Bielsa.
It’s worth noting all his all his fifteen career wins have come in June & July – 15 wins from 30 runs 50% +68.92 24 places 80%. His record outside those two months is – 0 wins from 43 runs 8 places 18.6%.
The handicapper has started to give 8-year-old a chance and he’s working his way back to winning form.
Thursday
The 5f handicap won by Regional contained a couple that caught your pundits eye.
Korker – Karl Burke
Down the field in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance 12 days previously. As expected, the 4-year-old ran much better when finishing a ½-length 2nd of 13 to Regional. Not for the first he didn’t make the best of starts but when he does get off on level terms with his rivals can win a nice 5f handicap pot.
The Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot looks likely to be his next race. It’s a race he lost many lengths at the start in last season but still managed to finish a 3 ½ length 11th of 27th.
It should also pay to keep an eye on Whenthedealinsdone who was a 4 ½ length seventh. He was still travelling ok when not getting a run 2f and jockey William Buick wasn’t hard on him when his chance was gone. The Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap could also be his target given he won over C&D last September.
Friday
Aramaic – William Haggas
Aramaic will likely have gone into few trackers after his 2 ¾ length 6th of 13 to Marhaba The Champ. He missed the whole of last season and was back from a 608 day absence on Friday. The lightly raced 5-year-old showed enough to suggest he’s retained plenty of his old ability. He should stay further than 1m 2f and can land a nice handicap pot from his present mark.
Tuesday Preview
Punters seeking a bet on Tuesday are spoilt for choice with seven meetings across Britain & Ireland. Fifty one races and not one that has more than £10,000 on offer to the winner.
If your happy to bet on moderate races you’re going to be clover today. Me, I’m going to enjoy the spring sunshine and continuing working on the garden.
Ayr
7:00 – Just the eight for this 6f Class 3 handicap. However, it’s a competitive enough contest despite the lack of runners.
Woven was back to winning ways at Doncaster 17 days ago. A 6lb rise in the weights is workable compared to his back class and he should remain competitive, but it was soft ground at Doncaster.
Abduction comes into the race in good form having finished a ¾-length 2nd of 15 at Musselburgh (5f) last time. The return to 6f will suit the 5-year-old who must be respected.
Fast And Loose was a 4 ¾ length behind Woven last time. However, that was the 4-year-old’s first start since October, and he probably needed the run. He improved for the fitting of the blinkers when a short head 2nd of 24 in the Bronze Cup over C&D last September. The blinkers left off last time return here and he’s high on the shortlist.
Soldier's Minute is arguably a slightly better horse on the all-weather these days but he’s got plenty of form over C&D that would give him a chance here including when a head 2nd of 24 in the Silver Cup in 2021. Now 5lb lower on turf and was an encouraging 4 length 13 of 21 to Bielsa at York last week.
Verdict:
Given the form of the Michael Dods yard its hard to rule out Woven following up his Doncaster win. Abduction should appreciate the return to 6f. Fast And Loose was behind Woven last time but that was his seasonal return and he will like the quicker ground. Soldier's Minute has plenty of good C&D form to his name and shaped better than his run at York last week suggests. I'm torn between Fast And Loose and Soldier's Minute. However, with the former likely to get an uncontested lead he just rates the pick.
Tuesday Selection:
Ayr
7:00 – Fast And Loose – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John