Morning all,
Haggas Horse Makes Rapid Headway
Not much to report on from the weekend’s racing action. The only highlight was the performance of Headway in winning the 7f Listed Race. The 3-year-old was second at Royal Ascot and finished third in the Gimcrack on his final start of last season. Backed into 11/10 favourite his backers must have been thinking that his winning chance had gone 2f from home when he looked to have too much to do.
The colt produced a tremendous change of gear when his jockey asked him for his effort and he overhauled the eventual runner-up in the shadow of the post. He needs quick ground on turf to be at his best according to connections and the way he covered the ground confirmed those thoughts.
I doubt he is up to Classic level but he certainly deserves to take his chance in one of the trials. Given his owners a race at Royal Ascot will no doubt be on his agenda especially as he should get the quick ground he needs there. If he doesn’t get a mile the Jersey Stakes could be a good race for the horse.
One Week To Go
Well this time next week we’ll be just a day from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. Not sure about you but I can’t wait and the recent freezing weather and lack of jumps action has only wetted the appetite even more.
The chance that the Festival will be run on soft ground looks more and more likely and if the forecasters are right then the track could see another 15mm of rain before the start of the meeting. If you’re like me you have ante-post bets at the meeting based on having goodish ground you will be a shade concerned. But that’s the perils of ante-post betting and you have to take it on the chin. Given Cheltenham dries quickly a couple of sunny mild days would probably see it being genuinely good-to-soft on Tuesday.
Cheltenham Festival: The Handicap Angles
Last week I looked at backing favourites at the Cheltenham Festival as promised last week I am going to have a look at a couple of interesting handicap angles.
1. David Pipe – Handicap Chases
David Pipe’s runners in handicap chases at the Festival are always worth a second look. In the past 10 years his record in such races is – 8 winners from 76 runners 11% +5.83 A/E 1.53 19 placed 25%. But if you focus in on his runners that last raced 30 to 120 days prior to the Festival and were ridden by Tom Scudamore and Jamie Codd you have the following set of results:
7 winners from 16 runners 44% +46.83 A/E 4.83 9 placed 56% (Each way punters would have gained +60.16 and betting to BSP would have seen a profit of +56.25)
2. Paul Nicholls – Handicap Hurdles
Paul Nicholls has had ten handicap winners at the festival in the past 10 years.
Chases – 2 winners from 65 runners 3% -27 7 placed 11% A/E 0.38
Hurdles – 8 winners from 78 runners 10% +35.5 A/E 1.53 23 placed 29%
Whilst he can get handicap chase winners at the meeting you have to sort out the ‘wheat from the chaff’ and it’s better to concentrate on his runners in handicap hurdles. All 8 winners have shared the following:
Age: 4 to 6-year-old
Official Rating: 141 or less
8 winners from 43 runners 19% +70.5 A/E 2.58 19 placed 44% (profit to BSP +90.7 each way betting all runners +127.38)
Drilling down further you could look at those runners that finished 1st or were having their first start for him:
6 winners from 15 runners 40% +60.5 A/E 4.11 8 placed 53% (profit to BSP +72.66 – each way +88.88)
Next week’s Monday column will just look at Cheltenham and will also include a Willie Mullins Festival angle.
Monday Racing & Selection
There’s a chance we could see the return of jumps racing today with Southwell and Lingfield both set to host meetings. The former looks the more likely at this stage. There is also a “Jumpers Bumper” card on the all-weather at Kempton and a Monday evening flat card at Wolverhampton.
Southwell
5:00 – Tarrona looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest. The 9-year-old hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound as this will only be his 12th career start. No shows on either of his two starts this season but he’s on a competitive mark based on his best form last season at around this time of year when twice a runner up at Hereford.
A reproduction of either of those would give him a big chance here but a reproduction of his two runs this season give the top-weight zero chance. If the 8 declared runners stand their ground then an each way bet looks the way to go if you can get 16/1 or 20/1.
Wolverhampton
If Southwell doesn’t survive the weather keep an eye on one in the Class 2 handicap at Wolverhampton.
7:45 – Diodorus – The four-year-old trained by Karen McLintock is having his third start for the trainer since switching from Aiden O’Brien stable. Ran well enough when finishing 4th on his stable/handicap debut at Newcastle after a 134-day break. He ran just as well when 4th , here over 1m 2f, three weeks ago, when he wouldn’t have been suited by the moderate gallop on his first start since a gelding operation.
He was second in a Listed race as a juvenile and won a Dundalk maiden on his final start for his previous trainer. On the latter occasion it was battling attitude and stamina that won him a moderate race.
The step up to 1m 4f will suit him and if the first time cheekpieces do the trick he can outrun his likely big odds. I am sure his trainer will be able to win races this year with this son of Galileo. Will it be today?
Monday Selection
Southwell
5:00 – Tarrona -20/1 @ BetVictor & Bet365
All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable week’s betting.
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