Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you can read my recap on Saturday’s action.
It was a quiet Saturday on the track, but the big news came off it. Ryan Moore has suffered a stress fracture of the femur. The injury will likely see him out for the rest of the season.
The timing is a major setback for Aidan O’Brien, with the St Leger and a string of autumn Group 1s just ahead. To compound things for Ballydoyle, number two jockey Wayne Lordan faces a ten-day ban between September 9th to 18th. If he fails in his appeal, he’ll miss the St Leger and Irish Champions Weekend.
I know some readers aren’t Ryan Moore fans but any replacement, who isn’t already retained elsewhere, is going to be a downgrade on Moore. I would expect that ‘the lads’ will look to get Christophe Soumillon over to ride their horses on Irish Champions Weekend.
Sandown: Dawson Doubles Up
At Sandown, Ray Dawson made the headlines. Fresh from a broken arm, he bagged a double for Roger Varian. Lady Of Spain struck first in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes.
Lady Of Spain, unbeaten in four starts last season, returned from a long break to make her turf debut in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes. The layoff and new surface didn’t stop her. She travelled well on the rain-softened ground, was always in the right place, and ran out a good winner. Autumn now looks full of promise for the 4-year-old filly.
Blue Bolt, who I backed at 6/1, ran a cracker in defeat, but she was less well positioned and made her effort alone down the middle of the track. She lost nothing in finishing a close second, but the winner was simply too strong.
The well backed Bright Thunder travelled best of all when taking it up 2f out but when asked, found nothing.
Lady Of Spain wasn’t the easiest to find unless you’re a dedicated follower of the Clive Holt Fireform Method. On that note, I’ve just started writing an article for a future issue of On Course Profits Magazine about Holt and his Fineform approach — a system that still has the knack of unearthing winners like this one.
Saddadd Delivers on Return, Justifying Autumn Campaign Plans
Dawson’s second winner was on Saddadd in the 1m 2f handicap. Back for the first time since winning the London Gold Cup at Newbury in May. The colt had been saved by trainer Roger Varian for easier ground and autumn campaign. Friday’s rain came in time for him, and it made the difference. He picked up well to justify connections Group 1 Champion Stakes entry. He was simply too good for his rivals and like his stablemate he should be set for a fruitful autumn.
Dangerman ran with credit on his hat trick bid in third. He just found a 9lb rise on testing ground too much. Castle Cove came from further back than the three that finished in front of him. I thought he was a bit tapped for toe at a vitals stage and looks worth a try over 1m 4f.
Solario Stakes: Four-Way Thriller to the Line
The 77th Solario Stakes was a thriller. Four horses crossed the line, just a neck separating them. The late withdrawal of Publish had took some shine off the race, but the finish made up for it.
A Bit Of Spirit, the 2/1 favourite, led until headed by Pacific Avenue inside the final furlong but rallied bravely. He got his nose down just in time to hold off Oceans Four and Humidity.
Pacific Avenue, slow away and forced to make up ground, looked like the winner, when hitting the front 1f out, until the final strides. He may be the one to take from the race.
A Bit Of Spirit showed toughness, if not the class of recent Solario winners like Kingman, Too Darn Hot and Field Of Gold.
It wasn’t the classiest renewals of the Solario Stakes but who cares what a thriller of finish and it’s those sorts of finishes that make the sport so appealing.
Beverley: Stott’s Agony to Ecstasy
Beverley staged its highlight of the year, the Listed Beverley Bullet. Kevin Stott had a dramatic afternoon. He passed the post first on Desert Shadow in the opener, but the stewards took the race away after ruling he had caused interference to the runner-up. He picked up a three-day ban. Redemption came quickly. He steered Shagraan to a clear win in the feature, proving too good for Adrestia. The disappointment of the race was class dropper Regional. Sent off 15/8 favourite, he was beaten early and trailed home last of nine. Connections blamed the track. It may be more than that. He ran like a horse gone sour.
Chester: Front-Runners Rule the Roost
At Chester, it was all about front-runners in the ITV races. Yanifer made all to win the Class 2 handicap over 7½f. Aidan Brookes broke smartly from stall 8, grabbed the lead, and judged the pace perfectly. He held off challenges by Two Tempting and finally Hawksbill with the latter snatching second close to home.
It was Yanifer’s big day. It was also a big day for Harriet Bethel. She has a small team but places them shrewdly. For me Harriet is the most underrated trainer in the North. If I was ever fortunate to own a racehorse, I would be happy to place them in her care.
I must confess Yanifer’s win was all the sweeter for having recommended it to Victor Value subscribers at 14/1 on Saturday morning. I had been hoping for the rain to arrive, but I went with him, and it paid off.
Earlier on the card, Allonsy took the Listed Chester Stakes in similar style. She jumped quickly, dictated steady fractions, and dug in late to hold off Tabletalk. It wasn’t a strong renewal, but the way she stuck her neck out to prevail was admirable.
A good weekend for those readers who joined me on Friday. It could have been even better had Genuine Article held on in the Irish Cambridgeshire. He looked the winner everywhere but the line, only to be nabbed late by the unexposed Jagged Edge on handicap debut. Beaten a short head, it was one of those “so near yet so far” moments.
Still, the month ends in profit and, after a stop–start 2025, I feel back in stride. Confidence is high, the feeling is there, and autumn can’t come quick enough. Bring it on.
Monday Racing
Last Monday I kicked off a 30-day challenge to show how a simple staking plan can protect your betting bank while still allowing it to grow. So far there have been five bets—no wins yet, but a couple of seconds along the way.
I have backed two of the five so far but my suggestion only back them if you fancy them yourselves.
It would be nice to land a winner or two this week, of course, but the real point is to demonstrate how the plan works in practice.
Anyway, onto today's action.
Carlisle
4:05 – Awraad has been progressive in recent weeks. She shaped well when finishing a 1¼ length 5th of 19 on her nursery debut at York’s Ebor Festival. That effort was followed by an even better run when just a ½ length runner-up in the Listed Ripon Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy last Monday. The step up to 7f should suit judged on her York run, and if she repeats her Ripon form she’ll be hard to beat. The market agrees, with odds of around 2/1 reflecting her chance, but at that price she won’t be Monday’s free tip.
5:37 – Jez Bomb comes here in form and chasing a hat-trick. He posted a career best on RPRs when scoring in a Thirsk handicap over 1m just 17 days ago. A 3lb rise looks manageable, and if he runs to that level again, he’s right in the mix. Quirke On Parole also arrives in good heart. She won at Beverley (1m 2f) two starts back and ran to form when runner-up back their last time. The slight drop in trip could help, and she represents a yard in fine form (3 winners from their last 8 runners). Like the favourite, easier ground is an unknown. With that in mind, I’ll pass on the race.
Windsor
6:00 – Yorkshire Lady hinted at a revival when 4th of 8 at Ayr three weeks ago. She’s not the most reliable, but worth noting she’s unbeaten in three September starts and sits just 1lb higher than her last winning mark. The long trip from Yorkshire suggests is interesting, so she’s not one to dismiss.
The two 3yo’s Byblos and Likealot are at the front of the betting. They will be popular with punters. Both hail from top yards with the latter who has improved her RPR’s on all four starts, just favoured of the pair.
At the prices Just An Hour looks a solid option. He won a 1m 2f handicap here in July and has run consistently since. Last time he shaped as though a return to further would suit when beaten two lengths into 4th here. Back with Oisin Murphy on board and a stable in flying form (6 winners from their last 20 runners), he looks the one to side with. He’s versatile with ground conditions too, which could prove key.
Just An Hour – £2 win – 5/1
Running Total – £88
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John