Hi all,
Inside today's main piece you can read my early thoughts on Saturday's December Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
Account Restrictions: Racing's Hidden Crisis
It’s not just about affordability checks, despite what racing rulers and the Racing Post keep claiming. Yes, affordability checks are a factor, but the real issue driving decreased turnover is being ignored: account restrictions.
I’ve argued that racing’s prize money would suffer as turnover decreases—not solely because of affordability checks, but due to the inability of punters to place a bet. Many punters are severely restricted, or even outright banned, making it nearly impossible to bet even modest amounts. If you want to place a £50 bet but are told you can only have £2, what do you do? Unless you’re a diehard fan, you simply walk away. Fans might find ways around restrictions—using friends’ accounts or other workarounds—but those methods are short-lived.
Ultimately, this short-sighted strategy by bookmakers undermines the entire betting ecosystem. Instead of restricting or closing accounts pre-emptively out of fear of potential long-term winners, bookmakers should focus on limiting big winners after they hit a defined milestone of profitability. This way, they could balance their books by offsetting losing accounts against winning ones.
The result?
Racing’s finances would stabilize, and bookmakers would also benefit. As it stands, we’re caught in a destructive cycle. Punters can’t bet, turnover declines, and racing becomes even less profitable for bookmakers. Eventually, the only punters left will be restricted winners playing with pennies, which isn’t sustainable for the industry.
Big Corp bookmakers are no longer risk-averse; they’re betting-averse. And they’re losing sight of what they’re supposed to do: take bets. Forcing a lay-to-lose model, where bookmakers must accept bets to win up to £1,000 (as seen in Australia) or transitioning to a Pari-Mutuel system with a racing run exchange are the only solutions left. The former won’t happen so we’re really left with only the latter. Without these changes, the future of horse racing—and the sports betting industry as a whole—looks bleak.
Cheltenham’s December Meeting
Cheltenham’s December Meeting is a festive treat for jump racing fans, combining top-class action with a warm, seasonal atmosphere. Taking place over two days, it provides another opportunity for horses to make their mark at Prestbury Park ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March.
Day One (Friday):
The card features competitive handicaps and novice contests, often highlighting emerging talent. The feature race is the Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Coming Soon Handicap Chase (1:50) which has £56,950 on offer to the winner.
It's a quieter day compared to Saturday, offering a more relaxed vibe for racegoers. ITV are covering four races live from Cheltenham on Friday afternoon.
Day Two (Saturday):
Headlined by the December Gold Cup (2m 4 ½ f), a valuable Grade 3 handicap chase that often attracts runners from the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November.
Supporting races include the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle (3m), which tests stamina and points towards potential Albert Bartlett contenders.
Why It’s Special?
Festival Clues: The meeting frequently showcases horses likely to return in March, offering punters key insights.
Festive Feel: With mulled wine, mince pies, and holiday cheer, it’s a great way to embrace the season while enjoying top-tier racing.
Cheltenham’s December Meeting mixes together festive spirit and thrilling action with pointers for the Cheltenham Festival.
Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (2m 4 ½ f)
Using horseracebase the December Gold Cup has seen 14 winners from 195 runners over, with 47 horses managing to place. All 14 winners had the following traits:
A straightforward profile emerges for finding the likely contenders:
Odds: Focus on runners priced 16/1 or shorter.
Form: Look for horses showing decent form in at least one of their last three starts.
Recency: Ensure the horse has run within the last 45 days.
With these simple guidelines, you can narrow the field effectively.
December Gold Cup Contenders
Fourteen horses remain in contention for Saturday’s race after Monday’s final confirmation stage, and you can throw a blanket over the top six on my ratings:
Ga Law (156)
Stage Star (156)
Fugitif (155)
Madara (154)
In Excelsis Deo (154)
Il Ridoto (153)
This tight cluster highlights the competitive nature of the race. Using the trends outlined earlier:
Stage Star fails the day’s since last run trend and hasn’t finished in the top three in his last three starts. Fugitif and Madara also fall short on the recent form trend.
This leaves a shortlist of:
Ga Law – Last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner and runner-up this year’s race.
Il Ridoto – Who won this year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.
In Excelsis Deo – Fits the key trends but unseated his rider when closing in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Other entries meeting the trends include:
Le Patron – Who jumped well when winning at Newbury 15 days ago.
Pinkerton – Potential Irish challenger who completed a hat trick when winning the Galway Plate in the summer and was runner-up in a Grade 2 last month.
Gemirande – An impressive winner at Ascot on last month’s seasonal return.
December Gold Cup Verdict
A handicap chase full of quality and intrigue. I have had last year’s winner Fugitif and Madara in my tracker for this and despite them failing one of the key trends they remain of strong interest. Ga Law has solid claims provide the ground doesn’t ease. Il Ridoto isn’t noted for consistency but is respected around here. In Excelsis Deo has a big pot in him if he can avoid mistakes. Meanwhile Pinkerton and Gemirande are players if taking their places in the line-up.
Best of luck with your December Gold Cup picks!
Wednesday Racing: Kempton's Standout Card
Kempton takes the spotlight on Wednesday with two key races:
7:10 – Unibet Wild Flower Stakes (Listed Race)
7:40 – Unibet London Stayers' Series Handicap (Series Final)
The latter, worth £36,078, is the most valuable race across Britain and Ireland today.
7:10 – Unibet Wild Flower Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f
Eydon: Rated highest on official marks, this 2022 2,000 Guineas fourth is a strong contender under Oisin Murphy.
Beeley: Runner-up in the Listed River Eden Fillies' Stakes (1m 5f) last time, now with George Boughey. Shorter trip is a slight query but she remains of interest.
Power Of Destiny: Scored on stable/all-weather debut here over 1m 3f. The form stacks up well against Eydon's recent efforts.
Champagne Prince: Consistent 3-year-old with all-weather figures of 1112. Needs improvement upped in class but is going the right way.
7:40 – Unibet London Stayers' Series Handicap (Series Final) – 2m
Duke Of Oxford: Defending champion. Maintains strong C&D form (3-4), narrowly winning here 21 days ago. Stall 8 shouldn’t hinder his chances.
Sheradann: Close third to Duke Of Oxford last time. Up 1lb, but stall 10 might prove tricky. Still in the mix.
Cool Party: Fourth behind Duke Of Oxford in his latest. Well-handicapped and has Oisin Murphy in the saddle, boosting his claims.
Zoran: C&D winner in June and recently victorious over hurdles. However, he was well beaten in this race last year.
Red Flyer: Needed a stamina test when fourth at Southwell (1m 6f) last time. A previous C&D winner and now 3lb below his last winning mark. Each way contender with Joe Leavy taking off 3lb.
Wednesday Verdict:
In the Wild Flower Stakes, Eydon is the class act but Power Of Destiny and Champagne Power are live dangers.
For the Stayers' Series Final, Duke Of Oxford has solid claims, but Cool Party could pose the biggest challenge under Osin Murphy. Red Flyer is an intriguing outsider with conditions to suit.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
I mostly agree with your thoughts on account restrictions & affordability, but I think you’re sort of missing the point. The fact that bookies aren’t actually bothered about racing is the real root of the problem.
I turn 60 in a fortnight, which means two things :
1) I am the average age of a UK racing fan & punter. Bookies are well aware of this. We’re a slowly dwindling market. Natural wastage will see us almost extinct in 20 years. Attempts by racing to attract younger fans have mostly failed miserably apart from on the biggest days & even that will fail eventually as even Tom bloody Jones will die someday & the supply of has been dance DJs will eventually be exhausted.
2) I grew up in a time when horses & dogs were pretty much all you could bet on. Meaning that bookies & racing were locked in a symbiotic embrace neither could do without.
Now that you can bet on anything down to what colour a given footballers laces are going to be in a premier league match, thats gone out the window. Plus there’s no shortage of young people willing to bet a fiver on some ridiculous boosted acca on a Saturday.
& nobody is going to bust Skybet by backing Man City to win at home at 1.65
With football betting now global & pretty much available every day, coupled with their vast casino income (those licences were the death knell. Thats when they ceased to be bookmakers & became casino operators) they no longer need racing. They’ll milk us old codgers for a decade or so yet & throw out a few big race sponsorships to keep us interested til the reaper calls (unless we win of course, god forbid!) But other than that they’re not interested.
Oh…as an aside. According to the GC all sports are down on turnover with racing being the worst hit. But what isn’t? The bloody casino. It’s flatlined. No loss in revenue, even in the midst of a cost of living crisis.
What does that tell you? The problem gamblers that all this rubbish is supposedly meant to be about are all in the sodding casino, blissfuilly unaffected by any of it. I’ve met people with addiction issues & they’re not trying to get a tenner on the 2:30 at Kempton. They’re playing the bloody slots. The whole thing is ridiculous & the GC seems to think that it’s role is to stop anyone from gambling. Somebody somewhere needs to remind them that they’re supposed to be a regulator, not a welfare charity.
I’d love to know where they were for 2 decades while bookies were riding roughshod over punters , restricting us for no reason at all. Then finally when they wake up what do they do? target the punters.
The whole lot of them should be sacked in the morning along with Ange Postecoglou.
Hi Brian,
Excellent comments
1) I am the average age of a UK racing fan & punter. Bookies are well aware of this. We’re a slowly dwindling market. Natural wastage will see us almost extinct in 20 years. Attempts by racing to attract younger fans have mostly failed miserably apart from on the biggest days & even that will fail eventually as even Tom bloody Jones will die someday & the supply of has been dance DJs will eventually be exhausted.
2) I grew up in a time when horses & dogs were pretty much all you could bet on. Meaning that bookies & racing were locked in a symbiotic embrace neither could do without.
The two are so interlinked. Young working class males in the 1980s had only horse racing and greyhound racing to bet on. Yes coupons had come into the shops but the minimum bet was an away treble. Now they can get bet on any sport they like and they aren’t betting on horse racing because of the alterantives. I wouldn’t probably have got involved in horse racing if I could have bet on football like you can now.
Forget attracting women racegoers if I’m running the BHA i would be wondering how I can get Working Class males to bet on my sport rather than the others.
You’re also right the bookies are not interested in horse racing punters.
So all in all in its a gloomy picture for thr sport.
Meant to give the odds of the horse – 14/1.
Oi, Oi, John, I Sorta Agree & Disagree, but There you go, can’t All ‘THINK ALIKE’, it Would be a Bloody Boring le monde if we DID. Not goina Mention Owt Bout Affordability Check’s, just the Racing-@’t xmas Meet-@-Cheltenham, I’m Avin’a 50p-EW Patent = ‘Stage Star’-(If he Runs)-‘GA Law’s = If Not, ‘Madara’ – I Think she Will Run & Return to the form she was showing this time last yr, & Finally ‘Il Redito’. An Hopefully, I Can Return a Few Nicker. Keep Up the Good Writing, as it’s Enjoyable Reading..
Thank Phil and yes its all opinions, good luck with your patent.