Hi all,
I’m delving into Saturday’s big race action with an in-depth preview of Cheltenham’s Virgin Bet December Gold Cup.
Impressive Novice Chasers Shine at Punchestown
We saw noteworthy performances from two novice chase winners at Punchestown on Tuesday.
In the William Hill Ireland Rated Novice Chase (2m), winning hurdler Spillane's Tower secured victory at the third attempt over fences. Despite a modestly run race which turned into a sprint the 5-year-old still had too many gears for his four rivals. A winner at Navan over hurdles (2m 3f) last season Spillane's Tower can improve for a step up in distance and win more races.
Thirty minutes later Embassy Gardens made a winning debut over fences in the beginners chase (2m 7 ½ f). The 7-year-old put in a good round of jumping for a novice. He looks a real staying chaser in the making and settled much better than he had done over hurdles. This debut was a promising start to his chasing career, and with more experience, he can climb the ranks in the novice chase division.
What’s Happening This Weekend?
Cheltenham two day December meeting gets underway on Friday. The feature race of the two days is Saturday’s Virgin Bet December Gold Cup (1.50). If the field sizes hold up Saturday’s undercard is strong with several competitive handicaps and the Grade 2 Bristol Novices' Hurdle (3.00).
ITV4 are covering four races from Friday’s card and five from Saturday’s. Plus, they’re taking two races live from Doncaster on Saturday.
Cheltenham: Virgin Bet December Gold Cup
Looking at the race trends since 2009 which contain 13 winners from 183 runners, 44 placed.
All 13 winners shared the following four traits:
Odds SP: 16/1 & under (18/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 59 runners, 5 placed).
Best In Three Runs: 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
Day Since Last Run: 16 to 45 days.
Trainers Win % in Previous 14 days: 11% to 28%.
That’s 13 winners from 68 runners +74, 25 placed.
Paul Nicholls is the top performing trainer with 5 winners from 25 runners 20% +28, 7 placed.
Key Contenders and Ante-Post Insights for Saturday's Feature Race
Fifteen were left in Saturday’s feature race at Monday’s final confirmation stage.
The ante post betting is headed by Thunder Rock. The 7-year-old secured victory over Mahler Mission at Carlisle upon his return and that form was boosted by the runner-up in the Coral Gold Cup. Back in handicap company he’s only 4lb higher than when winning at Ascot last November. Compelling claims.
Nicholls' Duo and Irish Raiders in the Mix
Paul Nicholls has a couple of contenders in Monmiral and Il Rodoto. The former, seemingly the pick of Harry Cobden, finished runner-up to Jonbon on his chase debut and occupied the same spot behind The Real Whacker in the Dipper over C&D in January. Handicap/seasonal reappearance and likely trained for the race. Il Ridoto won over C&D in January and was a solid 12 length 3rd of 14 to stablemate Stage Star in the Paddy Power last month. Looks sure to go well again.
Top weight Fakir D'oudairies seems likely to come over from Ireland for his seasonal return/handicap chase debut. The four time Grade 1 winning chaser has a good record fresh and has run well here in the past.
So Scottish like Fakir D'oudairies, owned by J P McManus will benefit from the top weight running. I have no doubt that he’s handicapped win a race like, but he needs to cut out the mistakes and might prefer better ground.
Fugitif Seeks Redemption
Fugitif probably did too much to early in the first time cheekpieces when a solid 16 length 4th of 14 in the Paddy Power. He’s been dropped 2lb since and should have come on for his latest run. His Cheltenham form line is 2224 and he goes well on soft ground. Might need to deliver at career best performance to win, but there's potential for him to rise to the occasion.
Easy As That struggled to keep up with the early pace in the Paddy Power. Nevertheless, to his credit, he rallied in the straight and managed to secure 6th place. I think he’s started the season on a good mark and has an each-way chance, but I think he might need further.
Torn And Frayed ran well for a long way in the Paddy Power before taking a tired fall two out. until lack of a run took its toll. That was the 9-year-old’s first run since he won a Grade 3 Handicap Chase over C&D on Trials Day in January 2022. He’s been dropped 3lb since and is on a competitive mark.
Grandeur D'Ame made it 3-7 over fences when winning at Wetherby last month. He jumped superbly well to win and is going the right way over fences. Up 8lb and in a much deeper race here but you couldn’t dismiss him despite being 3lb out of the handicap if the top weight runs.
Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Verdict:
It won’t have the biggest of field but looks a competitive renewal, nonetheless. Despite his big weight Fakir D'oudairies is an intriguing runner even though horses racing from a 46+ day layoff are 0 winners from 30 runners, 5 placed since 2009. Monmiral looks the Paul Nicholls number one but he’s another making his seasonal return. Thunder Rock has strong claims but 7/2 is a bit short for me and I don’t think he’ll be much tighter on the day. Fugitif goes well around here and another big run should be forthcoming from the 8-year-old. Grandeur D’Ame will find this tougher than Wetherby. However, he’s an improving handicap chaser and if he handles the track would have each way claims. Torn And Frayed would be 3lb wrong if Fakir D'oudairies was to run but he’s another who could get into the money at big odds.
Wednesday Preview:
Grade 1 winning hurdler Apple Away is having her second start over fences in beginners' chase (1.05) at Leicester. The race provides a good opportunity for the mare to get off the mark over the larger obstacles.
7:30 – Unibet Wild Flower Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 4f
The most valuable race of the day is the Listed Wild Flower Stakes (7.30) at Kempton. It’s not often you get to see Breeders' Cup Turf winner racing on Wednesday evening at Kempton. However, we do tonight as Rebel Romance is an odds-on favourite for the Kempton feature. A four time winner on the all-weather, including here. The 5-year-old has struggled on three starts since winning at Keeneland in November 2022 but remains the one to beat if back to his best.
Base Note gained a fifth all-weather success when winning a Chelmsford handicap last month. He got the run of the race that day and will face pressure from Rebal Romance’s stablemate Goldspur who is having his first run since finishing a length 3rd of 6 to Westover in last years Classic Trial at Sandown. Not sure what’s kept the 4-year-old off the track for 600 days, but he remains with potential if retaining his old ability.
The biggest rival to the favourite could turn out to all-weather debutant Salt Bay. The 3-year-old a useful juvenile has had a light 3-year-old campaign but posted a career best when 2 length 2nd of 7 to Not So Sleepy 81 days ago. If he takes to the new surface, I can see him running a big race.
Elegant Man is the most intriguing of the 8 runners. The 3-year-old impressed when winning a Dundalk maiden (1m 2 ½ f) on racecourse debut 47 days ago. He’s got a pedigree that shouts synthetic surface performer. This is a big step up in class but he’s open to plenty of improvement.
Best of the Rest
Kempton
7:00 – Urban Decay looked an improver for the drop back to 7f when successful here two starts back. Nowhere near that form when a 4 length 8th of 8 over C&D 28 days ago. The daughter of Frankel needs to bounce back but if she can there are more races to be won with her. Soar Above is an eight time course winner including three over C&D. His form figures in December are 121 However, he hasn’t beaten rival on his last two starts including over C&D last time and is on a 13 long losing run. If he was top bounce back to form, he’s well treated (10lb below his last winning mark).
8:00 – Holy Fire hasn’t been seen finishing 6th of 7 at Ascot in July. A 138 day break shouldn’t be an inconvenience though as the 3-year-old won a C&D novice in May off a 135 day layoff. No easy task under top-weight but should go well.
Exeter
Broomfield Present went into the tracker when a promising 2 ¼ length 3rd of 12 here (3m) on chase debut last November. He was brought down three out when 5/4 fav for a Uttoxeter handicap chase 17 days ago. Looked a thorough stayer here two starts back and could improve for the step up to an extended 3m 6f. If none the worse for his last time mishap will surely win races over fences.
Silver In Disguise bounced back to winning ways at Wetherby in April and ran just as well when a length 2nd of 13 in the Highland National at Perth over today’s trip. Looked as good ever on return from a summer break when a 6 ¾ length 3rd of 9 to Guetapan Collonges at Carlisle in October. No issues with the distance or soft ground and should run well.
Golden Sovereign’s best form has come on soft/heavy ground. He’s only had six starts over fences so isn’t totally exposed in the sphere. Stamina for the trip must be taken on trust. However, he looks worth another try over a marathon trip after a recent wind operation.
Wednesday Selection:
Apologies for yesterday’s selection Ede'iffs Elton who ran like an old donkey. Especially as I could have given you Aurigny Mill who was last Thursday’s selection for Wincanton’s abandoned meeting. Hopefully some of you were on the Victor Dartnell trained hurdler who went in at Wincanton yesterday.
As for Wednesday’s selection Broomfield Present is, despite his claims, to short for me. That leaves me with Urban Decay or Holy Fire to pick from and my dart had landed on the former.
Kempton
7:00 – Urban Decay – 8/1 @ Bet365.
Good luck with your Wednesday bets.
John
Hi John
I can’t say that I would be happy to be forced to send a horse to a trainer other than Mullins or Elliott, if I had spent tens of thousands on a horse specifically for that reason.
How would trainers and owners decide which of the stables 10 entries (for example) should run in a given race?
Fisticuffs at dawn?
Hi mate,
Yes, I get that viewpoint.
However, for over two decades, bookmakers have wielded significant influence in UK horseracing. Now, the larger stables and owners seem to follow suit, driven by the money they inject into this “leisure” pursuit or for personal reasons.
Horseracing is a leisure activity, and its essential element is the punters. Without punters, there is no horseracing. Even the bookmakers cannot sustain it if punters choose not to bet. The financial contributions of owners become inconsequential if the sport loses its competitiveness, becoming dominated by a select few wealthy owners favoring only a small group of trainers (2 or 3). Currently, these chosen trainers benefit unfairly at the expense of others.
In my view, owners are free to take their money elsewhere if they wish. Punters will not feel their absence. I am confident that future (genuine) owners will step in to purchase horses at reasonable prices. Stable staff, including lads and lasses, stand to benefit from a racing landscape that is better funded, possibly featuring fewer races but with improved leisure time and living standards.
But nobody should be forced to do something that they don’t want to.
I completely accept that it is another problem to deal with, but still not convinced that this is the right way to do it.
No, you can’t buy that horse, unless you send it to a trainer other than Mullins, or, Elliott..no, you can’t run in that race if your trainer already has 4 entries…no, we don’t care how you get your investment back, but it is unlikely to be with the help of prize money..no, you have no rights as to how your horse is campaigned….Oh, you won’t buy any more horses then? Why on earth not?
It’s just another nail John.