Hi all,
Yesterday, in true racing geek style, I was tracking the final declarations for both the Oaks and Derby on the BHA website.
All nine Oaks entries stood their ground — no surprise given the lack of depth among this year’s middle-distance fillies. Newmarket 1,000 Guineas heroine Desert Flower the form pick stood her ground, but rain softened ground will test her stamina. Ryan Moore has seemingly opted for Cheshire Oaks winner Minnie Hauk ahead of Whirl and Giselle. I don’t think his decision will have been an easy one.
Remarkably, 19 of the 20 Derby entries were declared, making it the biggest field since 2003. The only absentee was Aidan O’Brien’s Puppet Master, leaving him with three: Delacroix, The Lion in Winter, and Lambourn. Ryan Moore is on Delacroix — and how often does he get it wrong these days?
With such a large field, luck in running will play a big role. I wouldn’t be shocked if something at a price sprang a surprise.
If you haven’t seen it. Here’s the Derby draw.
Derby Draw
1: Rogue Impact
2: Stanhope Gardens
3: Lazy Griff
4: Midak
5: Nightwalker
6: Tuscan Hills
7: Ruling Court
8: Green Storm
9: Nightime Dancer
10: Lambourn
11: Tornado Alert
12: Tennessee Stud
13: Al Wasl Storm
14: Delacroix
15: Damysus
16: Pride Of Arras
17: New Ground
18: Sea Scout
19: The Lion In Winter.
Since 2008 there have been seven renewals of the Derby with 16 + runners.
Pride Of Arras hasn’t fared well in the Derby draw in 16 and if The Lion In Winter can defy stall 19, he’ll be some horse.
Final declarations for Friday’s Coronation Cup are also in — all the major fancies stood their ground apart from Al Riffa to make a field of seven.
As for the weather, my go-to app is predicting 8mm of rain on Thursday and another 12mm on Derby Day. That could change everything. If it arrives — and in Britain, that’s always a big if — several short-priced runners might be vulnerable. I’ll be on weather watch and have someone walking the track Thursday evening. If you want my final picks for Epsom, you can get them here.
Thursday Racing – Leopardstown Features
There’s Listed action at Leopardstown this evening with the King George V Cup (5.55) and the Glencairn Stakes (6.25) the highlights.
Green Impact, sixth in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket (beaten 6¾ lengths by Ruling Court), drops in grade for the Glencairn and tackles older rivals. He beat Delacroix in last year’s Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster, and that’s the standout piece of form. He’s short in the betting so not one for me, but if he bounces back to his juvenile best, he’ll be hard to beat.
In the King George V Cup, Acapulco Bay a winning juvenile looks the one to beat on form. He was last of five behind stablemate Delacroix in last month’s Derby Trial here but that was a hot race, and he has the pedigree to do better with time. Ryan Moore is booked — always a clue.
That said, several rivals are open to more progress:
Arouet was well backed when winning a maiden at Roscommon (1m 2½f). The step up to 1m 4f should suit and there’s more to come.
Dawn Spirit made all to win an auction race at Cork on good ground and shaped like this longer trip would be ideal.
Zahrann improved on his debut second to win a Cork maiden and looks a staying type in the making. This is just his third start.
It looks a deeper race than the market suggests. A few of these could be Group performers in time.
In Tomorrow’s column, I’ll have a full look at the Oaks and Coronation Cup.
Good luck with your Thursday bets,
John