Do’s And Dont’s

Good afternoon all,

Apologies it's a little late, I'm not in great shape at the moment and I'm trying to get myself well for next week!

As is usual around this time, here's a list of my own personal do's and dont's for next week. I hope you find them of some use.

Don’t be scared to back a few in the handicaps.

Cheltenham is one of the few times of the year (Royal Ascot, Aintree and to a degree, York and Goodwood the others) where you can back quality horses at big prices. The cut-off for most of the handicaps is around the 135 mark, so anything you are backing has plenty of natural ability. Something has to be the outsider, and bookmakers frequently make the rags too big a price, particularly now the new industry SP system has kicked in. Last year I did a piece that showed the number of 40-1 plus winners had risen dramatically overall since the introduction of the industry SP, whereas at the front of the market the top two were normally shorter than you’d find on-course. So if you fancy a few at big prices, don’t be scared to adopt a slightly more scattergun approach than maybe you would do normally.

Use the extra place races to your advantage

Extra places are now part-and-parcel of the betting scene online, with the likes of Skybet and Hills leading the way. The number of times they save your bacon over a year seems high (to me, anyway!) and it’s changed the way we view a race. The number of times I find myself shouting “for ****’s sake, get sixth” at the telly means my neighbours must wonder what I’m on.

What I would say is this – the prices you’ll get offered at 10am in the morning will bear little relevance to what will be offered come racetime, particularly if you’re backing the outsiders again. Unless you can be absolutely sure that you will beat the price, don’t take what’s offered and take SP instead. The markets are strong and will hold up, and you’ll come out on the right side more often than you will taking a price in a market loaded with margin in the morning.

If you are going….

If you are lucky enough to be going and fancy one of the favourites, back them on-course with one of the books. They won’t be changing their modus operandi – they’ll still want to get the jollies in the book and you’ll get Betfair price, or indeed better, with those that still make a card and bet to their opinion. (If you don’t think that happens, you really should be at Southwell. 7-2 a 4.3 chance on Betfair on Monday from one book, no commission. He got it beat.) As stated previously, the front two are normally shorter online than in the ring, so shop about and indeed, ask for a price. Plenty will accommodate you.

Have an each-way bet in the Turners now (NRNB, obviously)

I reckon we’ll get four or five runners at most. El Barra makes some appeal at a price. Have a bet now, whilst there's still three places on offer….

Don’t get lured in by distance bets

You know the ones – usually an odds-on favourite to win by x number of lengths. You’re effectively having a double on a single, and they’re loaded with margin in the bookmakers favour. It won’t be soft/heavy next week, and I’m not expecting the winning distances to be huge. If you fancy the odds-on pokes, fine, but just back them as regular singles.

Don’t despair if Day 1 goes badly.

It’s very easy to start panicking if you’ve done it in on Day 1, thinking you must be doing something wrong and changing your systems around. Don’t. We all have bad days and finding winners at Cheltenham is tough. If I can back three or four double-priced winners on the week and back that up with a few places at huge prices, that’ll do me. Remember, when you’re backing winner after winner you’re never as good as you think you are, but when you’re backing a string of losers, you’re never as bad as you think you are either.

And finally…..

Enjoy the week, whether you’re going or viewing from the sofa!